The Problem with Haven

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Re: The Problem with Haven
by Dafmeister » Sat Oct 18, 2014 8:17 am
Dafmeister Commodore Posts: 754 Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 4:58 am	GregD wrote: So what? Unless virtually every single Independent and Liberal (you know, the pacifist party) member of the House of Lords is willing to vote against a good Peace Treaty because they're upset with the Queen, there's no crisis, just a lot of hurt feelings among people Elizabeth is already at war with. Are the voters going to say "well, my taxes are going down, my freedom is going up, life is safer, the war is over, and we won, but I'm really pissed off that the Queen went around the back of the corrupt High Ridge Government and made this happen"? Or are they going to say "I'm so happy the war is over. Yay Queen Elizabeth! Yay Honor Harrington!" The 'corrupt High Ridge Government'? I think you mean the lawful government of Manticore, which is cutting the obsolete fat from the Navy, returning hundreds of thousands of wartime recruits to their families, ensuring the technological superiority of the Royal Manticoran Navy, pouring investment into the civilian economy and negotiating with the obstinate government of the Republic of Haven to ensure that the Manticoran Alliance receives the benefits that its victory and sacrifice deserve, don't you?
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by Dafmeister » Sat Oct 18, 2014 8:17 am

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Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 4:58 am

GregD wrote:
So what?

Unless virtually every single Independent and Liberal (you know, the pacifist party) member of the House of Lords is willing to vote against a good Peace Treaty because they're upset with the Queen, there's no crisis, just a lot of hurt feelings among people Elizabeth is already at war with.

Are the voters going to say "well, my taxes are going down, my freedom is going up, life is safer, the war is over, and we won, but I'm really pissed off that the Queen went around the back of the corrupt High Ridge Government and made this happen"?

Or are they going to say "I'm so happy the war is over. Yay Queen Elizabeth! Yay Honor Harrington!"

The 'corrupt High Ridge Government'? I think you mean the lawful government of Manticore, which is cutting the obsolete fat from the Navy, returning hundreds of thousands of wartime recruits to their families, ensuring the technological superiority of the Royal Manticoran Navy, pouring investment into the civilian economy and negotiating with the obstinate government of the Republic of Haven to ensure that the Manticoran Alliance receives the benefits that its victory and sacrifice deserve, don't you?

