Insanity: Screening elements in the HV

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:The important gist of my post you dismissed. Again, the Ghosthunters are looking for the MA! Just like when the GA arrived at Galton, looking for the MA! If entities and intelligence services of the SL find out where the MA are located, and they find out that a certain WH leads to it, and if they might happen to find out that there's a window of opportunity such as an undefended end of the WH, and they decide to go for broke, then the SL and their navy is not only relevant...

THEY STOP THE PRESS!

What's irrelevant is how they find out about the WH. And what's irrelevant is why they are deciding to go for broke. What's also irrelevant to the RFN at the time is why they are there and wanting to force their way through. It ain't like they haven't attempted to force their way through a WH before.

And when I trotted pretty much the same thing out to everyone about the GA failing to play by the unavoidable ever present insanity of politics, simply because they had what they thought was incontrovertible evidence, all of you moved those goalposts and fail to accept or believe that the SL, the SL!, will do exactly the same thing??? Really???

Thinksmarkedly??? That can't be you.

Why would they want to force the RF while someone is trying to claim the WH??? Again, really?

Well, Galton wasn't trying to claim anything at the time. It was obvious that they owned that entire system! Didn't seem to matter to that hotheaded Harrington. But suddenly, ownership — pending ownership that is — should suddenly matter to the historically disrespectful and arrogant SLN? Now there's a why?

The last 24 hrs is like I woke up in the Twilight Zone.

Yes, if the author points to the wormhole, then the GA will take it and strongly question those defending it. Maybe as strongly as Galton was questioned. But why do we think that will happen, even with groups like the Ghosthunters searching? Having one end of a wormhole gives no knowledge about the location of the other end, unless a ship comes through from the other side.

Valid points. Therefore I agree. But you're missing the obvious bulls in the China shop, and the gorillas too!

Don't you think all navies in the HV are as aware of what you just said as you are? Even the brain-dead SLN who may not have shown us any gorillas who deserve to be listed on the HV Top Ten Tacticians and Strategists thread, aren't complete imbeciles. So if the SLN shows up at that WH with the intentions of forcing the issue, then it's a good chance that the Ghosthunters search has paid huge dividends. And those dividends could include complete details of what routes to take, interstates to travel, and exits to take after they transit the WH. IOW, they may have obtained the complete driving directions of how to get to Darius! Just like the GA had complete directions on how to get to Galton. Just because Darius’ location is a bit more secluded and difficult to find, just because it is located out in the boondocks, just because it is extremely hidden and has a secret short cut like the BatCave, doesn't mean the Ghosthunters didn't get complete driving directions to the lair.

And the SLN might have been warned (maybe even by the GA) that they should move with as much haste as possible, without any delay whatsoever,,, taking the shortest route between two points, denying the MAN a chance to prepare a party for them; like Galton. I have complete faith that there are people in the SL with more than half a brain, they just didn't get a chance to make a difference in the past.

Somehow the MA found out that Galton was going to be getting a visit. And they had a chance to put a contingency plan in place. One of the Detweilers visited Galton and gave them a warning that unwanted visitors were coming to dinner. And the MA also gave tactical and strategic directions to certain high ranking people making decisions that would affect Galton. They had time to restrict the use of certain technology etc., etc.

If the SLN gets a wind of exactly how to get to Darius, they may want to make their trip as quickly as they can, utilizing WHs if possible. They may have also intercepted classified information about how to transit the WH too. The Ghosthunters are looking for the lair, don't think they aren't looking for the complete address with driving directions as well. I imagine their version of “Google maps” can suggest a longer scenic route in lieu of the time saving route that takes them thru major tunnels, bridges, overpasses, dirt roads, private prooerty, suburbs, wormholes and ratholes or whatever route will get them there faster. They won't be concerned with saving fuel, they'll be concerned with saving lives. By getting there before the criminals can “beat feet” and pull another Houdini. Or worse, have time to prepare a warm warm… warm warm… very warm welcome. Hot as Hell! See the Attacking Darius thread for the correct temperature.
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Legend: to prevent arguing semantics.

