League Survival

Weird Harold wrote:

Sigs wrote:What happens if a month after Beowulf declares their desire to withdraw from the League another member makes the same decision and they also have a few dozen SD's, do you think the mandarins will let them go or go and smack them down?

What makes you think the League is going to be facing secessionists one system at a time?

Something like 25% of the assembly stood with Beowulf, and it would not be unreasonable to expect a large portion of that 25% or so to secede within a short period of time. The eleven systems of the RF will probably secede all together, and might well encourage the designated first expansion nations to secede with them; or the league might face another block of secessions later.

Actually, that is not entirely accurate. About 25% of the Delegates voted in support of Beowulf. However, many of the systems, particular in the Shell only have one or, at most, two or three whereas the Core Systems have up to nine each. And as these are the ones who would(mostly) support the Mandarins whereas the Shell Systems are more likely to support Beowulf it rather begs this question.

Just how many SYSTEMS actually voted in favour of Beowulf? It could very well be as many as half, if not more.

Rincewind wrote:Actually, that is not entirely accurate. About 25% of the Delegates voted in support of Beowulf. However, many of the systems, particular in the Shell only have one or, at most, two or three whereas the Core Systems have up to nine each. And as these are the ones who would(mostly) support the Mandarins whereas the Shell Systems are more likely to support Beowulf it rather begs this question.

Just how many SYSTEMS actually voted in favour of Beowulf? It could very well be as many as half, if not more.

On the other hand, it could be less. Beowulf was a core world, and presumably at least some of its friends and allies are as well. Beyond that, the core League members are generally rich, long-established worlds that don't have much to do with goings-on in the Verge and could easily have a delegate or two willing to make a stand on principle.

Rincewind wrote:

Weird Harold wrote:...Something like 25% of the assembly stood with Beowulf, and it would not be unreasonable to expect a large portion of that 25% or so to secede within a short period of time. ...

Actually, that is not entirely accurate. About 25% of the Delegates voted in support of Beowulf. However, many of the systems, particular in the Shell only have one or, at most, two or three whereas the Core Systems have up to nine each...

Just how many SYSTEMS actually voted in favour of Beowulf? It could very well be as many as half, if not more.

I seem to recall that vote as being one-vote-per-system. I'd have to re-read carefully to figure that out.

It could go either way; core systems with lots of delegates, or shell systems with few delegates. I suspect that whether "delegates" or "systems" it averaged out to be 20-25% of either with a few large delegations and a lot of small delegations totaling about 20-25% of delegations as well as delegates.

Weird Harold wrote:

Rincewind wrote:Actually, that is not entirely accurate. About 25% of the Delegates voted in support of Beowulf. However, many of the systems, particular in the Shell only have one or, at most, two or three whereas the Core Systems have up to nine each...

Just how many SYSTEMS actually voted in favour of Beowulf? It could very well be as many as half, if not more.

I seem to recall that vote as being one-vote-per-system. I'd have to re-read carefully to figure that out.

It could go either way; core systems with lots of delegates, or shell systems with few delegates. I suspect that whether "delegates" or "systems" it averaged out to be 20-25% of either with a few large delegations and a lot of small delegations totaling about 20-25% of delegations as well as delegates.

If the SL disintegrates like is should if it was real life, it should go in the manner of a dam busting.

First beowulf succeeds, a couple of months later 3-4 of her daughter colonies succeeds, a couple of months after that we get a dozen worlds that say by by, 6 months after beowulf, there is 50 or so, at 8 months a couple hundred, the SL at 2/3 strength at 10 months, and non existent at a year.

darrell wrote:[
First beowulf succeeds, a couple of months later 3-4 of her daughter colonies succeeds, a couple of months after that we get a dozen worlds that say by by, 6 months after beowulf, there is 50 or so, at 8 months a couple hundred, the SL at 2/3 strength at 10 months, and non existent at a year.

No, because there are a lot of common issues among the core systems the the SL takes care of, so if they left it they would immediately have to replace it. It's likely that they will evict the current government and rebuild it before abandoning something that they have invested 1000 years into so they can replace it with Mark 2

kzt wrote:

darrell wrote:First beowulf succeeds, a couple of months later 3-4 of her daughter colonies succeeds, a couple of months after that we get a dozen worlds that say by by, 6 months after beowulf, there is 50 or so, at 8 months a couple hundred, the SL at 2/3 strength at 10 months, and non existent at a year.

No, because there are a lot of common issues among the core systems the the SL takes care of, so if they left it they would immediately have to replace it. It's likely that they will evict the current government and rebuild it before abandoning something that they have invested 1000 years into so they can replace it with Mark 2

You would think the Mandarins would be worried about losing their positions, but thus far that hasn't been an immediate concern.

Weird Harold wrote:

Rincewind wrote:Actually, that is not entirely accurate. About 25% of the Delegates voted in support of Beowulf. However, many of the systems, particular in the Shell only have one or, at most, two or three whereas the Core Systems have up to nine each...

Just how many SYSTEMS actually voted in favour of Beowulf? It could very well be as many as half, if not more.

I seem to recall that vote as being one-vote-per-system. I'd have to re-read carefully to figure that out.