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Re: The Problem with Haven
by timmopussycat » Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:00 pm
timmopussycat Lieutenant Commander Posts: 116 Joined: Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:41 am Location: Vancouver, BC	Dark Enigma wrote: Did it bother anyone else how quickly Elizabeth and Pritchart became BFFs? Even with the benefit of Treecat truth detectors, she had to still be a bit miffed over that little sneak attack and attempt to take over her star nation if nothing else! You may be failing to take into account the impact of two points: 1) the fact that Elizabeth knows (thanks to Ariel, Nimitz and Honor) that not only was Pritchart manipulated, (apparently by Mesa but actually by Giancola although they don’t know that) into launching the war and 2) that she herself had been manipulated into cancelling what would have been the peace conference. With both women feeling taken advantage of and regretful of their actions and a common target in Mesa, I found the development of their friendship reasonably likely. Dark Enigma also wrote: (I still think its a stretch that even Shannon Foraker could have gathered the manufacturing infrastructure, technical expertise, and sheer engineering genius to achieve parity with Manticore in just a few years, but I'm willing to file that under suspension of disbelief and move on.) They haven’t reached parity but they have narrowed the gap. Again, Dark Enigma: I can tell you that the last thing I would be doing if I were Elizabeth would be giving Haven Treecats and Apollo! I might be persuaded into a watchful truce while the threat of Mesa was dealt with but that would be the extent of it! Hell, you could even make a strong case that turnabout is fair play and sabotage or a sneak attack on Bolthole was warranted once its location had been discovered. After all, the new Republic is young and fragile. Given that Havenite leaders tend to have short life-expectancies, who's to say that Pritchart will even be able to stay in power for the foreseeable future (much less restrain whatever impulse drove her to attack Manticore in the first place)? I think you are forgetting that Elizabeth has both treecats and Honor to let her really trust where Pritchart and Theisman and the other Havenite cabinet ministers were coming from. Which is why Elizabeth knows she doesn’t have to worry about any future Havenite attack on Manticore. Kzt wrote: And after the next election, when someone else gets elected? I'm sure that both the Sunni tribal leaders who signed on with the US in 2008-2009 and the US military leaders who made the deal were totally sincere. As were the leaders of Manticore who set up the Manticore Alliance and included the allies like Grayson and Erehwon. I'm sure they were totally sincere in their promises of inclusion, R&D support and consultation. But things change. Counting on your personal relationship with an elected official to protect you is not a great long-term plan when your survival is in question. Do you really think anyone in Haven has a hope in hell of: 1) winning an election against the President who not only ended the Manticore war honourably (sorry, I’m Canadian) but turned Manticore into a trade partner? Or, 2) Reversing the alliance if they do win, the benefits of the alliance are too strong, especially when Manticore starts investing in Haven, let alone going against the almost overwhelming favourable vote in the Havenite Senate. No, Elizabeth can be certain that the alliance will hold at least long enough to fight the war against the SL. Dark Enigma wrote: the fact that Elizabeth had Treecat lie detectors. This is true, however a Treecat can only tell you if aparticular person is being truthful at this particular moment. They cannot vouch for that persons future actions especially if that person is only one part of a much larger polity. True enough, but when the treecats confirm a person’s truthfulness on given points, they also get a sense of the emotional state that is behind the stated answer. As Honor says of Simoes in Mission of Honor: “I can't read minds, but I can read emotions, and I know when someone's lying." and "What I can tell you about Simões is that his anger—his outrage—at this 'Alignment' is absolutely genuine. The pain inside that man is incredible." Honor would get a sense of where Pritchart was coming from and that sense would be enough for Elizabeth to risk the treaty. Once the Senate ratified the treaty, Elizabeth would know that the polity of Haven was as equally committed to the Grand Alliance as Pritchart had been when she set it up.
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Re: The Problem with Haven

by timmopussycat » Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:00 pm

timmopussycat
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Dark Enigma wrote:

Did it bother anyone else how quickly Elizabeth and Pritchart became BFFs? Even with the benefit of Treecat truth detectors, she had to still be a bit miffed over that little sneak attack and attempt to take over her star nation if nothing else!

You may be failing to take into account the impact of two points:
1) the fact that Elizabeth knows (thanks to Ariel, Nimitz and Honor) that not only was Pritchart manipulated, (apparently by Mesa but actually by Giancola although they don’t know that) into launching the war and
2) that she herself had been manipulated into cancelling what would have been the peace conference.
With both women feeling taken advantage of and regretful of their actions and a common target in Mesa, I found the development of their friendship reasonably likely.

Dark Enigma also wrote:

(I still think its a stretch that even Shannon Foraker could have gathered the manufacturing infrastructure, technical expertise, and sheer engineering genius to achieve parity with Manticore in just a few years, but I'm willing to file that under suspension of disbelief and move on.)

They haven’t reached parity but they have narrowed the gap.

Again, Dark Enigma:

I can tell you that the last thing I would be doing if I were Elizabeth would be giving Haven Treecats and Apollo! I might be persuaded into a watchful truce while the threat of Mesa was dealt with but that would be the extent of it!

Hell, you could even make a strong case that turnabout is fair play and sabotage or a sneak attack on Bolthole was warranted once its location had been discovered. After all, the new Republic is young and fragile. Given that Havenite leaders tend to have short life-expectancies, who's to say that Pritchart will even be able to stay in power for the foreseeable future (much less restrain whatever impulse drove her to attack Manticore in the first place)?

I think you are forgetting that Elizabeth has both treecats and Honor to let her really trust where Pritchart and Theisman and the other Havenite cabinet ministers were coming from. Which is why Elizabeth knows she doesn’t have to worry about any future Havenite attack on Manticore.

