The worst case Scenario! Manticore has Fallen!

Quinlan73 wrote:

Roguevictory wrote:I think you're doing Roger III a grave diservice by claiming his survival would lead to Manticore's downfall. Elizabeth is a great Queen but Roger was far from a horrible ruler.

Agreed, He was assassinated because of his anti-Haven stance. If he's left in power he just has more time to convince people he's right. Elizabeth, on the other hand, had a more difficult time of that because many in Parliament not in the know assumed she just had some crazy vendetta against Haven. They didn't take her animosity seriously as a result. If Roger III survives Haven would fall apart decades sooner IMO.

Haven timed his death to freeze Manticore's hand, when it jumped for Trevor's star. If Roger was on the Throne and survived the assignation attempt, it is very possible that the war could have started early, with a much smaller RM capital fleet.

kzt wrote:In 6 months the SL has full up fusion powered MDMs in production on a few dozen planets, plus has full blueprints on all RMN ships, LACS, drones and complete design specs on RMN seekers, jammers, countermeasures, fire control systems and whatever they have on the RHN.

Things are going to get very, very ugly.

It would take the SL years to develop and build their own MDMs, upgraded LACs and RMN pent-aids, jammers, CM, FCS and the ships to use them. Mostly because they would have to develop the tools to build them in the first place. The Manticorans would have destroyed their own factories and manufacturies and storehouses to keep them out of SL hands. And in the meantime the scattered RMN, the GN and the RHN would come bearing down on the Manticore system to kick out the SL/SLN.

All of that is assuming that Filareta and his forces would face very heavy pressure against them by the population and it's doubtful how much of his fleet would survive beating down the orbital forts. Those things are -tough- and given the full upgrades and shoals of pods they have, the SLN would pay an extremely heavy price reducing those forts to debris.

Either way the SLN would not hold onto the Manticore system for very long and given the free press the GA allows in, it would be extremely hard for even the Mandarins to justify the carnage and atrocities the SLN and Gendarmerie would leave behind on the population before they were forcefully removed from the system. The physical damage to the system and planets would hurt the Manticorians badly, but the PR hit the League would take would be immense since it would be very very hard to rationalize how the SLN/Gendarmerie acted against the population.

Zakharra wrote: It would take the SL years to develop and build their own MDMs, upgraded LACs and RMN pent-aids, jammers, CM, FCS and the ships to use them. Mostly because they would have to develop the tools to build them in the first place. The Manticorans would have destroyed their own factories and manufacturies and storehouses to keep them out of SL hands.

No. Where do you think the NEW Manticoran factories are coming from? Who built those tools?

Lets see;
The RMN has task forces and strike forces scattered all over hell and back covering the Lacoon II wormhole acquisitions, Talbott, Silesia, Matapan and severa other places including the Junction and the various termini.

A LOT of RMN ships are out and about "working".

IF an SLN strike captures the three major planets in the Manticore Binary system and proceeds to "subdue" them, I suspect that ONE option would for various forces to tear a new one in several targets starting with Sol and continuing on to major SLN base/logistics centers.

Grayson with or without Honor being alive, would go be faces with caving into SL pressure - which the KNOW would bring all sorts od opression-- beyond the initial "occupation" and hand over to OFS-- could just go Biblical on whatever they can or decide to reach for SL and its major partners.

Haven will see the writing on the wall and essentialy do the same. The Aldermani would probably want to join and cooperate with Haven, Grayson and the Free Royal Manticore Navy. Maya and Erwhon may also feel compelled to come into the mix because by the time the SLN gets lined up to make yet another attach on the Manticore system, Maya - and Erwhon - will most likely be out of the shadows with their setting up an alliance with an Independent Maya Sector.

At this point, things could get apocryphal since- given the kind and gentle nature of OFS and the pushing of the Alignment- the damage and devistation visited on the Manticore population will make it very clear that the only way to prevail- hell, even survive- against the SL at this point is to burn everything that the former GA and friends can reach that is in any way in "enemy" hands.

Of course this would then lead to the Alignment pumping genetic slave soldiers and Alpha etc line "managers" out of Darius and repopulating it in their own image.

Roguevictory wrote:
I think you're doing Roger III a grave diservice by claiming his survival would lead to Manticore's downfall. Elizabeth is a great Queen but Roger was far from a horrible ruler.

Sorry. I should have clarified to say that these were not all "Doom, defeat, and destruction" scenarios. Some of them (two) were "It got better."
For example, the plot I was referencing regarding Mueller was the one in Ashes of Victory not Flag in Exile.

Tom wrote:

Roguevictory wrote:
I think you're doing Roger III a grave diservice by claiming his survival would lead to Manticore's downfall. Elizabeth is a great Queen but Roger was far from a horrible ruler.

Sorry. I should have clarified to say that these were not all "Doom, defeat, and destruction" scenarios. Some of them (two) were "It got better."
For example, the plot I was referencing regarding Mueller was the one in Ashes of Victory not Flag in Exile.

Ah, I wasn't quite sure you'd referenced that plot, or FiE. Yes, Mueller having been caught because the one spying Armsman (cant recall the name off-hand) was assassinated. If that hadn't happened, and Benjamin was able to successfully prosecute, the end result would have been OSJ in sole command of Haven, Pierre in orbit still not "quite" sure if he should topple him. And Sixth fleet drops out of hyper to say "surprise! Surrender or else"


bunch of what-if plots, just some nice little fun. I think most of us have, at one time or another, speculated on "what-if..." scenarios, it'd just be interesting to see how DW himself thinks events may have changed if some "key events" had gone the differently. Some may have been for the better, others tragically wrong.

The one thing that's missing is the aftermath of the SLN defeating the RMN in the battle for Manticore. It would at best, result in a phyrric victory for the SLN. Can you imagine the orbital junkyard, the Manticore system would look like.

If you really want a worst case, Haven opens the 1st war by sending their entire 1st line navy directly to Manticore A. No silly incidents or feints, just a total commitment strike out the a blue sky, with a fleet driving directly at both Manticore and Spinx. Which is essentially what they had done in all their previous conquests.

Given that a large portion of the RMN was busy protecting allies etc, this should result in overwhelming mass at the point of contact.

kzt wrote:If you really want a worst case, Haven opens the 1st war by sending their entire 1st line navy directly to Manticore A. No silly incidents or feints, just a total commitment strike out the a blue sky, with a fleet driving directly at both Manticore and Spinx. Which is essentially what they had done in all their previous conquests.

Given that a large portion of the RMN was busy protecting allies etc, this should result in overwhelming mass at the point of contact.

No kidding. Or imagine the BOM happening at the beginning of the second round before Apollo or the RMN had a chance to recover from the Janacek build down...

Don

Theemile wrote:


Haven timed his death to freeze Manticore's hand, when it jumped for Trevor's star. If Roger was on the Throne and survived the assignation attempt, it is very possible that the war could have started early, with a much smaller RM capital fleet.

If they were worried enough to set up his death as a means of paralyzing Manticore while they seized Trevor's Star they could very well abort the operation as soon as they realize that he's still alive however.