The Problem with Haven

drothgery wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Given the relatively few million peeps killed [2-3M?] in the first war, the anti Manticoran hate should be considerably diminished even further when the new RoH administration explained in some detail how the CPS lied about almost everything, including providing the very people who did it to confess and explain all the details might reduce the amount of manipulated anger that Eloise and Theisman probably saw as a problem to any long term peace, so I expect they were on this before they got to know High Ridge.

The Committee almost certainly killed more Havenites than the RMN did. Heck, I suspect that's true even if you ignore casualties from McQueen's suppression of the Levelers and (one side of) her later coup attempt.

DarkEnigma wrote:... (I still think its a stretch that even Shannon Foraker could have gathered the manufacturing infrastructure, technical expertise, and sheer engineering genius to achieve parity with Manticore in just a few years, but I'm willing to file that under suspension of disbelief and move on.)...

Weird Harold wrote:Considering that Bolthole was established under the Legeslaturalists and expanded by Pierre and Saint Just, Shannon was a long step ahead of starting from scratch. The only thing added by Pritchart, Theisman, and Forraker was the "Engineering Genius" and Shannon herself provided most of that.

drothgery wrote:Bolthole was not established under the Legislaturalists. Pat Givens thought it was, but this infodump: http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/en ... ngton/65/1 pretty clearly says she was incorrect.

SCC wrote:I think people are over estimating just how many people where on the dole back in the bad days of the Republic. The highest level of of Dolist was 50%, and that was only on Haven itself. I don't know it was just for Novou Paris or the whole plant.

DarkEnigma wrote:(I still think its a stretch that even Shannon Foraker could have gathered the manufacturing infrastructure, technical expertise, and sheer engineering genius to achieve parity with Manticore in just a few years, but I'm willing to file that under suspension of disbelief and move on.)

DarkEnigma wrote:What of the other two issues though? Given Haven's track record (even under Pritchart), I can tell you that the last thing I would be doing if I were Elizabeth would be giving Haven Treecats and Apollo! I might be persuaded into a watchful truce while the threat of Mesa was dealt with but that would be the extent of it!

DarkEnigma wrote:Hell, you could even make a strong case that turnabout is fair play and sabotage or a sneak attack on Bolthole was warranted once its location had been discovered.

lyonheart wrote:I think others have tried to make the point that the huge burden of the Dolists indirectly emphasizes the relative strength of the underlying economy in being able to cope at a better than minimum level, rather than simply collapsing, despite all the socialist garbage the legislaturists had hobbled and sabotaged it with.

...

I suspect the restored constitution probably has several provisions preventing the re-occurrence of Dolism and the welfare state, something that reformed and now proudly independent Dolists probably strongly support.

runsforcelery wrote:Think old Soviet Union command economy factories on a Friday, but with the East Germans being required to purchase Soviet consumer goods rather than the other way around.

DarkEnigma wrote:
We are told through the early novels that Haven had an intractable problem with the institutionalized laziness of the Dolists: masses of people who have grown to expect and demand pay though they do nothing. In fact it was the economic pressure of the Dolist class which forced Haven to begin swallowing up its neighbors (which ironically only created more Dolists).

Given this, how are we to believe that that fundamental flaw in Haven’s economy is not still at work? Should not Haven’s economy still be quite fragile? I realize that Rob Pierre began some modest economic reforms and presumably Pritchart has gone even further in that direction, but we are talking about repairing a systemically flawed system that has been in place for decades (centuries?). This is exacerbated by the fact that Haven has prolog.

[snip]

The same holds true for Haven. They have billions and billions of Dolists who have gotten accustomed to not working. Many have never worked at all. Changing the attitudes and habits of that many people is going to take time. Certainly longer, in my opinion, than the, what, 5 years? 10? since the reforms began. This means that Haven’s economy should still be weak, and the underlying pressures which forced it into conquest should still be simmering, which makes its sudden desire to end hostilities with Manticore somewhat suspect. Even if Pritchart and Theisman are genuinely for peace, surely there must be constituencies in the Congress or other influential places that still look at Manticore (and other systems) with greedy eyes.

[snip]


As I said before, Haven’s underlying economic fragility (not to mention the years of antipathy between the two nations) should create pockets (probably large ones) of anti-Manticore sentiment in its society, but what is even more troubling to me are Pritchart’s decisions during the High Ridge years.

Which leads me to my last point…

The Empress Has No Clothes

Given all of the above, and her personal enmity towards Haven for killing members of her family, I found Elizabeth’s actions (and inaction) during and immediately after the High Ridge years to be suspect. In fact, of the entire Honorverse story, I had the hardest time suspending my disbelief on this one issue.

With Operation Buttercup, Manticore finally had Haven on the ropes and victory within reach. I somewhat understand why High Ridge and his cronies decided to accept Saint-Just’s offer of cease fire (although how he missed the political benefit his coalition could have garnered from being the ones to “won the war” and thus co-opt decades of Cromarty’s hard work is beyond me). Elizabeth’s acceptance of that decision however, strains credulity. Yes I understand that it would have set off a constitutional crisis. However, White Haven was weeks or perhaps a few months from being in Haven’s orbit. If Elizabeth had used her authority as commander in chief to order the continuation of Buttercup to its conclusion, then the decades-old threat of Haven would finally be ended and her star nation could deal with the fallout at its leisure in peace.

She is a highly intelligent and savvy leader, so she couldn't have missed the import of this decision, and she has far to much integrity to put keeping her own position over the welfare of her star nation. How she could have let this opportunity to finally end the Havenite threat after being under its pall for decades slip away?

In fact, I can’t remember a single time where Elizabeth uses her executive authority. She has often goaded, cajoled, and threatened, but I can’t remember a time where she countermanded Parliament even once. Perhaps that is simply because she and Cromarty were of a mind most of the time, but she would do well to remember that power unused is the same as having no power at all (see the current British royalty for reference. I often wonder what would happen there if the Queen decided to utilize her theoretical power after all this time).

Tenshinai wrote:

DarkEnigma wrote:(I still think its a stretch that even Shannon Foraker could have gathered the manufacturing infrastructure, technical expertise, and sheer engineering genius to achieve parity with Manticore in just a few years, but I'm willing to file that under suspension of disbelief and move on.)

What parity? They are still grossly inferior in just about every way. Which is exactly why they have been forced to make up for it in whatever way works.

They build ships slower, their missiles are less effective yet still noticeably larger, their software is "crap", their computer hardware clearly inferior, their average standard of living pathetic in comparison with Manticore...

Etc. etc. etc..

Tenshinai wrote:

DarkEnigma wrote:What of the other two issues though? Given Haven's track record (even under Pritchart), I can tell you that the last thing I would be doing if I were Elizabeth would be giving Haven Treecats and Apollo! I might be persuaded into a watchful truce while the threat of Mesa was dealt with but that would be the extent of it!

And then you would loose.

DarkEnigma wrote:Hell, you could even make a strong case that turnabout is fair play and sabotage or a sneak attack on Bolthole was warranted once its location had been discovered.

That idea makes you look like a complete moron. The Malign would totally LOVE to have you in charge of any potential enemies.