Kzt wrote:

And after the next election, when someone else gets elected? I'm sure that both the Sunni tribal leaders who signed on with the US in 2008-2009 and the US military leaders who made the deal were totally sincere. As were the leaders of Manticore who set up the Manticore Alliance and included the allies like Grayson and Erehwon. I'm sure they were totally sincere in their promises of inclusion, R&D support and consultation. But things change. Counting on your personal relationship with an elected official to protect you is not a great long-term plan when your survival is in question.

Do you really think anyone in Haven has a hope in hell of:
1) winning an election against the President who not only ended the Manticore war honourably (sorry, I’m Canadian) but turned Manticore into a trade partner? Or,
2) Reversing the alliance if they do win, the benefits of the alliance are too strong, especially when Manticore starts investing in Haven, let alone going against the almost overwhelming favourable vote in the Havenite Senate. No, Elizabeth can be certain that the alliance will hold at least long enough to fight the war against the SL.

Dark Enigma wrote:

the fact that Elizabeth had Treecat lie detectors. This is true, however a Treecat can only tell you if aparticular person is being truthful at this particular moment. They cannot vouch for that persons future actions especially if that person is only one part of a much larger polity.

True enough, but when the treecats confirm a person’s truthfulness on given points, they also get a sense of the emotional state that is behind the stated answer. As Honor says of Simoes in Mission of Honor:

“I can't read minds, but I can read emotions, and I know when someone's lying."

and

"What I can tell you about Simões is that his anger—his outrage—at this 'Alignment' is absolutely genuine. The pain inside that man is incredible."

Honor would get a sense of where Pritchart was coming from and that sense would be enough for Elizabeth to risk the treaty. Once the Senate ratified the treaty, Elizabeth would know that the polity of Haven was as equally committed to the Grand Alliance as Pritchart had been when she set it up.

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Re: The Problem with Haven
by Greentea » Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:05 pm
Greentea Commander Posts: 161 Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2014 3:25 pm Location: Pittsburgh, PA	You forget that at the start of War of Honor, it is mentioned that Haven had been dragging out the treaty negotiations for the past two years as much if not more than Manticore in order to buy the time necessary to stabilize the new government. They were not going to negotiate with anyone during that time period. It is only at the start of War of Honor, once all of the internal threats to the Republic of Haven have been neutralized, that it becomes an issue that the High Ridge government has no intention of actually concluding the war at the time. As for Grayson, there are text hints that Grayson is conducting its own negotiations at the time, since the Protector mentions feelers being presented by the Havenite ambassador. Of course Grayson has some cultural baggage that likely did impact the second war. They are used to enemies that get defeated, a de-facto cease-fire exists, then the enemy attacks them again. They mentally could not exit a war stance until there was an actual peace treaty, and for the past two years, neither Haven nor Manticore had any intention of negotiating one. Haven doesn't try to split Grayson from the alliance until they get annoyed at Manticore's continued refusal to negotiate a treaty and begin contemplating resuming the war. Your proposal just doesn't work. GregD wrote: Duckk wrote:Grayson has no more authority to negotiate a peace for the entire Alliance than Manticore. That was the huge sticking point which caused the friction between the Alliance. High Ridge unilaterally halted operations, without consulting any of his allies. Since the RMN was the vast bulk of the fighting forces, he foisted the ceasefire on everyone else. The only thing Grayson is authorized to do is negotiate for itself, which would be a de facto abandonment of the Alliance. We all saw how well the Alliance took Erewhon leaving, so Grayson getting out would pretty much resulted in the dissolution of the entire Alliance. Second, Queen Elizabeth had no clue the war would resume. She deduced, correctly, that the philosophical differences between the coalition party would tear them apart, at which point her Centrists and Crown Loyalists would be there to pick up the pieces. She was simply playing for time until that event happened, and it was working. If not for Giancola and his shenanigans with the diplomatic correspondences, she would have accomplished her goal, at which point Manticore would have started negotiating seriously. For your first point: so what? 1: High Ridge already established that Star Nations can act unilaterally, no one not already his partisan is going to care that Grayson went around his back unilaterally. 2: 2 years into the cease-fire, Steadholder Harrington comes before the House of Lords, announcing that Grayson, Erewhon, and the rest of the worlds of the Alliance have negotiated a peace treaty with the Republic of Haven, said Treaty to go into effect in 6 months, or when Manticore signs, whichever comes first. She then plays a video from Queen Elizabeth saying that she's seen the terms of the treaty, finds it quite fair, and calls on Parliament to end the war with Haven. Then she reads the Treaty. A: You really think Erewhon wouldn't sign on? B: You really think Pritchard wouldn't agree to a fair treaty? C: You really think the House of Lords will reject a Peace Treaty with Haven just because Grayson negotiated it? You've got all the Crown Loyalists and Centrists supporting it. All you need are enough Independents and (people who would have become Cathy M's) New Liberals to get to a majority, and the war is over. If Manticore stays at war because essentially every single Liberal in the Lords voted against a Peace Treaty, the Liberals would be utterly destroyed in the Commons for a generation. a Prolong generation. Not going to happen. It passes, the war's over, all the wartime taxes are repealed, the government is forced to call an election, and after it's over all the San Martino Lords get to join. Game over, High Ridge government. As for your second point, go reread the beginning of War of Honor. Note how pissed Honor, and everyone else on her side, is about how long things are dragging on. Those people should have been willing to do anything they needed to do to cut short the corruption and disaster of the High Ridge government. And Grayson negotiating a separate Peace Treaty does not spark a Manticorian Constitutional fight. The Queen "didn't do anything." This isn't the Queen's Treaty, it's Grayson's. Now, the Queen thinks it's a really good treaty, and hopes Parliament will ratify it quickly, but that's not a Constitutional problem. Now, will anyone on the other side believe that? Of course not. Who cares? Elizabeth wants to strangle every single one of them with her own hands. Pissing them off mightily, when there's nothing they can do about it, and harming, if not completely destroying, all their plans in the bargain? Priceless. Cup of tea? Yes, please.
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Re: The Problem with Haven

