Long term consequences of the League's collapse

Zakharra wrote:1. I think what you're missing is that the Solarian economy includes the planetary economies since those plants economies require and rely on interstellar transportation of freight in the form of raw material and finished goods and food. The removal of the Manticore merchant marine means a huge hole has been blown in the ability of commerce to flow in the League. The closing of the Manticore WHJ and GA space, and every other junction the GA can get a hold of are more hammer blows to the Solarian economy.

You may have a very good point about core worlds importing food, but I think you're overestimating the interconnections in the Solarian economy; Remember that individual members have the ability to directly tax their citizens so the individual planetary governments aren't as directly dependent on trade as the League bureaucrats.

I think famine is more likely to stress core world governments than economic turmoil. Unfortunately, we don't have any breakdown of agricultural vs industrial vs fat-cat luxury worlds in the Solarian League, so there's no way to predict how much famine is going to drive events.

Zakharra wrote:

SWM wrote:I have two points.

First, I am not convinced that all those systems rapidly-breaking Solarian League will be in nearly the financial straits that some people have suggested. Lacoon I and II has been devastating for the Solarian League, but that is because almost all of the League income is from tariffs and fees on interstellar shipping. But I don't believe that the individual member systems of the League are anywhere close to that dependent on interstellar shipping. They will be hurt somewhat by Lacoon I and II, but I don't think they will be crippled. They will have plenty of money to invest in whatever they consider critical.

Second, I don't think the post-collapse period will be nearly as violent as some people have suggested. Yes, the galaxy will be more dangerous, but I don't think that thousands of pirates and rogue states are going to come to the door the instant the League breaks up. Yes, there will be more pirates, including including the occasional SLN or SDF ship that decides to try out eye patches. Yes, there will be rogue states, including some created by admirals who decide to found an empire for their posterity. But it will take some time, and it will not happen everywhere. Some systems will be under pressure right away, but others will find things relatively peaceful, especially if they organize regional agreements.

My basic point is that I don't think things will be quite as bad as has been painted. I agree that most former SL members will be looking toward getting a navy or an agreement with someone else with a navy, but I don't believe that it will be a crisis on every planet (just on some).

1. I think what you're missing is that the Solarian economy includes the planetary economies since those plants economies require and rely on interstellar transportation of freight in the form of raw material and finished goods and food. The removal of the Manticore merchant marine means a huge hole has been blown in the ability of commerce to flow in the League. The closing of the Manticore WHJ and GA space, and every other junction the GA can get a hold of are more hammer blows to the Solarian economy. Transportation has been cut by 40-45% alone and now even more by the remaining ships having to take longer transit times to cross the League. The local systems can survive, for a short time, on what they have in them, but their survival and prosperity depends on a thriving and abundant merchant marine taking megatons of cargo all over the space.

The SL economy was a tightly woven network of systems and merchant ships transporting raw and finished goods, food, luxuries and people all over. that network is badly disrupted and the further closing of wormhole junctures is further disrupting the remaining hauling capacity. It's also disrupting the flow of money and taxes to and from places.

I know that the Solarian economy is the combined economies of all the member systems. But my entire point is that I don't think the Solarian League economy is as badly crippled as you are saying. The Solarian League government is absolutely crippled because it doesn't have any income except what it can extract from interstellar trade. But the individual economies of the member systems will not be as badly affected as the Solarian League government. It can't be--all those member systems have other sources of income than interstellar trade. The way people are talking, it sounds like everyone thinks the entire economy is in the same straits as the League government, and it simply isn't true. It will be bad, but not as bad as people have been suggesting. Many planets will still have money to invest in military infrastructure and research.

2. It's been stated that many systems in the SL, mostly in the Verge and Protectorates don't exactly like each other, but it's also been said that there are a fair number of Core worlds that didn't like other Core worlds. Many worlds will likely not suffer too much in the Core, but all of them will be looking to protect themselves. There's likely going to be Core worlds that join together, and other Core worlds suddenly dream of Empire and either have the muscle to try and build them, or will try to build the forces so they can get in the empire building. Then you have the SLN FF and BF fracturing into competing sections, some parts will strike out on their own to build their own empires, others will likely look to try and keep the dream of the SL (as they see it) alive, but remember for the most part the SLN upper leadership is corrupt as hell and they will be looking out for themselves only. And don;t forget the OFS sector leaders in the Verge and Protectorate. They will definitely be looking to carve themselves out their own little empires and expand them. With no one higher ups or official leadership to stop their ambitions, whose to say that they won't do their best to make a legacy for themselves?

