Manticore Plague Years

Duckk wrote:

namelessfly wrote:I am thinking that onlythe top 1/10 of a percent might be able to flee.

What was the population at that point? One million? Ten Million? One hundred million people?

That gives you a wave of refugees of perhaps 1,000 to 100,000 people.

It only takes one carrier to trigger a pandemic in another system, The Manticoran colonists might have been sensitized to the plague pathogen or they might have been resistant to it. If the later were true, it would ream the population of any planet that it got too.

You are massively overestimating the population of Manticore at the time. The Plague struck some 40-50 years after colonization, and the original expedition barely had 50,000 people.

Actually, Duckk (and how many times do I get to correct the MWW Chief Emissary? ), according to the HoS historical section on Manticore, the initial settlement was 93,000 adults and 32,000 children, or 125,000 total. The plague years were approximately 48-68 AL, so presuming that the colonists "were frutiful and multiplied", A population of about 250,000-300,000 seems reasonable at the start of the Plague.

That said, it was hardly a settlement that would lead to any major products beyond expanding their own internal commerce, and was far enough out (Pre-Wormhole) that shippers would probably give it a pass...when there was much more profitable trading closer to the Core.

So very few opportunities to leave, and I would imagine any ships that did approach were warned of the Plague (it would have been irresponsible not to do so, not to mention severly P.O. any other system that caught the plague...and this was pre-Erandi Edict).

IMHO as always. YMMV.

I was going by the expedition numbers from MoH:

...The total expedition consisted of 38,000 adults and 13,000 minor children, and the "rights" to the system had been purchased at auction from the survey firm of Franchot et Fils...

Duckk wrote:I was going by the expedition numbers from MoH:

...The total expedition consisted of 38,000 adults and 13,000 minor children, and the "rights" to the system had been purchased at auction from the survey firm of Franchot et Fils...

Take it up with BU9 next time you guys get together....

Hutch wrote:

Duckk wrote:I was going by the expedition numbers from MoH:

...The total expedition consisted of 38,000 adults and 13,000 minor children, and the "rights" to the system had been purchased at auction from the survey firm of Franchot et Fils...

Take it up with BU9 next time you guys get together....

Either way, it's still a massive inflation, no matter what number you use. The only way you would have reached a million is if each family had 20+ children, using the MoH number, and 9-10 using the BuNine number. Not a reasonable expectation.

As well, where are they going to get the ships from? I doubt more than a handful of people even had ships, and they most probably would have been bought fairly recently. I severely doubt the colony ship would have been dragging hyper capable vessels behind. As well, I imagine the SDF could intercept any vessels fleeing the system.

What I'd like to know is how the colonists expected their new colony to function, if they all expected to be awarded title to resources and lands. Who would extract the minerals and who would work the land. Yes, the owners would do so, of course, but could one family extract enough ore from a mine to supply demand?

There had to be some colonists, at the least, to fill the 'working class' niche in the new society and economy, as no society in which everyone is a 'boss' could possibly function.

hanuman wrote:What I'd like to know is how the colonists expected their new colony to function, if they all expected to be awarded title to resources and lands. Who would extract the minerals and who would work the land. Yes, the owners would do so, of course, but could one family extract enough ore from a mine to supply demand?

There had to be some colonists, at the least, to fill the 'working class' niche in the new society and economy, as no society in which everyone is a 'boss' could possibly function.

You never have been in Texas or Wyoming, have you? Or Vermont.

dr

dreamrider wrote:

hanuman wrote:What I'd like to know is how the colonists expected their new colony to function, if they all expected to be awarded title to resources and lands. Who would extract the minerals and who would work the land. Yes, the owners would do so, of course, but could one family extract enough ore from a mine to supply demand?

There had to be some colonists, at the least, to fill the 'working class' niche in the new society and economy, as no society in which everyone is a 'boss' could possibly function.

You never have been in Texas or Wyoming, have you? Or Vermont.

dr

Where everyone is either a rancher or an oilman, you mean?

Btw, I'm not missing the sarcasm there - you're referring to another analogy I made somewhere else, aren't you?

hanuman wrote:

dreamrider wrote:You never have been in Texas or Wyoming, have you? Or Vermont.

dr

Where everyone is either a rancher or an oilman, you mean?

Btw, I'm not missing the sarcasm there - you're referring to another analogy I made somewhere else, aren't you?

No, not really. Only responding to most recent comments.

dreamrider

PS - BTW, I have seen 'ranches' that were 10 acres...less, even. With their own brand. And 3 pick-up trucks (1 running).

hanuman wrote:What I'd like to know is how the colonists expected their new colony to function, if they all expected to be awarded title to resources and lands. Who would extract the minerals and who would work the land. Yes, the owners would do so, of course, but could one family extract enough ore from a mine to supply demand?

There had to be some colonists, at the least, to fill the 'working class' niche in the new society and economy, as no society in which everyone is a 'boss' could possibly function.

Here's what I picture. Everone is guaranteed some quantity of land, but not everyone will use it. Some will set up their own homestead (we see some of those in the Star Kingdom series) and live off the land. Some will lease their land to others for mining/timbering/etc. Some will work for shops/offices/craftshops/etc. in towns, or work for the mining/timbering/crafts men--they can either live on their own land or lease/sell their land and get homes in the towns. Some will simply live in the towns and let the value of their land grow, knowing they will get good value when the towns expand enough.

SWM wrote:

hanuman wrote:What I'd like to know is how the colonists expected their new colony to function, if they all expected to be awarded title to resources and lands. Who would extract the minerals and who would work the land. Yes, the owners would do so, of course, but could one family extract enough ore from a mine to supply demand?

There had to be some colonists, at the least, to fill the 'working class' niche in the new society and economy, as no society in which everyone is a 'boss' could possibly function.

Here's what I picture. Everone is guaranteed some quantity of land, but not everyone will use it. Some will set up their own homestead (we see some of those in the Star Kingdom series) and live off the land. Some will lease their land to others for mining/timbering/etc. Some will work for shops/offices/craftshops/etc. in towns, or work for the mining/timbering/crafts men--they can either live on their own land or lease/sell their land and get homes in the towns. Some will simply live in the towns and let the value of their land grow, knowing they will get good value when the towns expand enough.

I don't know. It all still seems very top-heavy to me.

Duckk, can we continue this particular discussion here or should I open a new thread?