SL may include SLN
MA may include MAN.
RF may include RFN, MDF, MAN, MA.


Etc. Etc.

penny wrote:Valid points. Therefore I agree. But you're missing the obvious bulls in the China shop, and the gorillas too!

Don't you think all navies in the HV are as aware of what you just said as you are? Even the brain-dead SLN who may not have shown us any gorillas who deserve to be listed on the HV Top Ten Tacticians and Strategists thread, aren't complete imbeciles. So if the SLN shows up at that WH with the intentions of forcing the issue, then it's a good chance that the Ghosthunters search has paid huge dividends. And those dividends could include complete details of what routes to take, interstates to travel, and exits to take after they transit the WH. IOW, they may have obtained the complete driving directions of how to get to Darius! Just like the GA had complete directions on how to get to Galton. Just because Darius’ location is a bit more secluded and difficult to find, just because it is located out in the boondocks, just because it is extremely hidden and has a secret short cut like the BatCave, doesn't mean the Ghosthunters didn't get complete driving directions to the lair.

And the SLN might have been warned (maybe even by the GA) that they should move with as much haste as possible, without any delay whatsoever,,, taking the shortest route between two points, denying the MAN a chance to prepare a party for them; like Galton. I have complete faith that there are people in the SL with more than half a brain, they just didn't get a chance to make a difference in the past.

Somehow the MA found out that Galton was going to be getting a visit. And they had a chance to put a contingency plan in place. One of the Detweilers visited Galton and gave them a warning that unwanted visitors were coming to dinner. And the MA also gave tactical and strategic directions to certain high ranking people making decisions that would affect Galton. They had time to restrict the use of certain technology etc., etc.

If the SLN gets a wind of exactly how to get to Darius, they may want to make their trip as quickly as they can, utilizing WHs if possible. They may have also intercepted classified information about how to transit the WH too. The Ghosthunters are looking for the lair, don't think they aren't looking for the complete address with driving directions as well. I imagine their version of “Google maps” can suggest a longer scenic route in lieu of the time saving route that takes them thru major tunnels, bridges, overpasses, dirt roads, private prooerty, suburbs, wormholes and ratholes or whatever route will get them there faster. They won't be concerned with saving fuel, they'll be concerned with saving lives. By getting there before the criminals can “beat feet” and pull another Houdini. Or worse, have time to prepare a warm warm… warm warm… very warm welcome. Hot as Hell! See the Attacking Darius thread for the correct temperature.
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Legend: to prevent arguing semantics.

SL may include SLN
MA may include MAN.
RF may include RFN, MDF, MAN, MA.


Etc. Etc.

I do not think your points are obvious at all. In the past you have gone to great lengths to emphasis how smart the Alphas are. It would not be smart at all for the Ghosthunters (or anyone else) to find a roadmap to Darius. I am very curious about how the author will get around that point.

The Solarian League will not be taking the lead in hunting the Malign; they are only allowed out of Solarian space with the agreement of the GA. Or the RF agreement for any search in the direction of Mannerheim.

Any wormhole that leads in the direction of Darius will have its exit made impassible for anyone except a Malign ship. Somehow the GA will have to capture a ship with the astrographic information of Darius and that assault will be through hyperspace only.

penny wrote:Don't you think all navies in the HV are as aware of what you just said as you are? Even the brain-dead SLN who may not have shown us any gorillas who deserve to be listed on the HV Top Ten Tacticians and Strategists thread, aren't complete imbeciles. So if the SLN shows up at that WH with the intentions of forcing the issue, then it's a good chance that the Ghosthunters search has paid huge dividends. And those dividends could include complete details of what routes to take, interstates to travel, and exits to take after they transit the WH. IOW, they may have obtained the complete driving directions of how to get to Darius! Just like the GA had complete directions on how to get to Galton. Just because Darius’ location is a bit more secluded and difficult to find, just because it is located out in the boondocks, just because it is extremely hidden and has a secret short cut like the BatCave, doesn't mean the Ghosthunters didn't get complete driving directions to the lair.

