SPOILER end of the MA

n7axw wrote:My comment had more to do with R&D. I did not intend to imply that R&D would never equalize. I merely intended to state the if Gram is continued at Bolthole in a pressurized way, the GA can slow the rate of closure and remain ahead of its competitors for a long time. An established and experienced R&D organization has a running start over one just getting its feet on the ground.

Don

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On the other hand people who are facing the wrong end of a technological imbalance are also going to be quite motivated. And it would be easier to figure out how to do something once you know it can be done and that weapon system gets dispersed far and wide, that would allow different organization to get their hands on tidbits that help their progress.

Theemile wrote:Good point, also remember, the GA grabbed EVERYTHING at the #1 supreme R&D tech center. The files, the databanks, the experiments, the protypes - EVERYTHING.

So everything the SLN and it's major suppliers has planned to do, has done, or is working on in the current pipeline is already in the GA's hands.

within 6 months, we should see modified Mk41s and Mk 16s with those upgraded Javelin drives, not to mention counters to everything the SL has in the pipeline.

So the SLN cannot just follow it's current tech course, the GA will be following that same course for the next couple of years. The will need to find new R&D sources, and that will take time...

Doesn't matter what the GA grabbed unless the idiots in the SLN did not back up their research, designs etc... in another base outside the Sol system.

Just because the GA has it doesn't mean that the SLN cannot use it as a starting point for their technological revival.

Not really. They can throw up distributed yards to build lighter units much easier than for larger units. The returned workers would be invaluable to manning those yards. The set up costs are much lower and all those star systems with their infrastructure destroyed have trained workers but no facilities. Getting those light hulls built is likely. Getting the component parts built will be harder, but not impossible. Giving the designs to Haven is also possible. Upgrading Haven's systems is very likely.

Bottom line is that the SEM will have limited capacity to build light units in the near future. Better to wait for that capacity than to accept units with poorer performance and higher personnel requirements.

ywing14 wrote:Sigs, appreciate you breakdown of ship numbers.


However, the rest of your arguments are easy to refute because there is in fact no evidence to support their conclusions. You can't operate your military or Star Empire on maybe's and what ifs. What if (to borrow for Star Wars) the MA creates a ship that can cause Stars to go supernova? Then they don't need any SDs nor would it matter if GA built more SDs. The MA can just blow up the suns and destroy the SEM. The GA has to operate based on the intelligence it has, not intelligence it doesn't have or the imagination of readers like you and me. There is plenty of evidence to indicate the MA doesn't have a large navy. There is none to indicate it is large.

If I called in a bomb threat to a building, but plenty of evidence indicated that it was a hoax would you assume I was not serious and not investigate/prepare?

The GA has to work on the assumption that the MA has a large enough fleet to threaten them, it is a lot easier on the GA to be wrong about that then for them to assume the MA does not have a large fleet and be wrong.


The MAY may or may not have a large fleet at the end of the UH, but how long will that last? Do you assume that the MA won't have a large fleet for 1 year, or 10, or 100, or 1,000? At what point does someone say well the MA has had enough time we should probably start building up out fleet? What if the GA assumes that the MA is weak and cannot face them on equal terms and the MA goes to their version of Bolthole(Darius) and builds a large fleet? It happened once before in the books who says it can't happen again?

If this were real life and anyone made assumptions based on minuscule evidence that they might not even fully understand they would deserve everything they get.


The MA obviously has an R&D department and it seems to be pretty good as both Grayson and Manticore's industrial infrastructure can attest.

Numerous times in the books the characters state that they don't know if they are intact playing into the hands and plans of the MA.

A large number of SD(P)s is still not needed. The SEM should maintain them in fleets, not in penny packets spread throughout multiple systems. Picket your systems with smaller/cheaper vessels that still have a qualitative and quantative edge.

I am not advocating deploying SD(P)'s to every system, I am advocating keeping SD(P)s in large enough numbers to be able to reinforce threatened systems or portions of the empire without having to gut the defences of some other place within the empire.

They have been getting hard intelligence on the MA now. The first 600 years the MA was just collecting information and putting people into positions of advantage. That was easy especially with the corruption of the league. But now that people know there is a reason to look for them they have been getting intelligence. Just look at what's been happening since they found out about the organization. it was easy for the MA to stay hidden while it was building up to its plan. But now that they are aware of what's going on the GA has a lot more hard intelligence and is looking a lot harder. I'll be interested to see when they find out about Nesbit's brother. Tree Cats are going to make things much more difficult for the MA.

The GA still does not know how the MA expects to complete their plan or even what their end goal is.

The SEM will need smaller vessels to provide convoy escorts.

And it would be a mistake to focus on responsibility number 3 or number 4 of the RMN while virtually ignoring number 1 priority which is the defence of the SEM and it's people. The SEM cannot and should not become the policeman of the galaxy. Besides the SLN still has quite a few very capable BCs to use for counter piracy as long as the pirates don't have Manticoran ships that is.

PeterZ wrote:Not really. They can throw up distributed yards to build lighter units much easier than for larger units.