It could go either way; core systems with lots of delegates, or shell systems with few delegates. I suspect that whether "delegates" or "systems" it averaged out to be 20-25% of either with a few large delegations and a lot of small delegations totaling about 20-25% of delegations as well as delegates.

Aye, I figured a few years ago that about 500 systems have only one delegate, about 500 have two or three and ~700 average ~13 each, with a maximum of ~45 for the League's most populous system. The only caveat is, we don't know if the entire Assembly voted in that vote, with no abstaining.

I also reject the notion that most delegations would be unified. Many might be, yes, but I imagine it'd work out more like the European Parliament, with large delegations being divided amongst multiple political parties. Take the old Star Kingdom as an example - if it had ten delegates to the League, two would be Centrists, two Crown Loyalists, two Liberals, two Progressives, one Conservative and one New Men.

Every one of them would vote in lock-step upon wormhole-related and commerce policies, but might divide wildly upon other issues.

Late to the thread, but liking the idea. Forgive any name mispellings, I am away from my set of books, btw.

So, I'm the last "mandarin" standing, eh? I must be the one that isn't within the reach of an MAlign assassins or have the nanotech inside me already. Ergo I'm not a "genetic slave sex addict" or supporter. That gets me off the Audobon's list, Torch's list, and likely HAH/Beowulf's list.

I'm also the product of a hopelessly corrupt system but silly me, forgot to tell them that I haven't ever drank the koolaid. Slipped my mind, I guess, Daniel in Babylon, Pritchart in the People's Republic of Haven, et al. I'm also damn good at my job and know where all the bodies are buried, you know the ones that make me kinda scary to the wannabee Mandarins out there? Did I mention having scary Marine friends who also never drank the koolaid?

So, first things first. Clean house at the SLN's ONI that are the current owners of the "not invented here first and we spend money but don't update ships" family swill pond. If I survive that purge (not likely, mind you...) I now have two things: a greatly reduced but much more effective SLN officer corp and a LOT of ships.

Next? I set a mousetrap for 10th fleet. Which, I acknowledge, is like trying to trap a tiger with a bunch of yarn shooting lilliputians accompanied by blow-gun operating forest dwellers.
I don't actually want to kill all the GA spacers, this is "capture the flag" (ship) similar to the inverse of Filerata's Folly. If this doesn't get me killed (not likely, mind you) and I actually <b>capture</b> Henke and company [probably a very bad idea], I just bought a whole lot of shell game time. Likely pissing off Elizabeth and Honor quite a bit but hey, I'm a corrupt venal mandarin, remember? It's my party and I'll do what I want to. Besides, Michelle, et. al might want a tour of the rest of the inhabited universe, right?

Time to make friendly with Maya without actually straying into Barregos grasp. In the unlikely event that I survive that...
May need a BoltHole and a whole bunch of curious folks guided by al-Fanudhi.

Hmm. Reads like bits of books up to and including" At All Costs", doesn't it? Except that I'm not foolish enough to actually attack the GA's home systems.

So what I am saying? that RFC plots really well, because the same plotline would work -- given time -- in the SLN.

darrell wrote:


If the SL disintegrates like is should if it was real life, it should go in the manner of a dam busting.

First beowulf succeeds, a couple of months later 3-4 of her daughter colonies succeeds, a couple of months after that we get a dozen worlds that say by by, 6 months after beowulf, there is 50 or so, at 8 months a couple hundred, the SL at 2/3 strength at 10 months, and non existent at a year.

Unless of course the SLN steps in and smacks down the system that decides to secede after Beowulf. Beowulf has the GA as protection and it still might get hurt, imagine what message that would send to the rest of the League even if the SLN gets trashed? Unless the GA steps in and starts offering protection to seceding systems or groups of systems the collapse will be slow.

Sigs wrote:

darrell wrote:


If the SL disintegrates like is should if it was real life, it should go in the manner of a dam busting.

First beowulf succeeds, a couple of months later 3-4 of her daughter colonies succeeds, a couple of months after that we get a dozen worlds that say by by, 6 months after beowulf, there is 50 or so, at 8 months a couple hundred, the SL at 2/3 strength at 10 months, and non existent at a year.

Unless of course the SLN steps in and smacks down the system that decides to secede after Beowulf. Beowulf has the GA as protection and it still might get hurt, imagine what message that would send to the rest of the League even if the SLN gets trashed? Unless the GA steps in and starts offering protection to seceding systems or groups of systems the collapse will be slow.

Except that roughly half of Battle Fleet is either destroyed or way out of position to cover most of the League, having been sent orders to concentrate for a second wave against Manticore itself.
Mix in the losses that will be taken in the attempt to stop Beowulf's secession, and you're looking at probably less than half of Battle Fleet in their various positions spread across the League. And Beowulf and the wormhole being days away from Sol, or, in other words, Manticoran ships can hit Sol and return to their bases long before anybody can take advantage of their absence, or other places important to the League/League Navy - which means that the SLN cannot afford to send any significant force away from defending its core systems.

Toss in the fact after Beowulf secedes, and the League's attempt to forcibly intervene becomes known ... I suspect that the next member system(s) to secede will be amongst the ones with actual SDFs.
And remember, the MAlign's been setting up the Protectorates and various OFS sector governors to be making trouble for the League as well. Beowulf's secession could well be a triggering event for some of those.