And the SLN might have been warned (maybe even by the GA) that they should move with as much haste as possible, without any delay whatsoever,,, taking the shortest route between two points, denying the MAN a chance to prepare a party for them; like Galton. I have complete faith that there are people in the SL with more than half a brain, they just didn't get a chance to make a difference in the past.

If the MAlign is waiting for a warning before placing defenses around their end of the wormhole then their strategists hardly deserve the title "Alphas". Like the Junction, a wormhole that important should have permanent defenses around it.

So even if somebody did somehow capture the astrogation data needed to safely transit the wormhole that should just deliver them into their destructions at the guns of defensive forts and minefields. (That said, capturing that astrogation data is far harder than finding the kind of breadcrumb trail that pointed the search in Galton's direction. That astrogation information has no reason to exist outside of Darius except in the computers of the handful of ships authorized to make that transit -- so you'd have to identify one such ship and then catching it before the navcomp could be purged. (And that's assuming that they aren't taking any extraordinary measures to protect that data)

Jonathan_S wrote:

penny wrote:Don't you think all navies in the HV are as aware of what you just said as you are? Even the brain-dead SLN who may not have shown us any gorillas who deserve to be listed on the HV Top Ten Tacticians and Strategists thread, aren't complete imbeciles. So if the SLN shows up at that WH with the intentions of forcing the issue, then it's a good chance that the Ghosthunters search has paid huge dividends. And those dividends could include complete details of what routes to take, interstates to travel, and exits to take after they transit the WH. IOW, they may have obtained the complete driving directions of how to get to Darius! Just like the GA had complete directions on how to get to Galton. Just because Darius’ location is a bit more secluded and difficult to find, just because it is located out in the boondocks, just because it is extremely hidden and has a secret short cut like the BatCave, doesn't mean the Ghosthunters didn't get complete driving directions to the lair.

And the SLN might have been warned (maybe even by the GA) that they should move with as much haste as possible, without any delay whatsoever,,, taking the shortest route between two points, denying the MAN a chance to prepare a party for them; like Galton. I have complete faith that there are people in the SL with more than half a brain, they just didn't get a chance to make a difference in the past.

If the MAlign is waiting for a warning before placing defenses around their end of the wormhole then their strategists hardly deserve the title "Alphas". Like the Junction, a wormhole that important should have permanent defenses around it.

So even if somebody did somehow capture the astrogation data needed to safely transit the wormhole that should just deliver them into their destructions at the guns of defensive forts and minefields. (That said, capturing that astrogation data is far harder than finding the kind of breadcrumb trail that pointed the search in Galton's direction. That astrogation information has no reason to exist outside of Darius except in the computers of the handful of ships authorized to make that transit -- so you'd have to identify one such ship and then catching it before the navcomp could be purged. (And that's assuming that they aren't taking any extraordinary measures to protect that data)

Luck. Happenstance. Divine intervention. Defection. Or a host of many other reasons that might have betrayed the MAlign.

But! If someone has come calling on you with blood in their eyes. How they found you is totally irrelevant. That they found you is relevant.

I am not saying they don't have defenses. You know how I feel about their defenses.

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=10847

I am saying that it might not be written in stone. And there might be weaknesses to the INFORMED.

But who wouldn't want a warning that they are going to have uninvited guests. The RMN and the MBS had a warning about a big hairy ugly ape headed their way. After all, it is uncivilized not to give your guests a warm welcome.

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=10847

They might simply rely on Intel that they have been compromised; and they may practice drills for a Houdini, the likes of which are unfathomable.

Brigade XO wrote:They might have just ignored the RF. How did the Alignment count on Haven to be successful with it's Short Victorius War and then just almost with a snap of the fingers convert their entire navel to one with whatever superior tech it was discovered Manticore had and then go try to take on the SLN? Did anybody 1st on Mesa and then on Darius consider that if/when Haven decided to take a piece of of the SL as a warning to stay away that the SLN could have just sucked it up and sent a massive fleet -the long way, via hyperspace- and show up in the Haven home system and blow the crap out of it? Send 400 SLN SDs to Haven and you probably wouldn't find quite enough PRH warships to stop them even with their own advances in the war with Manticor.

