Last use for SL SD captured

Sigs wrote:That would be 620 SD(P)'s AFTER they deploy 336 SD(P)'s for Beatrice.

No it isn't. That is Theisman's total active SD(P) strength just prior to Lovat. I don't know how I can be any more unambiguous. Hell, every time people talk about the Battle of Manticore, they talk about how all those RHN ships are over 50% of their entire wall. There is zero ambiguity here.

Sigs wrote:

Potato wrote:Let us do the math.

http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/en ... gton/106/1

This fleet chart is for early 1920 PD. The RHN has 318 SD(P)s to start At All Costs. This is from an unquestionable, unimpeachable source: David Weber.

A year and a half later, prior to Operation Beatrice, they have 620 SD(P)s. This comes from an unquestionable, unimpeachable source: Thomas Theisman, who damn well should know exactly how many SD(P)s he has.

This is their peak strength. From 620, they lose almost all of the ~336 they commit to Operation Beatrice. 251 were flat out destroyed, 68 were captured, and <= 17 from Fifth Fleet may have escaped, but that is it. That leaves a total of approximately 284 SD(P)s available to the RHN as AAC ends.

So at no point does the RHN have anything close to 1200 podnoughts.

That would be 620 SD(P)'s AFTER they deploy 336 SD(P)'s for Beatrice. And I stated that they may have 1,200 SD(P)'s in commission, on workup and under construction as in a combination of the 3 rather than them having 1,200 in active service at the same time.

At All Costs, end of Chapter 54 wrote:"You say we'd commit almost three hundred and fifty ships of the wall," she said, finally. "What does that leave us if things go wrong?"

"We'll have a total of just over six hundred and twenty SD(P)s in commission at that point," Theisman told her. "There'll be another three hundred or so older superdreadnoughts to support them, although by that point we'll be decommissioning the older ships steadily to provide crews for the new construction."

"Why not take more of them to Manticore, then?"

"For four main reasons. First, out of that total number of pod-layers, something like a hundred will still be working up. They won't be up to full efficiency, their ships companies won't be fully integrated. In short, they won't really be fully combat-effective
"Second, the force we're committing ought to be enough to do the job, and it's going to be the biggest fleet of superdreadnoughts ever committed to action in a single battle by anyone , including the Solarian League.
-snipping to the rest of the relevant-

And whatever happens in Manticore, the Andy ships that aren't there can't be destroyed. So we've got to retain enough of our own forces uncommitted to provide a strategic reserve against the sudden appearance of the Andermani Navy."

-another short snip-

"Camille could go on very short notice," Theisman said. "Lester's already essentially positioned to mount and execute the operation. Beatrice is going to take longer. Frankly, we'll need at least seven to eight weeks to bring ourselves up to our stipulated force levels. It will take another three weeks or so for the designated units to combine and reach Manticore.

Sorry Sigs, it took them almost 2 months, from shortly BEFORE Lovat happened, just to hit the 620 SD(P) active fleet, plus ~300 old-style SDs which nobody except the SLN regards as primary combatants anymore. They took over 50% of their SD(P)'s to Manticore, leaving 270 SDP's + ~300 SD legacy to guard Haven territory

No mention of exactly how many CLAC's were actually committed or kept in reserve were mentioned at this time, or even afterwards iirc.

Somtaaw wrote:No mention of exactly how many CLAC's were actually committed or kept in reserve were mentioned at this time, or even afterwards iirc.

We know at least 16 RHN CLACs were present, given Honor's post battle summary of casualties. Undoubtedly more were present, given the number of LACs captured or destroyed.

Weird Harold wrote:Seceding from the League forces them into open conflict with the League. Period. Full Stop. That is true for ANY option either of us has listed for successor states.

If a system secedes from the league, it is very doubtful that system would be allowed to rejoin any remnant of the league. The reduced League would, quite rightfully, believe the system is not trustworthy or reliable.

Might depend on what you mean by open conflict, and when they succeed.
It's possible, especially once the wheels start coming off, that a system might expect to get away with simply declaring independence and neutrality - claiming the Mandarin's unchecked unconstitutional behavior as the reason. (Especially if they're one with an SDF big enough to scare aware pirates).

They could plausibly gamble that while the SLN could come and conquer them that doing so would cause the rest of the Core worlds to revolt - so even the Mandarin's aren't stupid enough to do that. (The system might be wrong about that, but there you go).


Also there's constructive non-cooperation possible without formally succeeding, get obstinant and play rules lawyer. Give what little you're constitutionally obligated to and refuse or slow roll anything else (while back channeling to Manticore that you're not aiding the fight against them).
Try to basically play both sides - don't help the SLN chase after the GA or states declaring independence, avoid a formal rupture with the League until you see how things play out, but try to make just nice enough with the GA to avoid their battle squadrons showing up to object to your behavior.