by Greentea » Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:05 pm

Greentea
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You forget that at the start of War of Honor, it is mentioned that Haven had been dragging out the treaty negotiations for the past two years as much if not more than Manticore in order to buy the time necessary to stabilize the new government. They were not going to negotiate with anyone during that time period. It is only at the start of War of Honor, once all of the internal threats to the Republic of Haven have been neutralized, that it becomes an issue that the High Ridge government has no intention of actually concluding the war at the time.

As for Grayson, there are text hints that Grayson is conducting its own negotiations at the time, since the Protector mentions feelers being presented by the Havenite ambassador. Of course Grayson has some cultural baggage that likely did impact the second war. They are used to enemies that get defeated, a de-facto cease-fire exists, then the enemy attacks them again. They mentally could not exit a war stance until there was an actual peace treaty, and for the past two years, neither Haven nor Manticore had any intention of negotiating one. Haven doesn't try to split Grayson from the alliance until they get annoyed at Manticore's continued refusal to negotiate a treaty and begin contemplating resuming the war. Your proposal just doesn't work.

GregD wrote:
Duckk wrote:Grayson has no more authority to negotiate a peace for the entire Alliance than Manticore. That was the huge sticking point which caused the friction between the Alliance. High Ridge unilaterally halted operations, without consulting any of his allies. Since the RMN was the vast bulk of the fighting forces, he foisted the ceasefire on everyone else. The only thing Grayson is authorized to do is negotiate for itself, which would be a de facto abandonment of the Alliance. We all saw how well the Alliance took Erewhon leaving, so Grayson getting out would pretty much resulted in the dissolution of the entire Alliance.

Second, Queen Elizabeth had no clue the war would resume. She deduced, correctly, that the philosophical differences between the coalition party would tear them apart, at which point her Centrists and Crown Loyalists would be there to pick up the pieces. She was simply playing for time until that event happened, and it was working. If not for Giancola and his shenanigans with the diplomatic correspondences, she would have accomplished her goal, at which point Manticore would have started negotiating seriously.

For your first point: so what?

1: High Ridge already established that Star Nations can act unilaterally, no one not already his partisan is going to care that Grayson went around his back unilaterally.