I think at the outset of the first war, there was no expectation that Haven would turn around and fight the SL. Nor that the Manticore technology would be significantly ahead - no one new that, not even Manticore. The expectation was probably that Haven would (eventually) win against the Alliance and then gobble up all the important systems that were part of the Alliance. With the economic benefit of those, which includes the MBS and the MWHJ, the PRH economy would see a boom for a couple of decades.

Additionally, the need to protect the Junction would see the PRN grow considerably, from the original 450 ships of the wall (plus 374 BBs). I wouldn't be surprised if the predictions were for the PRN to reach 800 active ships of the wall by 1925. Once hostilities start, the PRH yards would then start a crash wartime production bringing the numbers even further up. With the fact that those would be trained crews who knew how to use their ships, they should be able to take a chunk out of the SLN. 1000 PRN capital ships against 2000 active SLN Battle Fleet wouldn't be an equal match, but would gut both fleets. Add a few mysterious explosions taking out key fleet COs in either side and the war is really chaotic.

Whether the SL may try a "Raging Justice" type of engagement is unknown. Remember the MAlign has operatives in the SLN and the SL government, so they may push for the SL to be the conciliatory one and delay such an operation until it's too late for it to make a difference. They could also subtly cripple it, causing a massacre that enranges the Solarian public.

At this point, the RF might have stood up and offered to be a neutral party to mediate the dispute.

Remember, there are all those LDs that are a couple of years from completion and they don't seem to plan on announcing the they are when invisible starships start destroying most of the major orbital structures in all sorts of League systems. The blame is probably -though all the disinformation that will be pushed around- going to be mostly on the League punishing collaborators with Haven or having doing it to cripple the League.

What a grand Alignment plan.

They are a few years from completion now. They weren't when the first war started. It's not likely they were designed yet at all. And I personally don't think the spider drive breakthrough that allowed them to exist had happened yet.

As I said above, I don't think the SL-Haven war was predicted to happen in the 1920s. It might have been the spider drive breakthrough that move The Plan timetable up because now the MAlign thought it could indeed implement the necessary steps to cause chaos. That and, having unexpectedly won against Haven in the first war, Manticore went around and found a wormhole that brought it closer to Mesa.

penny wrote:The important gist of my post you dismissed. Again, the Ghosthunters are looking for the MA! Just like when the GA arrived at Galton, looking for the MA! If entities and intelligence services of the SL find out where the MA are located, and they find out that a certain WH leads to it, and if they might happen to find out that there's a window of opportunity such as an undefended end of the WH, and they decide to go for broke, then the SL and their navy is not only relevant...

Well, of course they are, plus all the GA intelligence services too. This is the only way they're going to discover there's a wormhole in the first place: through painstaking intelligence operations. Because finding it by accident in Felix is too unlikely.

At that point, if they do send a ship to scout the Felix system and find Mannerheim there, Mannerheim is in trouble to explain why they are protecting the wormhole that the Alignment is exploiting.

But here's the thing: the SL is again irrelevant here because the whole GA will also know. If this event happens in the next decade, the GA navies will still be nastier than the SLN. It will be the Grand Fleet reformed. Adm. Kingsford may want to send his people too, but the Grand Admiral commanding the GF will be from the GA.

What's irrelevant is how they find out about the WH. And what's irrelevant is why they are deciding to go for broke. What's also irrelevant to the RFN at the time is why they are there and wanting to force their way through. It ain't like they haven't attempted to force their way through a WH before.

Correct, it's all irrelevant at this point.

Why would they want to force the RF while someone is trying to claim the WH??? Again, really?

Well, Galton wasn't trying to claim anything at the time. It was obvious that they owned that entire system! Didn't seem to matter to that hotheaded Harrington. But suddenly, ownership — pending ownership that is — should suddenly matter to the historically disrespectful and arrogant SLN? Now there's a why?

The last 24 hrs is like I woke up in the Twilight Zone.

