Spoilers - Toll of Honor

tlb wrote:Show me the text for this. Where does it state that the ships on loan from Home Fleet did not have to be returned? Where does it state that White Haven was recalled because of the political situation?

Is this in the new book? Because it is not in the original text.

It's not stated that Home Fleet needed its ships back either after the magnitude of the victory, only that their absence could be painful if Haven had decided to attack the home system instead of Yeltsin's star.

You and I know that Haven was in no position to do that after losing at Seaford and Yeltsin. Therefore Home Fleet didn't need any ships back.

As for the political situation, it's literally on the back of the new book:

She’s come home to find that her wounds, her ship’s brutal damage, the deaths of so many friends, were the fault of an arrogant, aristocratic coward who broke and ran in the face of the enemy. Who left her ship to pay the price for his craven desertion under fire. And whose powerful political allies are determined to protect and preserve him at any price.

They have held hostage the declaration of war until Lord Pavel Young escaped the consequences of his cowardice. They didn’t care what it cost the Navy. They didn’t care what it cost the entire Star Kingdom of Manticore. Their tactics have cost the Royal Navy the priceless initiative as revolution and military purges wrack the People’s Republic of Haven, and that lost window of opportunity will cost the Star Kingdom seventeen years of bloody warfare and hundreds of thousands of deaths.

It's also implict in the premise. If Manticore had an opportunity to win the war earlier, it wasn't going to do that by re-stacking Home Fleet to the gills.

tlb wrote:Show me the text for this. Where does it state that the ships on loan from Home Fleet did not have to be returned? Where does it state that White Haven was recalled because of the political situation?

Is this in the new book? Because it is not in the original text.

munroburton wrote:It's not stated that Home Fleet needed its ships back either after the magnitude of the victory, only that their absence could be painful if Haven had decided to attack the home system instead of Yeltsin's star.

You and I know that Haven was in no position to do that after losing at Seaford and Yeltsin. Therefore Home Fleet didn't need any ships back.

As for the political situation, it's literally on the back of the new book:

She’s come home to find that her wounds, her ship’s brutal damage, the deaths of so many friends, were the fault of an arrogant, aristocratic coward who broke and ran in the face of the enemy. Who left her ship to pay the price for his craven desertion under fire. And whose powerful political allies are determined to protect and preserve him at any price.

They have held hostage the declaration of war until Lord Pavel Young escaped the consequences of his cowardice. They didn’t care what it cost the Navy. They didn’t care what it cost the entire Star Kingdom of Manticore. Their tactics have cost the Royal Navy the priceless initiative as revolution and military purges wrack the People’s Republic of Haven, and that lost window of opportunity will cost the Star Kingdom seventeen years of bloody warfare and hundreds of thousands of deaths.

It's also implict in the premise. If Manticore had an opportunity to win the war earlier, it wasn't going to do that by re-stacking Home Fleet to the gills.

The Navy does not act on what the readers know, but on the needs of the service. The ships would be returned to Home Fleet, no matter what you or I may have thought of the necessity. There is a Min-Max principle at work here: things are done to minimize the maximum damage that the enemy can do. The Battle of Manticore occurred because Haven was pushed into a place where their only hope of victory was an attack on Manticore.

I quite agree that the political situation was dire, in the absence of a Declaration of War the Navy was limited. But that lack was the only reason the situation was dire and it was not something that White Haven could do much about. He returned because the ships returned period.

As for the digression on what would follow if a Declaration was passed; the most important thing would be that the situation was no longer dire and the Navy would be free to act. But not White Haven, because he would still be the senior member on the court martial.

tlb wrote:As for the digression on what would follow if a Declaration was passed; the most important thing would be that the situation was no longer dire and the Navy would be free to act. But not White Haven, because he would still be the senior member on the court martial.

Eh, they'd already done their initial counterattack under the Riposte Gamma war plan we learned of in ToH.

Yes the declaration of war would free up funding, and authorize the activation of reserve ships and personnel. But it wouldn't magically create new yard space for repairs, maintenance, and conversion of captured ships; plus activation of said reserve ships -- and after the operational pause following Riposte Gamma they were already complaining that there was zero free yard space.

And that's with them cutting back on maintenance cycles to keep ships at the front. Which short term reduces demand on the yards -- though long term it'll require more yard time to recover from deferring that maintenance. (Time shifting maintenance is a net loss; total maintenance required goes up. You just do it later)

I don't know that war funding would have allowed them to pull those ships back sooner for yard time -- not if the yards were already full. You'd first need the funding to expand the yards; which takes time. Time during which you're still stuck juggling to much demand against too little resources.