2: 2 years into the cease-fire, Steadholder Harrington comes before the House of Lords, announcing that Grayson, Erewhon, and the rest of the worlds of the Alliance have negotiated a peace treaty with the Republic of Haven, said Treaty to go into effect in 6 months, or when Manticore signs, whichever comes first. She then plays a video from Queen Elizabeth saying that she's seen the terms of the treaty, finds it quite fair, and calls on Parliament to end the war with Haven. Then she reads the Treaty.

A: You really think Erewhon wouldn't sign on?
B: You really think Pritchard wouldn't agree to a fair treaty?
C: You really think the House of Lords will reject a Peace Treaty with Haven just because Grayson negotiated it?

You've got all the Crown Loyalists and Centrists supporting it. All you need are enough Independents and (people who would have become Cathy M's) New Liberals to get to a majority, and the war is over.

If Manticore stays at war because essentially every single Liberal in the Lords voted against a Peace Treaty, the Liberals would be utterly destroyed in the Commons for a generation. a Prolong generation.

Not going to happen. It passes, the war's over, all the wartime taxes are repealed, the government is forced to call an election, and after it's over all the San Martino Lords get to join.

Game over, High Ridge government.

As for your second point, go reread the beginning of War of Honor. Note how pissed Honor, and everyone else on her side, is about how long things are dragging on. Those people should have been willing to do anything they needed to do to cut short the corruption and disaster of the High Ridge government.

And Grayson negotiating a separate Peace Treaty does not spark a Manticorian Constitutional fight. The Queen "didn't do anything." This isn't the Queen's Treaty, it's Grayson's. Now, the Queen thinks it's a really good treaty, and hopes Parliament will ratify it quickly, but that's not a Constitutional problem.

Now, will anyone on the other side believe that? Of course not. Who cares? Elizabeth wants to strangle every single one of them with her own hands. Pissing them off mightily, when there's nothing they can do about it, and harming, if not completely destroying, all their plans in the bargain?

Priceless.

Cup of tea? Yes, please.

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Re: The Problem with Haven
by kzt » Sat Oct 18, 2014 3:28 pm
kzt Fleet Admiral Posts: 11360 Joined: Sun Jan 10, 2010 8:18 pm Location: Albuquerque, NM	timmopussycat wrote: Do you really think anyone in Haven has a hope in hell of: 1) winning an election against the President who not only ended the Manticore war honourably (sorry, I’m Canadian) but turned Manticore into a trade partner? Or, 2) Reversing the alliance if they do win, the benefits of the alliance are too strong, especially when Manticore starts investing in Haven, let alone going against the almost overwhelming favourable vote in the Havenite Senate. No, Elizabeth can be certain that the alliance will hold at least long enough to fight the war against the SL. Yeah no nation would summarily dismiss the one guy who could have gotten them through the war, right at the moment of their nations triumph. Impossible. It would be like Great Britian sending Churchill and his government packing right at the end of WW2. Who could possibly conceive of that?
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Re: The Problem with Haven

by kzt » Sat Oct 18, 2014 3:28 pm

kzt
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Posts: 11360
Joined: Sun Jan 10, 2010 8:18 pm
Location: Albuquerque, NM

timmopussycat wrote:
Do you really think anyone in Haven has a hope in hell of:
1) winning an election against the President who not only ended the Manticore war honourably (sorry, I’m Canadian) but turned Manticore into a trade partner? Or,
2) Reversing the alliance if they do win, the benefits of the alliance are too strong, especially when Manticore starts investing in Haven, let alone going against the almost overwhelming favourable vote in the Havenite Senate. No, Elizabeth can be certain that the alliance will hold at least long enough to fight the war against the SL.

Yeah no nation would summarily dismiss the one guy who could have gotten them through the war, right at the moment of their nations triumph. Impossible. It would be like Great Britian sending Churchill and his government packing right at the end of WW2. Who could possibly conceive of that?