They already have the yards for the SD(P)'s and the SD(P)s to go along with them.

The returned workers would be invaluable to manning those yards. The set up costs are much lower and all those star systems with their infrastructure destroyed have trained workers but no facilities. Getting those light hulls built is likely. Getting the component parts built will be harder, but not impossible. Giving the designs to Haven is also possible. Upgrading Haven's systems is very likely.

which will all take time, time that the GA may or may not have.

Bottom line is that the SEM will have limited capacity to build light units in the near future. Better to wait for that capacity than to accept units with poorer performance and higher personnel requirements.

But the SD(P)'s happen to be in Havenite yards which means that they can be completed quickly. Anything over 40% complete gets finished anything else gets put on the sidelines. Beowulf gets it's new ships, Manticore gets some new ships and the GA can form a combined fleet manned by a combined crew...

They have a few years. This assumes they can devise a detection system. Without a detection system, the MAlign can roll up the GA fleet as soon as they build enough Lenny's and the GA can't do squat no matter how many SDPs they have deployed. With a detection system, their current SDPs can swamp the defenses of at least an equal number of enemy SDPs.

The semi-complete SDPs are Havenite, not SEM. Those ships will have Apollo but will be Havenite construction in all other systems. They will be personnel hogs. Use more people to man the beasts and the assign them to cruisers' tasks? Very inefficient use of personnel.

Better retool and build RMN spec light units with the attendant automation to better use the limited personnel and expanded responsibilities.

Sigs wrote:

ywing14 wrote:Sigs, appreciate you breakdown of ship numbers.


However, the rest of your arguments are easy to refute because there is in fact no evidence to support their conclusions. You can't operate your military or Star Empire on maybe's and what ifs. What if (to borrow for Star Wars) the MA creates a ship that can cause Stars to go supernova? Then they don't need any SDs nor would it matter if GA built more SDs. The MA can just blow up the suns and destroy the SEM. The GA has to operate based on the intelligence it has, not intelligence it doesn't have or the imagination of readers like you and me. There is plenty of evidence to indicate the MA doesn't have a large navy. There is none to indicate it is large.

If I called in a bomb threat to a building, but plenty of evidence indicated that it was a hoax would you assume I was not serious and not investigate/prepare?

The GA has to work on the assumption that the MA has a large enough fleet to threaten them, it is a lot easier on the GA to be wrong about that then for them to assume the MA does not have a large fleet and be wrong.


The MAY may or may not have a large fleet at the end of the UH, but how long will that last? Do you assume that the MA won't have a large fleet for 1 year, or 10, or 100, or 1,000? At what point does someone say well the MA has had enough time we should probably start building up out fleet? What if the GA assumes that the MA is weak and cannot face them on equal terms and the MA goes to their version of Bolthole(Darius) and builds a large fleet? It happened once before in the books who says it can't happen again?

If this were real life and anyone made assumptions based on minuscule evidence that they might not even fully understand they would deserve everything they get.


The MA obviously has an R&D department and it seems to be pretty good as both Grayson and Manticore's industrial infrastructure can attest.

Numerous times in the books the characters state that they don't know if they are intact playing into the hands and plans of the MA.

A large number of SD(P)s is still not needed. The SEM should maintain them in fleets, not in penny packets spread throughout multiple systems. Picket your systems with smaller/cheaper vessels that still have a qualitative and quantative edge.

I am not advocating deploying SD(P)'s to every system, I am advocating keeping SD(P)s in large enough numbers to be able to reinforce threatened systems or portions of the empire without having to gut the defences of some other place within the empire.

They have been getting hard intelligence on the MA now. The first 600 years the MA was just collecting information and putting people into positions of advantage. That was easy especially with the corruption of the league. But now that people know there is a reason to look for them they have been getting intelligence. Just look at what's been happening since they found out about the organization. it was easy for the MA to stay hidden while it was building up to its plan. But now that they are aware of what's going on the GA has a lot more hard intelligence and is looking a lot harder. I'll be interested to see when they find out about Nesbit's brother. Tree Cats are going to make things much more difficult for the MA.

The GA still does not know how the MA expects to complete their plan or even what their end goal is.

The SEM will need smaller vessels to provide convoy escorts.

And it would be a mistake to focus on responsibility number 3 or number 4 of the RMN while virtually ignoring number 1 priority which is the defence of the SEM and it's people. The SEM cannot and should not become the policeman of the galaxy. Besides the SLN still has quite a few very capable BCs to use for counter piracy as long as the pirates don't have Manticoran ships that is.

And yet again you're still 100% wrong. If you called in a bomb threat and I responded by posting 1000 Guards around the building would that prevent you from carrying out a bombing of the building? Not necessarily. The GA has been investigating the MA attacks and they all point to the fact that the MA clearly has a small fleet. All of the characters including Henke and Honor make this point in the books. The MA as to this point excelled at asymmetrical warfare yet you continue to want to respond by building conventional warships. I don't understand why you think SD(P)s are going to make a difference? They certainly won't at this point since the GA can't even find/detect the spider drive vessels.