I agree, it doesn't matter under these conditions. I thought you meant an accidental find in the Felix system. If instead the intelligence services know the wormhole is there and can confirm it's being used by the MAlign, then it's game over for the RF.

And it doesn't matter at all how big the RF is. It's not going to outproduce both the GA and the SL. The combined "good guys" force can send 200 SDs to each of the RF members and just force them to capitulate. Or send 600-1000 to Mannerheim, at which point no matter how many surprises the MAN may have secreted away in the Mannerheim system is going to stop Mannerheim from being conquered.

I don't think the MAN would defend the RF at all at this point. The RF is expendable in the grand scheme of things, if Darius survives. Against a combined GA+SL force and industry, the RF can't win, so it would be better for the MAlign to let it burn. It may even provide the match.

penny wrote:Luck. Happenstance. Divine intervention. Defection. Or a host of many other reasons that might have betrayed the MAlign.

But! If someone has come calling on you with blood in their eyes. How they found you is totally irrelevant. That they found you is relevant.

Let's be clear on what we're discussing having been found: is it the location of Felix with its wormhole and possible transit vectors? Or is the location of Darius? Because if it's the latter, why would anyone bother going to Felix in the first place? Why would they tip their hand to Darius that they know its there by blockading the Felix side?

If they've discovered Felix, they can't get to Darius. At this point, they don't have to know it is in use by the MAlign, they just need strong suspicion. They can send stealth scout ships to see if there is any traffic and get profiles on the ships that did transit. They can then see if any of them (like the freighters and couriers that the MAlign is using) show up anywhere with agents. They may even catch glimpses of spider-drive triple-skeg hulls, which would indicate a technological breakthrough not shared with the rest of the Galaxy.

But as I said, that doesn't get them to Darius, not even if they've captured the transit vector instructions. The only thing that would is if they captured the protocol to be allowed transit, so they'd attempt to do that under the noses of the RFN guarding Felix and the MAN guarding the Darius side.

In either case, the one thing they wouldn't do is tell the MAlign they know they're there by suddenly dropping out of hyper. They'd first observe Felix and gather as much intel as possible.

I am not saying they don't have defenses. You know how I feel about their defenses.

https://forums.davidweber.net/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=10847

I am saying that it might not be written in stone. And there might be weaknesses to the INFORMED.

Like the aforementioned transit protocol. If the GA+SL intel services capture a courier with its instructions, they could request and be granted a transit to Darius, arrive there and survive long enough to get out of range of the guns protecting the wormhole. Once they're in space and moving in-system, they can hyper out and tell everyone where Darius is.

TBH, I find this less likely a scenario than capturing the location of Darius from some database.

penny wrote:Don't you think all navies in the HV are as aware of what you just said as you are? Even the brain-dead SLN who may not have shown us any gorillas who deserve to be listed on the HV Top Ten Tacticians and Strategists thread, aren't complete imbeciles. So if the SLN shows up at that WH with the intentions of forcing the issue, then it's a good chance that the Ghosthunters search has paid huge dividends. And those dividends could include complete details of what routes to take, interstates to travel, and exits to take after they transit the WH. IOW, they may have obtained the complete driving directions of how to get to Darius! Just like the GA had complete directions on how to get to Galton. Just because Darius’ location is a bit more secluded and difficult to find, just because it is located out in the boondocks, just because it is extremely hidden and has a secret short cut like the BatCave, doesn't mean the Ghosthunters didn't get complete driving directions to the lair.

That has little consequence for Darius. It's bad for the RF and for Mannerheim in particular, because they'll have been found to be colluding with the MAlign. The RF is toast at this point because they can't out-produce the rest of the Galaxy (see post above).

But that doesn't get a transit to Darius. As others have pointed out, the Darius side of the wormhole is defended. There is no known way of forcing your way through a wormhole and surviving to tell the story. The worry in the MBS case of a transit from Trevor's Star - and which later was proven to have been unfounded after all - was that the PRN would come through both hyper and a transit. The GA+SL can't do that to Darius because they don't know where Darius is. And if they did, then Felix and its junction are irrelevant.