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Re: The Problem with Haven
by roseandheather » Sat Oct 18, 2014 3:56 pm
roseandheather Admiral Posts: 2056 Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2013 10:39 pm Location: Republic of Haven	kzt wrote: timmopussycat wrote: Do you really think anyone in Haven has a hope in hell of: 1) winning an election against the President who not only ended the Manticore war honourably (sorry, I’m Canadian) but turned Manticore into a trade partner? Or, 2) Reversing the alliance if they do win, the benefits of the alliance are too strong, especially when Manticore starts investing in Haven, let alone going against the almost overwhelming favourable vote in the Havenite Senate. No, Elizabeth can be certain that the alliance will hold at least long enough to fight the war against the SL. Yeah no nation would summarily dismiss the one guy who could have gotten them through the war, right at the moment of their nations triumph. Impossible. It would be like Great Britian sending Churchill and his government packing right at the end of WW2. Who could possibly conceive of that? Idiots, I suspect. In all seriousness, Timmo is right - Eloise Pritchart's popularity back home has got to be sky-high right now, and there's no way in hell she'll be leaving office any time soon - unless the Presidency has a term limit, which we haven't been told about. If it doesn't, I suspect Haven is going to pull an FDR and keep re-electing her until the SL war is over. (If it does, I suspect they will summarily elect Leslie Montreau and stick Eloise in the Cabinet somewhere, or in some other high-profile political position where she can be a rallying cry for the Navy and Haven as a whole.) Sure, there might be a few idiots in the government who want to reverse the alliance - there always are - but their chances of doing so... well, basically don't exist. (And Goddammit, I still want my Haven-set Theisman Coup/State-Sec mop-up novel, even if it will splinter my heart into a billion bleeding pieces.) ~*~ I serve at the pleasure of President Pritchart. Javier & Eloise "You'll remember me when the west wind moves upon the fields of barley..."
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Re: The Problem with Haven

by roseandheather » Sat Oct 18, 2014 3:56 pm

roseandheather
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kzt wrote:
timmopussycat wrote:
Do you really think anyone in Haven has a hope in hell of:
1) winning an election against the President who not only ended the Manticore war honourably (sorry, I’m Canadian) but turned Manticore into a trade partner? Or,
2) Reversing the alliance if they do win, the benefits of the alliance are too strong, especially when Manticore starts investing in Haven, let alone going against the almost overwhelming favourable vote in the Havenite Senate. No, Elizabeth can be certain that the alliance will hold at least long enough to fight the war against the SL.

Yeah no nation would summarily dismiss the one guy who could have gotten them through the war, right at the moment of their nations triumph. Impossible. It would be like Great Britian sending Churchill and his government packing right at the end of WW2. Who could possibly conceive of that?

Idiots, I suspect.

In all seriousness, Timmo is right - Eloise Pritchart's popularity back home has got to be sky-high right now, and there's no way in hell she'll be leaving office any time soon - unless the Presidency has a term limit, which we haven't been told about. If it doesn't, I suspect Haven is going to pull an FDR and keep re-electing her until the SL war is over. (If it does, I suspect they will summarily elect Leslie Montreau and stick Eloise in the Cabinet somewhere, or in some other high-profile political position where she can be a rallying cry for the Navy and Haven as a whole.)

Sure, there might be a few idiots in the government who want to reverse the alliance - there always are - but their chances of doing so... well, basically don't exist.

(And Goddammit, I still want my Haven-set Theisman Coup/State-Sec mop-up novel, even if it will splinter my heart into a billion bleeding pieces.)

~*~

I serve at the pleasure of President Pritchart.

Javier & Eloise
"You'll remember me when the west wind moves upon the fields of barley..."

