Solarian Military Catchup Attempts

[/quote]I suspect that if the SL central government (such as it is, and what there is of it) were to fail or dissolve, the League would break up of its own accord into regions that already have trade inter-dependencies;
Think the current EU returning to its previous status as the Common Market.
But unless those resultant regional interdependencies can form actual regional governments, they will be ripe for RF influence.

-- Stewart[/quote]

Actually I think you might be a little wrong about the ripeness for RF plucking. A big part of the Alignment plan was that by taking out the Republic of Haven and later Oyster Bay against Manticore, was to ensure that there would be no other large, sufficiently wealthy, and influential system to effectively oppose the Factor when it started coming up.

With the formation of the Grand Alliance, the shear military imbalance the League faces, the rushed and reduced scale of Oyster Bay, the very early outing of the Alignments existence, and the little problem of human unpredictability, my theory is that the Factor will be launched with sufficient flair and allure ... then fall flat on its face after a few early successes. The GA is a semi known quantity and with a very well proven economic and military clout. I suspect more breakaway systems are going to side the the GA over the Factor.

The Alignments best chance of survival now is to up and run back into the shadows, and spend time working their way into the GA as effectively as they did with the League, and start again. However they are now committed, and with the Factor failing to form the new core of human civilization that they intend, they will get divided between making their original plans work, and trying to confront the GA to stop them taking their thunder. This is what will eventually allow them to be hunted out and crushed. The biggest question in my mind about this right now is how much damage they inflict on their way out.

I agree. The biggest failing for the alignment has been how slavishly they have been sticking to the "master plan." The master plan was to destabilize the SL, get the RoH and SKM fighting to the point that they practically annihilate each other, tip over the SL so it falls apart, and then swoop in and take over. The issue is that Albrecht Detweiler started panicking when things went off-script and jumped the gun too early. Think about it.

The Malign started doing major operations when Manticore and Haven stopped fighting, and both Haven and Manticore started making moves that threatened the Master Plan. Haven and Manticore worked together to establish the Kingdom of Torch, which stole a limch-pin system unknowingly from the MAlign and revealed that there were other competitors out there for ex-SL systems. Then Manticore found another terminus to their wormhole junction (jury still out if MAlign already knew about it, wouldn't shock me) that placed them too close to Mesa for comfort. The MAlign started aggressive operations to try and put everything back on script, but the aggressiveness helped reveal the existence of MAlign and unfortunately did enough damage to inflict pain on Manticore and Haven without destroying their fighting ability, so the MAlign has a massive target on its back from people who want it destroyed. If only Albrecht had been more patient and waited for the situation to play out more. It is now unknown if the plan will work, because the GA is strong and stable, which makes it a likely nexus for ex-SL systems, and the Maya sector, which is also setting itself up as a nexus of stability.

Valen123456 wrote:

I suspect that if the SL central government (such as it is, and what there is of it) were to fail or dissolve, the League would break up of its own accord into regions that already have trade inter-dependencies;
Think the current EU returning to its previous status as the Common Market.
But unless those resultant regional interdependencies can form actual regional governments, they will be ripe for RF influence.

-- Stewart[/quote]

Actually I think you might be a little wrong about the ripeness for RF plucking. A big part of the Alignment plan was that by taking out the Republic of Haven and later Oyster Bay against Manticore, was to ensure that there would be no other large, sufficiently wealthy, and influential system to effectively oppose the Factor when it started coming up.

With the formation of the Grand Alliance, the shear military imbalance the League faces, the rushed and reduced scale of Oyster Bay, the very early outing of the Alignments existence, and the little problem of human unpredictability, my theory is that the Factor will be launched with sufficient flair and allure ... then fall flat on its face after a few early successes. The GA is a semi known quantity and with a very well proven economic and military clout. I suspect more breakaway systems are going to side the the GA over the Factor.

The Alignments best chance of survival now is to up and run back into the shadows, and spend time working their way into the GA as effectively as they did with the League, and start again. However they are now committed, and with the Factor failing to form the new core of human civilization that they intend, they will get divided between making their original plans work, and trying to confront the GA to stop them taking their thunder. This is what will eventually allow them to be hunted out and crushed. The biggest question in my mind about this right now is how much damage they inflict on their way out.[/quote]

Jonathan_S wrote:

munroburton wrote:Rather than the toothless UN, a better comparison is the federal government of the USA disappearing. North America fragments into about fifty-five states, with incomprehensible effects on global and domestic relations.

The UN might be understating things, especially out in the verge.

But the US Federal Government is vastly overstating things. US States are much less autonomous that member systems of the League. Financially, militarily, legislatively, member systems of the League have way more freedom to do their own thing. And the central government is deliberately much more funding starved, so it doesn't even have the same ability to collect taxes and then offer the money back to members with conditions (like how US Federal highway funding was conditional on adopting a 55 mph speed limit)

Yes, the USG does have more reach into its states than the SL does. But assuming the federal organs were deleted without affecting the state legislatures and city authorities too much, then that's the closest thing here on Earth.

