Raid on Sol System-Another Option

I see the reasons for not attacking Sol directly. I know that there is textev for not creating a rallying point by attacking humanity's home system.

But here is an alternative... Why not cutworm style raids on the other SL core systems, say starting with the largest and most populous and industrialized, working through the next 10 in descending order.

It would certainly underscore the impotence of the League to protect its members, which is certainly the point the GA wants to drive home.

Don

drothgery wrote:It's not really possible for them to frame anyone for it. The only way they could do it is via a spider attack (even if they have a sufficiently powerful 'conventional' force tucked away, there's no way they could convince even the SLN that it was someone else), and even the Mandarins would reach the obvious conclusion that the same people who attacked Manticore and Grayson attacked them too.

Remember that space station that blowed up at just the right moment?

Considering the fact that Sol doesn't have any manufacturing industry to talk about (as I understand it) there is really no need to attack, a blockade will work just fine since Sol is dependent on goods manufactured elsewhere.

The implementation of Lacoon 1+2 are just the first stages, when the League starts fracturing we will see independent "protectorates" popping up all over the place and no-one will spare Sol a second thought.

n7axw wrote:But here is an alternative... Why not cutworm style raids on the other SL core systems, say starting with the largest and most populous and industrialized, working through the next 10 in descending order.

That would have most of the same problems as attacking Sol directly. I'm sure that there are several core systems that are so intricately entwined with the SLN that they'll get a full cutworm style raid.

But the general idea is to limit military action to the SLN and any systems that self-identify as "Solarian."

By your targeting criteria, Beowulf would be high on the list to devestate and that would obviously be a bad idea. I may well be that the largest and most populous system would be among those most disenchanted with the way the Mandarins are (mis)handling Manticore and Beowulf; those would also be the systems most likely to respond to diplomatic overtures.

kzt wrote:

drothgery wrote:It's not really possible for them to frame anyone for it. The only way they could do it is via a spider attack (even if they have a sufficiently powerful 'conventional' force tucked away, there's no way they could convince even the SLN that it was someone else), and even the Mandarins would reach the obvious conclusion that the same people who attacked Manticore and Grayson attacked them too.

Remember that space station that blowed up at just the right moment?

To frame someone you've got to have at least a minimally believable scenario. The New Tuscany incident was only believable to one SL officer who didn't bother to check anything.

An attack on Hyperion One isn't in the same class, regardless of how it's done. Among other things, Hyperion One is at least 4 lm inside the hyper limit, so it's not possible to attack it without either being visible for enough time for the ships to be identified, or not being visible at all.

Now, the Mandarins might want to spin it for public consumption, but that's not going to fly with the SLN officer corps. They've got the sensor records to know that they either didn't see the attackers, or the attackers didn't fit the Manticoran ship and attack profile.

Joat42 wrote:Considering the fact that Sol doesn't have any manufacturing industry to talk about (as I understand it) there is really no need to attack, a blockade will work just fine since Sol is dependent on goods manufactured elsewhere.

The implementation of Lacoon 1+2 are just the first stages, when the League starts fracturing we will see independent "protectorates" popping up all over the place and no-one will spare Sol a second thought.

What? If I remember right, the Sol system is still one of the main manufacturing systems in the League. The industrial facilities in orbit around Mars are huge and count for a -lot- of the League's industrial output. The Sol system isn't a has been or a ancient relic producing nothing. It's still vibrant and active and has a thriving economy, even if it is starting to feel the pinch of the shipping shortage and Lacoon I and II

Weird Harold wrote:

Zakharra wrote: If the core of the SL and a good portion of the Shell and Protectorates hold together, the GA (Manticore mainly) is screwed if it doesn't make its moves. Playing just an economic game is a losing game if there's no plan for a military option.

You really do need to read Storm From The Shadows and/or the Oft-Quoted Paragraph.

There is a "plan" for "a military option" in the Harrington Doctrine:

The Oft-Quoted Paragraph
SftS Ch 44 wrote:... In other words, once we break the League militarily, once we splinter it into multiple, mutually independent star nations, we have to see to it that none of those star nations have any motive to fuse themselves back together and gang up on us all over again."

And if those parts don't break apart despite the GA pounding on them? Continual military action with the intent to split up the League if it doesn't break up like the GA wants it to, has a very high chance of pissing off a LOT of worlds. Even if the GA can do it militarily (which is very likely), politically they risk creating the military monster they are trying to prevent from forming. By forcefully breaking apart the larger fragments, they risk angering the systems themselves and giving them incentive to reform into a newer, more powerful and more effective version of the League, or whatever the successor state(s) is called.