And it would be fairly easy to divide up fleets at the moment. You keep a large fleet in Spindle and a large fleet in Manticore. That's pretty much it. It's unlikely the quadrant could even handle a significant number. There you go. You don't need hundreds more.

You're right they don't know, but in the last 3-4 years they found out a lot more than the previous 600. Most of the MA doesn't even know what the plan is. The citizens of Darius surely don't.

How is protecting their commerce a number 3 or 4 priority? It's commerce is the entire reason it was able to stand up to the Peeps and the SLN. Now after a large portion of it's space manufacturing has been destroyed, it has pissed off hundreds of worlds with its seizure of worm junctions, set of a chain of events that will likely turn the protectorates into a giant Silesia, and ran the SEM into 20-30 years of debt; you think it's a good time to ignore protecting its merchant fleet? The GA has told the SLN it has to stand down its fleet. I don't see how they'll suddenly now be able to police commerce. Furthermore do you think any of the protectorates or even shell systems want to see SLN ships doing anti piracy patrols???? The GA published all of the SLN's secret plans were they used their own vessels as pirate vessels as a pretext to invade sovereign star nations. I'm not advocating the GA become the SLN. I'm advocating they act similar to the way they acted in the confederacy for years prior to the outbreak of war with Have. They ensure Cargo Ships get from Point A to Point B in one piece. By making money they can afford to build all those big beautiful SD(P)s you want.

What happens if the invincible fixed defences are defeated? If you don't have the firepower to protect your territory and reinforce a systems defence you don't have a nation, you have 60 systems sharing a flag. With 140 SD(P)'s spread out into nodal forces they can be defeated in detail, or they could be send to reinforce a threatened portion of the empire and lose a large portion of their SD(P)s for months on end in Transit. If you have 140 SD(P)s and split them into three, should you be forced to reinforce one area by stripping another you could tie down 2/3 of your fleet for months in the communication/travel loop alone, by the time they become available you are done.

I already answered that point - if the attackers are powerful enough to break through third-tier fixed defenses, they are powerful enough to smash a squadron or two of SD(P)s.

The reason the RMN should be concentrated at Manticore is due to the wormhole - from there, they can quickly reinforce Beowulf, Talbott, Haven, etc.. The SEM doesn't need more than... three? major concentrations. Manticore, Talbott and Silesia. Perhaps retain Eighth Fleet as a "ready reaction force", but in peacetime it'd be effectively part of Home Fleet.

Don't forget, the RMN has lots of BC(P)s. Those are what they should split up into penny packets.

Sigs wrote:

Theemile wrote:Good point, also remember, the GA grabbed EVERYTHING at the #1 supreme R&D tech center. The files, the databanks, the experiments, the protypes - EVERYTHING.

So everything the SLN and it's major suppliers has planned to do, has done, or is working on in the current pipeline is already in the GA's hands.

within 6 months, we should see modified Mk41s and Mk 16s with those upgraded Javelin drives, not to mention counters to everything the SL has in the pipeline.

So the SLN cannot just follow it's current tech course, the GA will be following that same course for the next couple of years. The will need to find new R&D sources, and that will take time...

Doesn't matter what the GA grabbed unless the idiots in the SLN did not back up their research, designs etc... in another base outside the Sol system.

Just because the GA has it doesn't mean that the SLN cannot use it as a starting point for their technological revival.

Of course the SL and it's suppliers have backups - that's not my point.

The GA knows that Javelin -j almost in production will have this updated seaker and it's drive will be tweaked and extra 100Gs, and the planned -k model will feature this planned warhead upgrade and another 100gs if the plan works.

So the GA will know the SL's near term upgrade paths, and can forecast their upcoming paths (and be able to build counters & integrate the interesting tidbits into their own hardware.)

The SL will need to find other R&D paths to get a leg up on the GA or else everything they do for the next few years will be anticipated.

Theemile wrote:Of course the SL and it's suppliers have backups - that's not my point.

The GA knows that Javelin -j almost in production will have this updated seaker and it's drive will be tweaked and extra 100Gs, and the planned -k model will feature this planned warhead upgrade and another 100gs if the plan works.

So the GA will know the SL's near term upgrade paths, and can forecast their upcoming paths (and be able to build counters & integrate the interesting tidbits into their own hardware.)

The SL will need to find other R&D paths to get a leg up on the GA or else everything they do for the next few years will be anticipated.

Something being anticipated doesn't mean it'll be countered. The SLN can follow the RMN's exact path and doctrines and still be vastly ahead of where it was. Indeed getting to pre-Appolo Manticore/pre-GA Heaven stage is probably the one thing can do with their current tech base, no extra research needed (beyond the most basic how do I build a SD(P) stuff). Sure that's not enough to go for one on one with the Manty navy - but enough non FTL-controlled birds can have the same effect as smaller numbers of FTL controlled missiles. Any SD(P) is going to be orders of magnitude more effective than the old Scientists because the later could deploy exactly ten pods per ship and had poor fire control and point defense to boot.