Don't get me wrong -- they need that war funding and authorization. I just don't know that they'll be able to immediately launch major follow-up operations. Physical realities might still demand a multi-month operational pause from the RMN wallers. (Though of course with a declaration of war they'd be free to turn their CruRons and BatRons loose against rear area Peep systems and shipping -- though they'll then run into all those old BBs. But at least it'd keep some pressure on the Peeps as the Pierre regime is trying to solidify their grip on power)

tlb wrote:As for the digression on what would follow if a Declaration was passed; the most important thing would be that the situation was no longer dire and the Navy would be free to act. But not White Haven, because he would still be the senior member on the court martial.

Jonathan_S wrote:Eh, they'd already done their initial counterattack under the Riposte Gamma war plan we learned of in ToH.

Yes the declaration of war would free up funding, and authorize the activation of reserve ships and personnel. But it wouldn't magically create new yard space for repairs, maintenance, and conversion of captured ships; plus activation of said reserve ships -- and after the operational pause following Riposte Gamma they were already complaining that there was zero free yard space.

And that's with them cutting back on maintenance cycles to keep ships at the front. Which short term reduces demand on the yards -- though long term it'll require more yard time to recover from deferring that maintenance. (Time shifting maintenance is a net loss; total maintenance required goes up. You just do it later)

I don't know that war funding would have allowed them to pull those ships back sooner for yard time -- not if the yards were already full. You'd first need the funding to expand the yards; which takes time. Time during which you're still stuck juggling to much demand against too little resources.

Don't get me wrong -- they need that war funding and authorization. I just don't know that they'll be able to immediately launch major follow-up operations. Physical realities might still demand a multi-month operational pause from the RMN wallers. (Though of course with a declaration of war they'd be free to turn their CruRons and BatRons loose against rear area Peep systems and shipping -- though they'll then run into all those old BBs. But at least it'd keep some pressure on the Peeps as the Pierre regime is trying to solidify their grip on power)

Permit me to to amend my statement: "if a Declaration was passed; the most important thing would be that the situation was no longer dire [due to politics] and the Navy would be free to act [subject to the normal constraints of war]".

Jonathan_S wrote:And that's with them cutting back on maintenance cycles to keep ships at the front. Which short term reduces demand on the yards -- though long term it'll require more yard time to recover from deferring that maintenance. (Time shifting maintenance is a net loss; total maintenance required goes up. You just do it later)

Some of this wear would have been accumulated by ping-ponging ships back and forth upon the front-line. This is another aspect which would have been helped by rushing Trevor's Star instead of pulling back all the way to Manticore after taking Chelsea.

Taking control of that terminus earlier and perhaps more directly wipes out a chunk of the accrued wear, as well as some of the damage and losses incurred.

In the speed-run scenario frustrated by the politics, the Manticoran Alliance potentially gets Trevor's Star in late 1905 or 1906 instead of ~1910/1911. If they also took out Barnett so much earlier rather than at the end of 1914, Haven is really in trouble.

munroburton wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:And that's with them cutting back on maintenance cycles to keep ships at the front. Which short term reduces demand on the yards -- though long term it'll require more yard time to recover from deferring that maintenance. (Time shifting maintenance is a net loss; total maintenance required goes up. You just do it later)

Some of this wear would have been accumulated by ping-ponging ships back and forth upon the front-line. This is another aspect which would have been helped by rushing Trevor's Star instead of pulling back all the way to Manticore after taking Chelsea.

Taking control of that terminus earlier and perhaps more directly wipes out a chunk of the accrued wear, as well as some of the damage and losses incurred.

In the speed-run scenario frustrated by the politics, the Manticoran Alliance potentially gets Trevor's Star in late 1905 or 1906 instead of ~1910/1911. If they also took out Barnett so much earlier rather than at the end of 1914, Haven is really in trouble.

Another impact of the speed-run scenario, if Trevor's star is taken, Haven may feel forced to "Throw weight at the problem". In short, throwing any ships available, even if they arn't ready for combat. The downside of this (for Haven) - Manticore can rotate intact and repaired forces to Trevor's star within 24 hours, as well as any available missile pods.

As a result Haven may just feed unprepared forces into a meat grinder attempting to overwhelm the Manty defenses as a knee Jerk reaction, and may take non-proportional loses as a result. The only question is, can they wear down a worn out Manty fleet faster than they run out of available viable ships.

And Desperation may cause Haven to do erratic and irresponsible actions.