And don't forget the MAlign is going to be covertly and deliberately stirring this pot. They -want- the SL to shatter and be battered and weakened. The best way to do that? Make the states fight each other, then the RF can sweep in and be the peacemaker and protector, and the grateful populations will be glade to join the RF and help bring peace to the human settled galaxy under a new and more efficient style of government.

Yes, I know that too. And yes, the Alignment is going to make sure that the League is shattered. But I don't think it will fall into the cesspool of interstellar warfare and rampant piracy that you suggest. It will be bad, but not as bad as people seem to think.

By the way, David has stated that no League planet is dependent on imported food, and I think he said that was true for any other imports.

SWM wrote:By the way, David has stated that no League planet is dependent on imported food, and I think he said that was true for any other imports.

If that is the case, then the potential for Chaos is greatly reduced. Most of the core worlds would be in a position similar to a UN member if the UN disbanded -- no big deal unless they depend on UN aid or peacekeepers.

Weird Harold wrote:

SWM wrote:By the way, David has stated that no League planet is dependent on imported food, and I think he said that was true for any other imports.

If that is the case, then the potential for Chaos is greatly reduced. Most of the core worlds would be in a position similar to a UN member if the UN disbanded -- no big deal unless they depend on UN aid or peacekeepers.

Guys, you keep forgetting that the Core Worlds are WEALTHY societies. The wealthier any particular society becomes, the more of its citizens' spare cash gets invested in share markets, financial markets and government bonds. Any massive disruption in trade WILL have a disastrous impact on those markets, which will lead to financial ruin for a significant proportion of a planet's population.

And that little scenario I painted in my previous post? Multiply that by hundreds of different export-dependent industries and tens of thousands of companies, and then argue that the disruption in interstellar trade won't have such a bad impact on a planetary economy.

hanuman wrote:Guys, you keep forgetting that the Core Worlds are WEALTHY societies. The wealthier any particular society becomes, the more of its citizens' spare cash gets invested in share markets, financial markets and government bonds. Any massive disruption in trade WILL have a disastrous impact on those markets, which will lead to financial ruin for a significant proportion of a planet's population.

And that little scenario I painted in my previous post? Multiply that by hundreds of different export-dependent industries and tens of thousands of companies, and then argue that the disruption in interstellar trade won't have such a bad impact on a planetary economy.

I never said it wouldn't have a bad impact. I just said that it would not be crippling, as it is with the Solarian League government.

Weird Harold wrote:

Zakharra wrote:1. I think what you're missing is that the Solarian economy includes the planetary economies since those plants economies require and rely on interstellar transportation of freight in the form of raw material and finished goods and food. The removal of the Manticore merchant marine means a huge hole has been blown in the ability of commerce to flow in the League. The closing of the Manticore WHJ and GA space, and every other junction the GA can get a hold of are more hammer blows to the Solarian economy.

You may have a very good point about core worlds importing food, but I think you're overestimating the interconnections in the Solarian economy; Remember that individual members have the ability to directly tax their citizens so the individual planetary governments aren't as directly dependent on trade as the League bureaucrats.

I think famine is more likely to stress core world governments than economic turmoil. Unfortunately, we don't have any breakdown of agricultural vs industrial vs fat-cat luxury worlds in the Solarian League, so there's no way to predict how much famine is going to drive events.

It's more than that. As hanuman pointed out, the systems are all exporters to a large extent. It's a highly interwoven network that keeps the League together. Each system is fairly dependent on other systems, for raw materials, for good and food to buy, for good and food to sell, for transportation of people and information, it's all connected. Now 40 to almost 50% of the transportation network that hauled all of that has been yanked out from under it and the junctions that let many goods move faster have been cut off. That's going to affect how the system reacts. It suddenly became much harder to get goods and raw materials and people in and out. What interstellar trade that exists is suddenly more expensive, takes longer and every ship suddenly has their choice of cargo to take.