ALL of the plan Honor is putting out is risky, even if it does work. But Honor should remember the first rule of combat; 'No plan ever survives contact with the enemy'. For Honor's plan to work perfectly, would be a literal miracle since doing difficult things in war tends to be fairly hard and simple things difficult. The more complicated a plan is, the more it can and will go wrong. RFC obviously has an idea of how it will go, but even he has plans, especially complicated ones, having more than a few stumbles here and there. For it to work near perfectly would be hard to believe.

phillies wrote:
However, as explained in ART, in under two decades...or so proposed Captain Gweon...the Grand Alliance will have a larger economic capacity that the Solarian League.

That would be the same Captain Gweon who is subsequently revealed to be an MA plant, yes?

Also, I'd remind you of what the Republics of Haven were able to achieve in two decades, with a small fraction of the resources of the League worlds.

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:But here is an alternative... Why not cutworm style raids on the other SL core systems, say starting with the largest and most populous and industrialized, working through the next 10 in descending order.

That would have most of the same problems as attacking Sol directly. I'm sure that there are several core systems that are so intricately entwined with the SLN that they'll get a full cutworm style raid.

But the general idea is to limit military action to the SLN and any systems that self-identify as "Solarian."

By your targeting criteria, Beowulf would be high on the list to devestate and that would obviously be a bad idea. I may well be that the largest and most populous system would be among those most disenchanted with the way the Mandarins are (mis)handling Manticore and Beowulf; those would also be the systems most likely to respond to diplomatic overtures.

I guess this does to prove you have to say exactly what you mean. Obviously Beowulf is excluded. Unless we learn something completey unexpected in the next book, Beowulf is no longer a Solarian system.... Forty lashes less one with ye ole wet noodle on me!

Back to seriousness, it is also true that those large systems are the ones who have benefitted from the pillaging of the verge and thus have the most to lose when the applecart is upset. (Shrug)I'm not against approaching them diplomatically.

By some of the logic I'm hearing here, the core should be a fire free zone. Who is left to target? The poorer protctorates in the shell? I'm sorry, gang, this is a war of the League's choosing. Let the League pay the price. You end it by severely pruning back the industrial capacity most likely to enable the enemy to wage war against you. Not to do so would be about the same as to exempt Germany's Ruhr industrial region during WW2.

Don

n7axw wrote:I guess this does to prove you have to say exactly what you mean. Obviously Beowulf is excluded. Unless we learn something completey unexpected in the next book, Beowulf is no longer a Solarian system.... Forty lashes less one with ye ole wet noodle on me!

Back to seriousness, it is also true that those large systems are the ones who have benefitted from the pillaging of the verge and thus have the most to lose when the applecart is upset. (Shrug)I'm not against approaching them diplomatically.

By some of the logic I'm hearing here, the core should be a fire free zone. Who is left to target? The poorer protctorates in the shell? I'm sorry, gang, this is a war of the League's choosing. Let the League pay the price. You end it by severely pruning back the industrial capacity most likely to enable the enemy to wage war against you. Not to do so would be about the same as to exempt Germany's Ruhr industrial region during WW2.

Don

Hi Don,

Your argument seems to be missing the point the the GA can't win a conventional military victory, or at least doesn't think that it can. Even if it were able to destroy every fleet, every shipyard, every missile factory, the GA simply doesn't have the resources to conquer and occupy the League indefinitely. An outright military defeat is perhaps the only think that could spark the sense of unity that the League has always lacked, and if enough of the major systems banded together to work on some analogue of Bolthole, the Alliance would eventually be facing a revanchist League faction that was at the very least capable of taking them on.

The Alliance's only hope for victory is that enough of the League's members will decide that the Mandarins' confrontation with Manticore and its allies is nothing to do with them and they're better of choosing to go their own way. It's not a perfect strategy with a guarantee of success, it's the one that the GA's leaders think offers the best chance of a long-term peace that preserves their independence.

A part of their strategy is to portray themselves to anyone who'll listen as the plucky little star nations standing up to the corrupt bullies of Old Chicago. If they attack the Sol System, the cradle of mankind, the mother world, in any way, even if they restrict themselves to SLN ships and bases and leave the industrial side alone , they won't won't be the underdogs any more. They'll be the Visigoths sacking Rome, the Mongols burning Baghdad and Santa Anna taking the Alamo all rolled into one.