Jonathan_S wrote:Might depend on what you mean by open conflict, and when they succeed.

The word is secede.

Open conflict means a reasonable expectation or possibility of an attack by the SLN.

Jonathan_S wrote:It's possible, especially once the wheels start coming off, that a system might expect to get away with simply declaring independence and neutrality - claiming the Mandarin's unchecked unconstitutional behavior as the reason. (Especially if they're one with an SDF big enough to scare aware pirates).

That is a possibility and those with substantial SDFs -- like the RF core systems -- are very likely to choose that path. But they will still have the example of Beowulf before them and an expectation that they'll have to fight.

Jonathan_S wrote:They could plausibly gamble that while the SLN could come and conquer them that doing so would cause the rest of the Core worlds to revolt - so even the Mandarin's aren't stupid enough to do that. (The system might be wrong about that, but there you go).

There will always be the example of Beowulf before any system thinking about secession. Gambling that they won't be next is wishful thinking. That won't stop a few systems from making the bet and one or two getting away with it.

Jonathan_S wrote:Also there's constructive non-cooperation possible without formally succeeding, get obstinant and play rules lawyer. Give what little you're constitutionally obligated to and refuse or slow roll anything else (while back channeling to Manticore that you're not aiding the fight against them).

Again, the example of Beowulf will be before any system considering this tactic. Beowulf played rules lawyer up to and including secession and rumor has it that 10,000,000 Beowulfans died because they did. They were effectively shouted down in the assembly, at last look their embassy and diplomatic personnel are going to be lynched.

Why would any rational system run that risk?

It won't stop a few from trying it, but they're unlikely to play rules lawyer for long.


Nearly any scenario anyone can think of might happen, there are around 2,000 League systems -- counting shell and protectorates -- after all. Many of those systems are on the far side of League space and may feel that combat won't reach them and the SLN will be busy far away. They'll be wrong to some extent; their assembly delegations will be at risk of several bad things, they'll be economically stressed by Lacoon, and Honor was talking about very long-range deep penetration raids; which from the far end of the Wormhole network could start from 2/3 around the League from Manticore.

All of that ignores any chaos the MAlign might be spreading to get systems to jump to the nascent RF.

Weird Harold wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:Might depend on what you mean by open conflict, and when they succeed.

The word is secede.

I'd blame autocorrect, but I'm on a PC. That's just a plain old typo.

Weird Harold wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:Also there's constructive non-cooperation possible without formally succeeding, get obstinant and play rules lawyer. Give what little you're constitutionally obligated to and refuse or slow roll anything else (while back channeling to Manticore that you're not aiding the fight against them).

Again, the example of Beowulf will be before any system considering this tactic. Beowulf played rules lawyer up to and including secession and rumor has it that 10,000,000 Beowulfans died because they did. They were effectively shouted down in the assembly, at last look their embassy and diplomatic personnel are going to be lynched.

Why would any rational system run that risk?

It won't stop a few from trying it, but they're unlikely to play rules lawyer for long.


Nearly any scenario anyone can think of might happen, there are around 2,000 League systems -- counting shell and protectorates -- after all. Many of those systems are on the far side of League space and may feel that combat won't reach them and the SLN will be busy far away. They'll be wrong to some extent; their assembly delegations will be at risk of several bad things, they'll be economically stressed by Lacoon, and Honor was talking about very long-range deep penetration raids; which from the far end of the Wormhole network could start from 2/3 around the League from Manticore.

All of that ignores any chaos the MAlign might be spreading to get systems to jump to the nascent RF.

The difference, at least potentially in their minds, is that Beowulf tried to withdraw after they'd had a big fairly public military standoff with SLN forces where they (with Manticore's help) forced the SLN to publicly back down. That makes them much higher profile than someone on the backside of the League who isn't making waves.

You might still be right that most people wouldn't try, and at least the first few who do are wrong and get examples made of them. Just not sure the League can afford to get all the way up to military confrontations with everybody who says they're leaving. (Now refusing to do business with them, refusing the let them rejoin, etc I could easily see happening even if the League decided it wasn't worth it to send a fleet right now)

Jonathan_S wrote:You might still be right that most people wouldn't try, and at least the first few who do are wrong and get examples made of them. Just not sure the League can afford to get all the way up to military confrontations with everybody who says they're leaving.

The more examples the SLN makes, the more likely an offer of mutual defense from somebody string enough to stand up to a thinly spread SLN is going to entice someone to secede rather than stay and endure the consequences of trying to hold the League together.

IOW, I think the more the SLN tries to stop systems from seceding the more systems will secede as soon as they think they safely can. With ~~2,000 systems, there will be a degree of safety in numbers for secessionist systems -- the SLN can't police seceding systems, raid GA commerce, and fight deep penetration raids against their bases and shipyards all at once. The only thing they have a chance of doing successfully is attacking secessionists -- and that's where GA military assistance comes into play.