In the sense of 'humanity's most powerful grouping politically and militarily disintegrates, leaving a power vacuum to be exploited by former constituent parts and foreign nations.'

As with all analogies, there are limits. For instance, the US(hell, the entire world) has access to instantaneous communications, which the SL does not. That makes a huge difference in centralisation and coordination, which in turn affects how a government would evolve.

Greentea wrote:I agree. The biggest failing for the alignment has been how slavishly they have been sticking to the "master plan." The master plan was to destabilize the SL, get the RoH and SKM fighting to the point that they practically annihilate each other, tip over the SL so it falls apart, and then swoop in and take over. The issue is that Albrecht Detweiler started panicking when things went off-script and jumped the gun too early. Think about it.

Not quite true. The Master Plan actually was to have Haven become big and bloated and eventually conflict with the Solarian League, causing them both to collapse. That was changed when Manticore refused to roll over.

The Master Plan has never been written in stone. David has emphasized several times in his posts that the Plan has been constantly evolving for centuries. One of the reasons they have been successful up to this point is because they have quite consciously been watching for and reacting to changes in the situation. The Plan has changed as technology developed (both public and their own secret research), as the political situation changed, and as their agents succeeded or failed in particular parts of the galaxy.

Your underlying point that the Alignment may be starting to react reflexively, trying to stick to a particular schedule, and making mistakes in the process, is true. That might selfish reflect a desire by Detweiler to see (and lead) the climax in his own lifetime. Or it might be a symptom of the echo chamber the Alignment leadership has unknowingly built around themselves. But I don't think it is accurate to describe the Alignment as sticking slavishly to the Master Plan, because the Master Plan has always been fluid.

Hear! Hear!
Bravo post, SWM.

dr

SWM wrote:snip
Your underlying point that the Alignment may be starting to react reflexively, trying to stick to a particular schedule, and making mistakes in the process, is true. That might selfish reflect a desire by Detweiler to see (and lead) the climax in his own lifetime. Or it might be a symptom of the echo chamber the Alignment leadership has unknowingly built around themselves. But I don't think it is accurate to describe the Alignment as sticking slavishly to the Master Plan, because the Master Plan has always been fluid.

We actually have an example of the modification of the Master Plan in the books. Oyster Bay was moved up using the Sharks, instead of the LennyDets as a result of First Manticore. It appeared that they could take action much earlier than currently planned - although as dr has pointed out this may well have been hubris on the part of Albrecht Detweiler wanting to be in at the conclusion of the Master Plan, rather than a good idea.

Greentea wrote:I agree. The biggest failing for the alignment has been how slavishly they have been sticking to the "master plan." The master plan was to destabilize the SL, get the RoH and SKM fighting to the point that they practically annihilate each other, tip over the SL so it falls apart, and then swoop in and take over. The issue is that Albrecht Detweiler started panicking when things went off-script and jumped the gun too early. Think about it.

SNIP

I don't think he panicked at all. I think he was so sure of himself--all of the major people in the alignment are, like Bardesano and Anisimovna--that they just don't see anyone else being able to stop them. and consider: the only reason their gambit against Erewhon (Tiburian pirates) didn't work out was that Oversteegen had a new, Saganami-B cruiser. And that no one knew he was coming.

In Talbott, their efforts to stir up local revolt were working out just fine. They had the FAK and Norbrandt, and they were about to deliver a big weapons dump to Westman. It was bad luck that Terekhov nailed their supply ship (Maryanne?), not incompetence.

Monica happened because of their bad luck with the Maryanne. And the worse luck that it was Terekhov, and a Saganami-C. Except for delivering the technicians, Maryanne and her crew knew nothing about Monica, or the battlecruisers there.

At New Tuscany, Anisimovna got the plan for a Manti-Sollie war back on track. Her presence tipped off the Manties that Manpower was involved; that doesn't lead back to the Alignment. And, from the Alignment pov, everything is still okay. Bing and Crandall get their Darwin Awards; Sollie public opinion and Mandarin stupidity get Filareta deployed, and the enormous Solarian League Navy has, so far, lost 500 of the 2100 in-commission SDs.

So far, so good.

The really big shock to the alignment and to Detweiler was finding out that Zilwicki and Cachat had survived and gotten a look at the Man Behind the Curtain. Not a good look, and even then, they did not "panic." But their whole evacuation plan and its execution had to be predicated on the new and changed environment.

First, no one would believe Manticore about the conspiracy. (And, they are right--except for a few, no one does).

Second, the military/commercial alliance of Haven/Manticore/Anderman and their combined Naval strength requires major changes to the plan. But, NO ONE KNOWS ABOUT THE RF. they can continue to hide in plain sight.

Other parts are still good. The Solarian League will go down soon; the Verge systems ought to start going up in flames and screaming for Manti assistance. The black eye the Manties get from that ought to further the RF as an alternative that can be TRUSTED. If they get control over Sollie space as a successor over two centuries, that is still in Albrectht's lifetime.

All up to RFC, but the Detweilers still have as good a chance to win as ever. It will just take longer, while they figure out the new tech.


