How was Haven supposed to fight the SL (Detweiler Plan)?

Sigs wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:


This is the Two Generals problem. What happens if the second DB never makes it through? Then one fleet moves and the second doesn't, so they won't have mutual support. Defeat in detail.

Not really, if 1st Fleet does not receive confirmation for whatever reason 2nd Fleet will engage anyway,

In other words, the Two Generals Problem.

home fleet wont reinforce Trevor's Star out of fear of exposing the Home System. So 2nd Fleet will face the exact same odds either way only 1st Fleet will not engage. The allied fleet in Trevor's Star will either retreat or be destroyed.

Or drive the attackers away. Don't forget that option.

Second Fleet is meant to engage the 46 SD(P)'s and if the GSN reinforces the picket whatever they send out because there is only so much the GSN will be willing to send anyway which would be pretty easy to extrapolate based on the GSN's past behaviour. Sending 180 SD(P)'s even if they are technologically inferior they should be good as 120 Alliance SD(P)'s if the Alliance Force Multiplier was 1.5. And that is quite unlikely because it would require the GSN to take quite a risk and uncover Grayson a lot further than I believe they would willingly go.

If the force attacking Trevor's Star is 180 SD(P)s, that leaves 140 for the Manticore Binary System, which has more fixed defences, just as many modern ships and again as many older ships. Tell me how that is a good distribution of forces.

Either way, if Third Fleet had been substantially reinforced -- and we know it was -- then the Trevor's Star attack fleet risks defeat in detail. See the other posts about Katanas, BC(P)s and Harrington IIs for more information.

2nd Fleet would be able to take on up to 100 Alliance SD(P)'s and have hopes of winning and 1st Fleet would be able to take up to about 80 Alliance SD(P)'s and hope to survive. If either Fleet feels the odds are against them they can and should retreat. But the Odds are that since interstellar space is pretty large and the rally point for the DB's would be in a system, not the fleets themselves it would be pretty hard to catch them.

At 1.8:1 with untested designs, when you know your technology is not yet up to par with what the enemy had 4 years before? Without knowing for sure that an attack is underway in the Manticore system, they have to assume a portion of Home Fleet could come through and attack them from the rear, thereby reducing the hull number margin even more.

What kind of plan is that?

2nd Fleet can take Trevor's Star no problem with or without 1st Fleet executing, 2nd Fleet is trying to time it to draw away the picket so they take care of the picket and leave 1st Fleet to take on Home Fleet and the fixed defences.

No, they can't. Not if Trevor's Star had been substantially reinforced, which it was. This attack fleet would withdraw.

And that means that if the attack in Manticore was delayed for some reason, the forces in Trevor's Star are free to transit to Manticore to reinforce Home Fleet.

Defeat in detail.

But most importantly since they chose to launch dozens of attacks some of which were upwards to 400 LY away from Haven space I don't think the RHN was particularly worried about complex plans and this is not a complex plan.

Apples and oranges. Thunderbolt wasn't a complex plan. Each of the individual attacks had good chances of winning on their own, without depending on the other attacks happening or failing. Each task force could also withdraw if the defences were thicker than expected without compromising the whole strategic goal.

After all, the two largest operations in Thunderbolt (Trevor's Star and Sidemore) did fail and yet Thunderbolt was a success.

1st Fleet has 150 SD(P)'s
2nd Fleet has 180 SD(P)'s

I highly doubt that the GSN will send their entire fleet to either Manticore or Trevor's Star especially against the wishes of the SKM's government. As good as their intel is they are the stronger member so they know there is always a chance the RoH will hit them first so they have to have a sufficient force to protect themselves. So I cant see them leaving themselves with less than 60 SD(P)'s for Home Fleet. Therefore their maximum deployable fleet is 55 SD(P)'s and unless the RMN is willing to abandon Marsh, Grendelsbane and either Manticore or Trevor's Star the RHN would be able to engage in both systems unless all 137 SD(P)'s(82 RMN, 55 GSN) decide that they need to be in one system and which point the fleet retreats...silver lining the other fleet gets a walk in the park.