Theemile wrote:Another impact of the speed-run scenario, if Trevor's star is taken, Haven may feel forced to "Throw weight at the problem". In short, throwing any ships available, even if they arn't ready for combat. The downside of this (for Haven) - Manticore can rotate intact and repaired forces to Trevor's star within 24 hours, as well as any available missile pods.

As a result Haven may just feed unprepared forces into a meat grinder attempting to overwhelm the Manty defenses as a knee Jerk reaction, and may take non-proportional loses as a result. The only question is, can they wear down a worn out Manty fleet faster than they run out of available viable ships.

And Desperation may cause Haven to do erratic and irresponsible actions.

Absolutely. A variation of this is where Haven's reinforcements are en route in penny packets before they find out they've already lost Trevor's Star/Barnett. A small number of Manticoran battle squadrons lurking near the least-time approaches to San Martin/Barnett could continuously rinse those.

If they're able to wait until those Peeps cross the hyper limit - well, some of those ships are just going to surrender without firing a shot, given the gross imbalance they find themselves trapped into.

On a completely different item in _Toll of Honor_, there is a scene where Pavel Young and Georgia are discussing her being outed to the Audubon Ballroom (in _Field of Dishonor_, only her previous identity as Elaine Komandorski was mentioned). I view this to be incompatible to chapter 50 of _War of Honor_ where Anton Zilwicki and Catherine Montaigne explained to her why she should accept their "generous" offer.

munroburton wrote:

Theemile wrote:Another impact of the speed-run scenario, if Trevor's star is taken, Haven may feel forced to "Throw weight at the problem". In short, throwing any ships available, even if they arn't ready for combat. The downside of this (for Haven) - Manticore can rotate intact and repaired forces to Trevor's star within 24 hours, as well as any available missile pods.

As a result Haven may just feed unprepared forces into a meat grinder attempting to overwhelm the Manty defenses as a knee Jerk reaction, and may take non-proportional loses as a result. The only question is, can they wear down a worn out Manty fleet faster than they run out of available viable ships.

And Desperation may cause Haven to do erratic and irresponsible actions.

Absolutely. A variation of this is where Haven's reinforcements are en route in penny packets before they find out they've already lost Trevor's Star/Barnett. A small number of Manticoran battle squadrons lurking near the least-time approaches to San Martin/Barnett could continuously rinse those.

If they're able to wait until those Peeps cross the hyper limit - well, some of those ships are just going to surrender without firing a shot, given the gross imbalance they find themselves trapped into.

With Manticore inside Haven's OODA loop, Haven could easily loose their entire numerical advantage (and more) to Trevor's Star/Barnet . What are the chances Manticore could do another Speed Run to Haven?

Personally, I think it would be irresponsible. Taking Trevor's Star/Barnet would incur too many causalities. While they can quickly be cycled home to be repaired, replacing them on the front lines mean there are few viable reserves at home. Fortifying Trevor's Star with attendant local clean up raids makes the most sense, and just allow Haven's forces to come to them. (I would liquidate the facilities at Barnet - holding that system en force would be too much diversion of forces, and give no material benefit.)

Theemile wrote:With Manticore inside Haven's OODA loop, Haven could easily loose their entire numerical advantage (and more) to Trevor's Star/Barnet . What are the chances Manticore could do another Speed Run to Haven?

Personally, I think it would be irresponsible. Taking Trevor's Star/Barnet would incur too many causalities. While they can quickly be cycled home to be repaired, replacing them on the front lines mean there are few viable reserves at home. Fortifying Trevor's Star with attendant local clean up raids makes the most sense, and just allow Haven's forces to come to them. (I would liquidate the facilities at Barnet - holding that system en force would be too much diversion of forces, and give no material benefit.)

And once you get too far past Trevor's Star you'll no longer be inside Haven's OODA loop -- as their loop shortens as forces get pushed back closer to Haven; just due to dramatically reducing communication times.

And while Manticore gets a partial reset of their OODA loop after taking Trevor's Star - eliminating much of their previous message lag - that starts growing again as they push further and further.

So that's another reason to at least pause after taking Trevor's Star. But yes, I do think it likely that with an immediate declaration of war that there's a very good chance that Manticore could over overrun Trevor's Star before Haven's fleet got their feet back from under them. I just don't think they could make it all that much further -- not until they have a chance to repair the damaged ships from that campaign, refit the ships coming out of reserve, and conversion of the captured units (Oh, and free up the personnel for those by standing down many of the Junction forts).