The systems that do produce will have a harder time getting their goods to market, getting payment sent to them, paying out to other systems and businesses. With companies unable to get goods to their markets, a surplus builds up, eventually people are laid off, unemployment goes up, this spreads to other sectors of the economy until a downward spiral comes into being. The planets are going to be hemorrhaging money at a time they need it to build their own SDFs and merchant ships, plus the SL currency is likely going to plunge in value, this will send costs shooting up. Whatever happens, the various systems are going to be hurting bad economically.

I know that the Solarian economy is the combined economies of all the member systems. But my entire point is that I don't think the Solarian League economy is as badly crippled as you are saying. The Solarian League government is absolutely crippled because it doesn't have any income except what it can extract from interstellar trade. But the individual economies of the member systems will not be as badly affected as the Solarian League government. It can't be--all those member systems have other sources of income than interstellar trade. The way people are talking, it sounds like everyone thinks the entire economy is in the same straits as the League government, and it simply isn't true. It will be bad, but not as bad as people have been suggesting. Many planets will still have money to invest in military infrastructure and research.

No. The economy is going to suffer a LOT. 40-45% of all shipping is gone, every single wormhole junction has been seized by the GA/Manticore, the SL is having to gear up for a war that they are way behind in preparing to fight. Especially since they need to literally build a fleet to fight it from the ground up.

There are likely very very few SL systems that don't depend upon interstellar trade to push their economies along.

SWM wrote:

hanuman wrote:Guys, you keep forgetting that the Core Worlds are WEALTHY societies. The wealthier any particular society becomes, the more of its citizens' spare cash gets invested in share markets, financial markets and government bonds. Any massive disruption in trade WILL have a disastrous impact on those markets, which will lead to financial ruin for a significant proportion of a planet's population.

And that little scenario I painted in my previous post? Multiply that by hundreds of different export-dependent industries and tens of thousands of companies, and then argue that the disruption in interstellar trade won't have such a bad impact on a planetary economy.

I never said it wouldn't have a bad impact. I just said that it would not be crippling, as it is with the Solarian League government.

It's going to be crippling. If there's no federal government, there's no currency. Every system in the SL depends upon the SL currency. I don't think the oldest SL systems have any form of currency, they likely use the SL has (solarian dollar?). When the system starts to fail, there won't be any other currency to really fall back upon, and the SL is going to suffer rather severe inflation. Stock markets are going to be badly disrupted, stock prices fall, trading slowing.

SWM wrote:By the way, David has stated that no League planet is dependent on imported food, and I think he said that was true for any other imports.

Ok. I can accept that in regards to food. The luxuries market is going to be hurting though. I cannot accept that for other imports. There has to be a lot of import/exporting to be going on otherwise there's not much to tie the various systems together.

Zakharra wrote: No. The economy is going to suffer a LOT. 40-45% of all shipping is gone, every single wormhole junction has been seized by the GA/Manticore, the SL is having to gear up for a war that they are way behind in preparing to fight. Especially since they need to literally build a fleet to fight it from the ground up.

There are likely very very few SL systems that don't depend upon interstellar trade to push their economies along.

I don't think anyone is claiming that systems aren't going to suffer, because they ARE going to suffer. I just don't think that the suffering is going to rise to the level of "Chaos."

Especially since the "Harrington Doctrine" specifies bilateral trade treaties with any system willing to secede and declare neutrality. The MMM can be back in just about any system to restore trade in mere months, at most, once a system secedes from the SL.

No, nobody is dependent on imported raw materials any more than Manticore is dependent on imported raw materials. Asteroid belts or planetoids are common. In addition, the type of shipping needed to move bulk raw material is not easily convertible to other uses even if it does, for some odd reason, have a hyperdrive.

Currency in the SL isn't currency printer up by the SL. David went over this briefly somewhere, but I can't find it. It's run by a loose network of very big banks IIRC. However, this really doesn't even matter on a system level in a military emergency. For example - well before the end of WW2 - by normal standards the Nazis, the Soviets, the UK and Imperial Japan were all bankrupt in 1943-44. This had remarkably little effect on their ability to continue to fight the war.