That "unless" tells it all. You don't make a plan that assumes the enemy will do what you want it to do. You have to plan for the case when they (reasonably) do exactly what you don't want them to do.

So if the whole RMN, 75 SD(P)s, and 55 of GSN SD(P)s are in Manticore or Trevor's Star, that's 130 against 315, a 2.4:1 margin of superiority in SD(P) hull numbers. That's not enough in my book. The RMN also had 125 SDs at this time, the majority of which would be in Manticore where High Ridge would see them, and they'd be towing pods.

Then you add the CLACs, which the GSN doesn't need to protect its home system, so they could have brought all 24 of them, adding to the 42 that the RMN had. That's more than RHN had (48) and the RHN knows their LACs aren't anywhere as good as the Manticoran/Grayson equivalent. The Havenite LACs are good for defence; the Manticoran design can attack capital ships.

And then you add the BC(P)s. Let's say the GSN brings half of their 40 and they're only as good as half an SD(P) (and I'm underselling them). That's 10 more SD(P) equivalents.

That's not a very good plan. It does resume the war, but it could get the vast majority of your modern wall destroyed. And then what have you got left? Manticore had Invictus hulls half-done in both Manticore and Grendelsbane. Those ships can be ready far sooner than the second wave out of Bolthole. Not to mention that the Grayson Home Fleet forces are intact and could be used to crush the Havenite non-existent defences. And then there are the Andies.

At best, your plan wins a battle but loses the war.

If 2nd Fleet doesn't get the message they don't go ahead with the attack or they go ahead with the attack on their own and hope that Benjamin Mayhew didn't go crazy and send the entire 115 SD(P)'s of the GSN to back up 3rd Fleet. Because anything less than that, the 180 SD(P)'s of 2nd Fleet can face without too much problem.

Please rephrase your plan without "unless" and "hope that".

They are independent attacks, except for the fact that 2nd Fleet is trying to make it easier on 1st Fleet but even if comms go down either fleet can take Home Fleet, the GSN contingent and 3rd Fleet especially since they will be coming in piecemeal. Both working towards the same goal makes it easier, but they don't need each other and they both are significantly stronger than the opponents and the opponents(RMN) are not at the top of their game and both fleets can withdraw at any time if they determine the balance has tipped.

If Third Fleet is close to the Junction and the attack on Trevor's Star is delayed or couldn't be launched, it can quickly reinforce Home Fleet. That means the fleet sent against Manticore is facing all 75 RMN SD(P)s, ~100 SDs towing pods, ~36 CLACs, plus whatever forces the GSN brought. That means the force attacking Manticore is crushed. In this scenario, the SKM loses Trevor's Star.

Or not, because if the attack was delayed, then the could wrap up in Manticore and have time to transit back into Trevor's Star and defeat the other prong. In fact, if the second prong is delayed, it's just as likely not to launch at all because it knows this could happen.

Again, you don't make this plan unless each force can win against the forces from both sides of the Junction, alone and unaided.

And even if it went all according to plan, this is likely to leave the RHN with half to two thirds of its modern wall of battle destroyed, with no second wave coming for another 2 years, while Manticore and Grayson can reinforce much more quickly. And the Andies.

tlb wrote:Disguising the attacks as something Haven might do will just increase the Manticoran resolve.

But that's exactly the point, isn't it? Again back to the third question of the OP and what the MAlign was trying to accomplish. The PRH was known for assassinations, so the assassination of Adm. Webster and the attempted assassination of Queen Berry could be interpreted as Havenite actions. The technology used would have made it suspicious, but not out of the question.

Haven was not known for radical new technologies. Bolthole was a coup, but aside from the strategic factor of being very well hidden, they didn't do more than try and catch up to the technology that the RMN had already used against them 4 years before. And even then it wasn't a complete catch-up, just narrowing the gap.