Weird Harold wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:You might still be right that most people wouldn't try, and at least the first few who do are wrong and get examples made of them. Just not sure the League can afford to get all the way up to military confrontations with everybody who says they're leaving.

The more examples the SLN makes, the more likely an offer of mutual defense from somebody string enough to stand up to a thinly spread SLN is going to entice someone to secede rather than stay and endure the consequences of trying to hold the League together.

IOW, I think the more the SLN tries to stop systems from seceding the more systems will secede as soon as they think they safely can. With ~~2,000 systems, there will be a degree of safety in numbers for secessionist systems -- the SLN can't police seceding systems, raid GA commerce, and fight deep penetration raids against their bases and shipyards all at once. The only thing they have a chance of doing successfully is attacking secessionists -- and that's where GA military assistance comes into play.

"The more you tighten your grip, Governor Tarkin, the more systems will slip through your fingers" - Princess/Senator Leia Organa

Weird Harold wrote:
Do you understand what secede means? Especially secession from an organization that has demonstrated a willingness to use force to prevent secession?

For comparison, how many states seceded from the US in the 1860 without going to war against the Union?

How many states successfully seceded from the USSR before Glasnost and the dissolution of the USSR?

Secession is effectively a declaration of war as far as the Mandarins are concerned.

Where do you think that force comes from? Are all the SLN members from Earth or are they from other systems? At what point do you think the SLN will start to fragment? After all we know that the League is not one of those political units that gets complete loyalty from its member states.

How long before the SLN starts to fragment and seeing either individual crews committing mutiny or entire squadrons/task forces switching sides?

The SLN senior leadership has proven completely incompetent, if the political leadership actually tries to use force to keep systems in the League eventually the SLN will fragment as the SLN members start seeing their homes and families coming under attack by the very institution which should be protecting it. We already have examples of this in Maya.

Weird Harold wrote:How many states successfully seceded from the USSR before Glasnost and the dissolution of the USSR?

And how many seceded from the USSR as it collapsed and how many did Russia go to war with? Ill give you a hint, it was not all of them.

Weird Harold wrote:For comparison, how many states seceded from the US in the 1860 without going to war against the Union?

Because those states seceded from the Union and joined a nation already at war with their former nation. How long did it take for Soldiers and officers from the south to leave the US military and take up arms against it?

How long before SLN personnel take up arms against the SLN in order to protect their home systems?

With every system the SLN hits, their moral and loyalty takes a hit and at some point you end up with a fragmented fleet.

You might have a point if the Entire SLN was manned by people from one or two systems, but if the SLN manpower is drawn from the hundreds of core and shell nations not to mention protectorates for the marines the end result would be disintegration of the SLN.

kzt wrote:

Sigs wrote:One keeps your technology safe and protects a trading partner, the other does neither, you lose control of your technology and at the same time you hand over advanced weapons to systems that may have a couple of thousand spacers and nothing heavier than a LAC with unknown loyalty.

There are something like 1500 full members and a thousand plus "sit there and shut up" 'members'. Assume you provide a a dozen squadrons to each that would be something like 3000 crew and maintenance personnel per system. Missile pods need maint, support and control (plus a security force to keep someone from swiping a missile pod or pulling off a commando raid on your facilities), so I'll guess another 1000 or so by the time they are all there.

So say 10 million people and 250,000 LACS.

Which is something more than 100% of the RMN in terms of people and and probably more LACS than exist combined between Manticore and Haven. This is ignoring all the logistic ships that would be needed and the mobile forces you need to keep someone from doing bad things where it's not convenient or reasonable to deal with them with LACS or MDMs, or the 2-3x staff you need to rotate people who are scattered penny packets across the entirety of Human space.

That's what I mean by the issue of scale. You can do this for one or two or ten. But you can't do this for anything like the entire SL or even 10% of the SL without bankrupting Manticore or turning the entire RMN into SL garrisons.

1. The GA can provide them with weapons and ships as long as those weapons and ships are equal to or better than the SLN but do not contain any of the technology that gives the GA the edge against the SLN and the MA/RF.

2. Hit the large concentrations of the SLN ships and the not so large whenever and wherever you can grab them. Try to kick the legs out from under the SLN.

3. Try to convince any captured SLN personnel to be repatriated to their home system if it secedes from the League along with some captured ships.

4. Not every system would require the same protection or even protection at all. But even if they do, giving them state of the art ships and weapons accomplishes absolutely nothing because if they don't have the trained manpower to operate them.

5. Encourage every system to build up its own military forces, even if the GA has to provide assistance in the training wherever possible.