And the SLN might have been warned (maybe even by the GA) that they should move with as much haste as possible, without any delay whatsoever,,, taking the shortest route between two points, denying the MAN a chance to prepare a party for them; like Galton. I have complete faith that there are people in the SL with more than half a brain, they just didn't get a chance to make a difference in the past.

No chance in that scenario. If the GA knew something, it wouldn't tell the SLN to move quickly. And no one with half a brain would be attempting to transit through Felix. Just showing up with a fleet in Felix would give the defenders enough time to transit to Darius and make a Zulu call, bringing all the Darius defences up to combat-readiness status.

The only way this scenario could happen is if someone incredibly incompetent is manoeuvred into making those decisions. That's something the MAlign did to the SLN in the past, but it stands to reason that if they knew about an operation in Felix, the last thing they'd do is send a fleet. If those agents still embedded in the SLN after the treecat-led purge need to send a tripwire to Felix indicating it's been compromised and they can't send a courier, they'd instead send a small-ish force as the tripwire.

Somehow the MA found out that Galton was going to be getting a visit. And they had a chance to put a contingency plan in place.

No, they didn't. You may be reading between the lines that they did - and who knows, it might be correct - but all the textev points to that the discovery of Galton was entirely unexpected. Yes, they had contingency plans in place, but that's what the MAlign does: plan. Turning Galton into the militaristic faction seeking war with the Galaxy was a decades-old decision. It probably dates back all the way to the discovery of Darius and Felix, 180 T-years ago. The Alamo Contingency is probably more recent, only 15 T-years or so old, dating back to the spider-drive breakthrough and starting of shipyards around Darius Gamma.

One of the Detweilers visited Galton and gave them a warning that unwanted visitors were coming to dinner.

That's not what happened. Benjamin Detweiler came to Galton in his "mea culpa" apology tour not because he thought Galton had been discovered (it hadn't yet!) nor even that it was in the verge of being discovered, but to let them know that "The Plan was well and truly off the rails" and they may be called to make that ultimate sacrifice. One that had been planned for a decade. And because he was going to withhold any new weapons for Galton's defence that could make a difference.

In short, he was telling Galton that its usefulness had expired, now that the SL had surrendered to the GA and that Houdini was completed.

And the MA also gave tactical and strategic directions to certain high ranking people making decisions that would affect Galton. They had time to restrict the use of certain technology etc., etc.

They did, but you're getting the timeline wrong. All those decisions were made years ago. The fact that no spider drive ever existed in the Galton system and no one there (except for the "Detweiler-level" inner onion) even knew existed is an indication this was the direction they were going a couple of decades ago.

If the SLN gets a wind of exactly how to get to Darius, they may want to make their trip as quickly as they can, utilizing WHs if possible. They may have also intercepted classified information about how to transit the WH too.

That would be incredibly stupid of the SL to do.

There's no way you can get a fleet to transit to Darius without Darius knowing about it a couple of hours in advance. It doesn't matter what information and codes were captured beforehand. As soon as a fleet drops out of hyper around the Felix Junction's hyperlimit, the ready courier or some RF destroyer transits to Darius and calls "Case Zulu". Game over.

Could the SLN manage to shoot down every ship defending Felix? It's possible: the hyperlimit is just a light-second in diameter, so if the SLN task force arrives all around it, it can shoot using grasers at every ship. They'd need to arrive with angles at every ship that has their wedges up, so this is counting on luck. Then there are spider ships that may not have been seen. But it might actually work, because in order to transit, any ship has to raise their Warshawski sails and will be incredibly visible to anyone in the Junction for several seconds. Time enough to shoot it.

Then what? A piecemeal transit to Darius is stupid. It just gets every ship killed as soon as it arrives. A mass transit would get some 25 ships of the wall through, but no one on the Darius side is going to mistake 25 capital ships for an authorised transit. The transiting ships may take out a chunk of the Darius defences in the process, but they die. It's a suicide mission that only tells Darius to stay on the alert, bring more missile pods around, and disable any IFF codes because the other side has been compromised. And it does not tell the SL where Darius is.