And even if Manticore fell for it, Haven would know they had neither ordered the assassinations nor performed the attack. They would know for a fact that there was a third party interfering with the war, even if no one else in the Galaxy believed them. Once burned, thrice shy: they'd be very wary of being manipulated again, against the SL. And they would be looking at Mesa for an explanation.

So did Oyster Bay help more than it hindered?

kzt wrote:They are just as survivable as SD(P) in a heavy combat situation. Which is not at all. The trick is to fire off everything you can before you get killed.

Consider the likely outcome if Home Fleet in BOM was composed entirely of BC(P)s. Would Home Fleet have suffered more losses? Hah! But they would have had a hell of a lot more fire control and fired a lot more missiles. So more of Second Fleet would have been destroyed. And in the end a lot fewer RMN personel would have died.

In that particular case, having 432 BC(P)'s instead of 42 SD(P)'s and 48 SD's would have been more beneficial because we know those SD(P)'s and SD's were dead anyway, but in most other situations, the BC(P)'s going against SD(P)'s on anything like even terms they will get chewed up because where the SD(P)'s can take hits and survive a BC(P) will be destroyed.

tlb wrote:In chapter 30 of Mission of Honor, no one believes that it is either Haven or the League that committed this act. All the fingers are pointing toward Mesa:

I think that would change everything if OB had happened after Lovat but right before Beatrice. They may not fully believe it but soon after the destruction of so much industry and the death of so many people the RHN shows up, there will be a lot of questions.

tlb wrote:Well there were people in this forum that were concerned about civilian orbital structures, despite being empty.

At Basilisk Haven could not give sufficient time to completely evacuate (it was a drive-by shooting after all); but we are giving them credit that is not being afforded the SLN at Hypatia. The situation is more similar than you suggest. The quantifiable difference is that one had a death count between hundreds and thousands, while the other had a potential count in the millions. At what point is the line drawn? Would it be okay if the SLN command had extended the deadline so the count was less than a million or would it need to be under a hundred thousand?

In Hypatia, there was no military threat to the SLN as far as they knew at the time they gave the ultimatum. Ultimately I think they wanted casualties, especially there so that's why they gave not enough time. In Basilisk the RHN gave them the most they could. I would also say that in Basilisk it was war, in Hypatia it was a terror campaign.

tlb wrote:If you are in orbit and the planet is resisting your surrender demand, then you are permitted to use things much stronger than civilian grade nukes.

But if they are not resisting my surrender demands but I still want to kill them civilian grade nukes is the way to go? Or a nation sending their special forces teams with civilian grade nukes to kill as many people as they can, to force them to surrender without controlling the orbitals.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:The GSN did send the Protector's Own and a great deal of its forces away from Grayson at exactly that time, so the chances were "good". If the RHN attacks in two prongs and the GSN comes through the wormhole in response to case Zulu, whether Third Fleet comes as well or not, the RHN attack on Manticore is doomed to failure. When Lester did come with 250 SD(P)s against Home Fleet, he wiped Home Fleet but in turn was getting wiped by Third Fleet. If it wasn't for Chin arriving with the RHN 5th, he'd have surrendered earlier. And this is the scenario you've painted here.

I was going to make the point that 3rd fleet at the BoM had to be stronger than 3rd fleet during Thunderbolt (because the RMN has gotten the Marsh squadron back, the first handful of IAN units, and gotten GSN units reintegrated into the Allied fleet so they'd have reshuffled forces).

But checking AAC seems to show otherwise. During Thunderbolt 3rd Fleet had 48 SD(P)s - but during the BoM Truman mentions that her 3rd fleet has fewer SD(P)s that Home Fleet had; and we know Home Fleet had had 42 SD(P)s.

So the additionally avalible SD(P)s apparently went more into reinforcing Home Fleet, and the newest ones going to 8th Fleet (which now seems to have had at least as many SD(P)s as 3rd did)

About the only advantage 3rd might have is that it seems like the non-keyhole SD(P)s were concentrated at Home Fleet (presumably as it was less likely to see battle and to facilitate rotating them through the yards for the lengthy keyhole refit a few at a time) - so 3rd's missile defenses might be better, per SD(P), than Home's.