Rob

I don't think he panicked at all. I think he was so sure of himself--all of the major people in the alignment are, like Bardesano and Anisimovna--that they just don't see anyone else being able to stop them. and consider: the only reason their gambit against Erewhon (Tiburian pirates) didn't work out was that Oversteegen had a new, Saganami-B cruiser. And that no one knew he was coming.

In Talbott, their efforts to stir up local revolt were working out just fine. They had the FAK and Norbrandt, and they were about to deliver a big weapons dump to Westman. It was bad luck that Terekhov nailed their supply ship (Maryanne?), not incompetence.

Monica happened because of their bad luck with the Maryanne. And the worse luck that it was Terekhov, and a Saganami-C. Except for delivering the technicians, Maryanne and her crew knew nothing about Monica, or the battlecruisers there.

At New Tuscany, Anisimovna got the plan for a Manti-Sollie war back on track. Her presence tipped off the Manties that Manpower was involved; that doesn't lead back to the Alignment. And, from the Alignment pov, everything is still okay. Bing and Crandall get their Darwin Awards; Sollie public opinion and Mandarin stupidity get Filareta deployed, and the enormous Solarian League Navy has, so far, lost 500 of the 2100 in-commission SDs.

So far, so good.

The really big shock to the alignment and to Detweiler was finding out that Zilwicki and Cachat had survived and gotten a look at the Man Behind the Curtain. Not a good look, and even then, they did not "panic." But their whole evacuation plan and its execution had to be predicated on the new and changed environment.

First, no one would believe Manticore about the conspiracy. (And, they are right--except for a few, no one does).

Second, the military/commercial alliance of Haven/Manticore/Anderman and their combined Naval strength requires major changes to the plan. But, NO ONE KNOWS ABOUT THE RF. they can continue to hide in plain sight.

Other parts are still good. The Solarian League will go down soon; the Verge systems ought to start going up in flames and screaming for Manti assistance. The black eye the Manties get from that ought to further the RF as an alternative that can be TRUSTED. If they get control over Sollie space as a successor over two centuries, that is still in Albrectht's lifetime.

All up to RFC, but the Detweilers still have as good a chance to win as ever. It will just take longer, while they figure out the new tech.


Rob

You are quite right about Albrecht and the Alignment not panicking and that their master plans have had plenty of built in fall backs and adjustments. Also the massive windfall of McBrydes near defection and failure of many of their Talbott projects was more to bad luck than incompetence. Weber has done a very good job of making the Alignment a scarily competent group that avoid or make subtle fun of most villainous cliches.

The problem the Alignment now faces is that they have been outed too thoroughly and too soon for their own still highly intricate plans. The formation of the Grand Alliance, the massive tech boosts their own engineered wars have given their opponents, and the rushed Oyster Bay have all given their opponents a serious grudge and a viable enough target for them to rally against. Yes the GA does not know about the Factor, but once it forms and starts quickly absorbing other systems, how long is it going to take before the GA figure out the Alignment are the puppet masters behind it, and then devote all their energies toward stopping it?

The surge of troubles in the Verge and the calls for Manty assistance have already been identified by Henke and her people as an Alignment manipulation, and it probably wont be long before they start exposing the real trouble makers (Firebrand is probably in for a rude shock soon). Also I suspect the Alignment might overreach itself by promoting too much trouble to be realistic as the breakdown of the League accelerates. If the GA was not there to blow a powerful and secure whistle on them, then the gambit probably would have caused so much chaos it would have worked. But with the GA as viable and known quantity now controlling so much space with their well proven military power, is the Factor really going to seem all that welcoming?

Can they give a galaxy spanning wormhole junction?, can they prove their military prowess effectively? Put yourself in a planetary leaders position, the League is shattering and you are looking for allies, would you make peace and private agreements with the force that openly smashed the SLN? or would you be comforted when some miraculous safety offering group appear out of nowhere? And if the Alignment/Factor are forced to back up their claims and start using their new stealthy spider ships, will it actually comfort anyone when the secret has already been blabbed as the force that launched an unprovoked attack on another system that was very conveniently causing the Solarian League so much trouble, and then failed to actually stop the Mantie's anyway, as Fileretta found out?

Would you join the Factor in this situation? Then again history proves human stupidity and gullibility is endless and easily exploited, so it might just work anyway.

My own theory is that the end of the next book will see all the Alignments leaders sitting around a table and saying "we have got to do something about this ... Prometheus is not working!". But as you say, its up to RFC.

The Malign is probably wishing they had been researching ways to shut down wormhole junctions. Remove that and the SEM becomes much less of a threat. I wonder what would happen if you overloaded a warshaski(?) sail in a wormhole while transiting it?

Zakharra wrote:The Malign is probably wishing they had been researching ways to shut down wormhole junctions. Remove that and the SEM becomes much less of a threat. I wonder what would happen if you overloaded a warshaski(?) sail in a wormhole while transiting it?

Nothing. you would have some minor debris which the wormhole itself would crush to dust in short order. The wormholes are areas in which enormously strong grav waves impinge on normal space.

Trying to shut down a grav wave with any human built construct won't happen. I suspect the author will tell you it would take the collapse of the star.

Rob