So all this accomplished is kill a lot of SLN and RFN spacers, and give Darius a warning that the Felix side is compromised. It cuts the information pipeline, but that goes both ways: now the SL+GA can't use that intel pipeline to track operatives and operations either.

The Ghosthunters are looking for the lair, don't think they aren't looking for the complete address with driving directions as well. I imagine their version of “Google maps” can suggest a longer scenic route in lieu of the time saving route that takes them thru major tunnels, bridges, overpasses, dirt roads, private prooerty, suburbs, wormholes and ratholes or whatever route will get them there faster. They won't be concerned with saving fuel, they'll be concerned with saving lives. By getting there before the criminals can “beat feet” and pull another Houdini. Or worse, have time to prepare a warm warm… warm warm… very warm welcome. Hot as Hell! See the Attacking Darius thread for the correct temperature.

If there's anyone in the SL we've been told are not stupid, it's the Ghosthunters. They'd never recommend such a mission. They would not tell Kingsford or the SLN leadership if they thought that's how the SLN would react. And they definitely would tell Zilwicki, Cachat and the GA intelligence people.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Could the SLN manage to shoot down every ship defending Felix? It's possible: the hyperlimit is just a light-second in diameter, so if the SLN task force arrives all around it, it can shoot using grasers at every ship. They'd need to arrive with angles at every ship that has their wedges up, so this is counting on luck. Then there are spider ships that may not have been seen. But it might actually work, because in order to transit, any ship has to raise their Warshawski sails and will be incredibly visible to anyone in the Junction for several seconds. Time enough to shoot it.

Then what? A piecemeal transit to Darius is stupid. It just gets every ship killed as soon as it arrives. A mass transit would get some 25 ships of the wall through, but no one on the Darius side is going to mistake 25 capital ships for an authorised transit. The transiting ships may take out a chunk of the Darius defences in the process, but they die. It's a suicide mission that only tells Darius to stay on the alert, bring more missile pods around, and disable any IFF codes because the other side has been compromised. And it does not tell the SL where Darius is.

So all this accomplished is kill a lot of SLN and RFN spacers, and give Darius a warning that the Felix side is compromised. It cuts the information pipeline, but that goes both ways: now the SL+GA can't use that intel pipeline to track operatives and operations either.

If the SL+GA finds out about Felix and decides it's too dangerous to allow to keep operating, the one thing they wouldn't do is attempt to transit. Instead, they'll gather as much intelligence as possible before pulling the plug. Once they do, they may attempt the trick above: arrive all around the Junction and shoot at any ships that raise Warshawski sails.

But then they would not transit. They'd blockade the Felix end and attempt to capture any ships that transited from Darius. If they are good or lucky (or both), they may be able to cripple a ship sufficiently as it is exiting the Darius lane that it can't purge its navigation computer. Then they may interrogate it and its personnel, finding out if they can tell where Darius is located.

This ruse can't go on forever. After a few hours, the Darius side will know no one is transiting back with a status update, so they'll stop sending ships too.

If the intelligence services have also captured transit codes, they may attempt a transit, of the one ship they have the codes for (see above for this scenario). One ship, probably a freighter or courier. Not a fleet.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:At that point, if they do send a ship to scout the Felix system and find Mannerheim there, Mannerheim is in trouble to explain why they are protecting the wormhole that the Alignment is exploiting.

Well, if Mannerheim has their SDF ships deployed so it's clear they know the junction is there. Otherwise they could attempt to plead ignorance -- that they had some other reason to be interested in this nearby (10 LY) system and weren't even aware it had a wormhole.

And even if it's clear they know the junction is there they could claim it was only recently discovered and they were trying to nail down incontrovertible proof of complete ownership before anything else and hadn't even started surveying it. So obviously they had no idea that bad guys might have use it. They're shocked, shocked they say, to be told this.

(The GA might be suspicious. Hell, they might be very suspicious; but they'd have no proof that Mannerheim was in cahoots with the MAlign - not unless they'd found details of MAlign use of the wormhole via Mannerheim assets)