So you're right, during Thunderbolt 3rd fleet jumping through the terminus to reinforce Manticore would be almost an exact copy of what they actually did during the later BoM. (Except worse since presumably at least some of their surprise GSN reinforcements would accompany them)

Though one big difference is Home Fleet is much weaker (12 SD(P)s during Thunderbolt vs 48 during BoM) - so if Haven was able to throw the same 30 squadrons of SD(P)s, 240 ships, at it they'd have a 20:1 numerical advantage in podlayers instead of the 5.7:1 they actually had during BoM. With those numbers you'd expect Home Fleet to outright kill far less than the 40% (with 8% more heavily damaged and the remaining 52% all damaged and short on missiles) they did historically.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Which begs the annoying question: why didn't the MAlign do that instead of launching Oyster Bay? There's a chance it will be intercepted, true, but if it isn't caught, there are three very big benefits:

1. There's no tipping the hand that the MAlign exists in the first place.

2. There's no revelation of radical new technology and stealth systems.

3. It plays to the stereotype of the Peeps, especially because as you say this had happened before, which would make it far more likely for Manticore to assume it was a Havenite plot.

You are not the fist person to ask that question. So far no answers. Which to me says 'plot'. But that might just be me.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:At 1.8:1 with untested designs, when you know your technology is not yet up to par with what the enemy had 4 years before? Without knowing for sure that an attack is underway in the Manticore system, they have to assume a portion of Home Fleet could come through and attack them from the rear, thereby reducing the hull number margin even more.

What kind of plan is that?

Probably a bad one seeing how mauled Tourville's fleet got charging straight down Home Fleet's throat with almost a 6:1 advantage in SD(P)s plus the donkey (which didn't seem deployed as early as Thunderbolt).

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Apples and oranges. Thunderbolt wasn't a complex plan. Each of the individual attacks had good chances of winning on their own, without depending on the other attacks happening or failing. Each task force could also withdraw if the defences were thicker than expected without compromising the whole strategic goal.

After all, the two largest operations in Thunderbolt (Trevor's Star and Sidemore) did fail and yet Thunderbolt was a success.

I don't disagree with your general point, but I'd argue that Grendelsbane was the second largest, or at least second most important, prong of Thunderbolt.

Higgins had more SD(P)s then Honor (okay, just 1 more) and there was nothing in Marsh worth destroying after wiping our Honor; while victory at Grendelsbane let the Republic remove hundreds of mostly complete SD(P)s before they could be added to the RMN's order of battle. (And those SD(P)s were mostly of more modern design than the ones the RMN already had in operation).

tlb wrote:Well there were people in this forum that were concerned about civilian orbital structures, despite being empty.

At Basilisk Haven could not give sufficient time to completely evacuate (it was a drive-by shooting after all); but we are giving them credit that is not being afforded the SLN at Hypatia. The situation is more similar than you suggest. The quantifiable difference is that one had a death count between hundreds and thousands, while the other had a potential count in the millions. At what point is the line drawn? Would it be okay if the SLN command had extended the deadline so the count was less than a million or would it need to be under a hundred thousand?

Sigs wrote:In Hypatia, there was no military threat to the SLN as far as they knew at the time they gave the ultimatum. Ultimately I think they wanted casualties, especially there so that's why they gave not enough time. In Basilisk the RHN gave them the most they could. I would also say that in Basilisk it was war, in Hypatia it was a terror campaign.

I am not trying to argue that the SLN did nothing wrong; indeed they rightfully got slapped down by Honor for all that they did. The question is simply whether they were technically guilty of an EE violation. Also if they were guilty of such, then what were the differences between Hypatia and Basilisk?

I do not think that a declaration of war enters into it, the League was operating under an expansive interpretation of the self-defense clause. They wanted damages, which could include casualties, to make others rethink their positions.