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Re: The Problem with Haven
by timmopussycat » Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:10 pm
timmopussycat Lieutenant Commander Posts: 116 Joined: Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:41 am Location: Vancouver, BC	kzt wrote: timmopussycat wrote: Do you really think anyone in Haven has a hope in hell of: 1) winning an election against the President who not only ended the Manticore war honourably (sorry, I’m Canadian) but turned Manticore into a trade partner? Or, 2) Reversing the alliance if they do win, the benefits of the alliance are too strong, especially when Manticore starts investing in Haven, let alone going against the almost overwhelming favourable vote in the Havenite Senate. No, Elizabeth can be certain that the alliance will hold at least long enough to fight the war against the SL. Yeah no nation would summarily dismiss the one guy who could have gotten them through the war, right at the moment of their nations triumph. Impossible. It would be like Great Britian sending Churchill and his government packing right at the end of WW2. Who could possibly conceive of that? False analogy. For the analogy to be correct in our universe, Churchill would have had to: a) not only won the war, but b) somehow set up a situation in which Britain came out of it with all her war debts paid, and c) obtained access to massive new markets which would almost instantly boost the economy, and d) campaigned coherently on a responsible future oriented platform. Churchill did not do b, c, or d. (The equivalent of b in the Honorverse is the immanent massive Manticorian investment in Haven which will both improve Haven's financial position and upgrade its technology. I notice you said nothing about the massive cross-party commitment to the Grand Alliance by the Havenite Senate which was my second point. That is reminiscent of the US Senate and House votes after Pearl Harbour (S 88-0 H 388-1). Pretty solid commitment that Haven would stick to the GA, certainly solid enough for Elizabeth to take to the bank.
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Re: The Problem with Haven

by timmopussycat » Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:10 pm

timmopussycat
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Posts: 116
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Location: Vancouver, BC

kzt wrote:
timmopussycat wrote:
Do you really think anyone in Haven has a hope in hell of:
1) winning an election against the President who not only ended the Manticore war honourably (sorry, I’m Canadian) but turned Manticore into a trade partner? Or,
2) Reversing the alliance if they do win, the benefits of the alliance are too strong, especially when Manticore starts investing in Haven, let alone going against the almost overwhelming favourable vote in the Havenite Senate. No, Elizabeth can be certain that the alliance will hold at least long enough to fight the war against the SL.

Yeah no nation would summarily dismiss the one guy who could have gotten them through the war, right at the moment of their nations triumph. Impossible. It would be like Great Britian sending Churchill and his government packing right at the end of WW2. Who could possibly conceive of that?

False analogy. For the analogy to be correct in our universe, Churchill would have had to:
a) not only won the war, but
b) somehow set up a situation in which Britain came out of it with all her war debts paid, and
c) obtained access to massive new markets which would almost instantly boost the economy, and
d) campaigned coherently on a responsible future oriented platform.

Churchill did not do b, c, or d. (The equivalent of b in the Honorverse is the immanent massive Manticorian investment in Haven which will both improve Haven's financial position and upgrade its technology.

I notice you said nothing about the massive cross-party commitment to the Grand Alliance by the Havenite Senate which was my second point. That is reminiscent of the US Senate and House votes after Pearl Harbour (S 88-0 H 388-1). Pretty solid commitment that Haven would stick to the GA, certainly solid enough for Elizabeth to take to the bank.

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Re: The Problem with Haven
by Jonathan_S » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:48 am
Jonathan_S Fleet Admiral Posts: 8800 Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 2:01 pm Location: Virginia, USA	GregD wrote: For your first point: so what? 1: High Ridge already established that Star Nations can act unilaterally, no one not already his partisan is going to care that Grayson went around his back unilaterally. 2: 2 years into the cease-fire, Steadholder Harrington comes before the House of Lords, announcing that Grayson, Erewhon, and the rest of the worlds of the Alliance have negotiated a peace treaty with the Republic of Haven, said Treaty to go into effect in 6 months, or when Manticore signs, whichever comes first. She then plays a video from Queen Elizabeth saying that she's seen the terms of the treaty, finds it quite fair, and calls on Parliament to end the war with Haven. Then she reads the Treaty. A: You really think Erewhon wouldn't sign on? B: You really think Pritchard wouldn't agree to a fair treaty? C: You really think the House of Lords will reject a Peace Treaty with Haven just because Grayson negotiated it? You've got all the Crown Loyalists and Centrists supporting it. All you need are enough Independents and (people who would have become Cathy M's) New Liberals to get to a majority, and the war is over. If Manticore stays at war because essentially every single Liberal in the Lords voted against a Peace Treaty, the Liberals would be utterly destroyed in the Commons for a generation. a Prolong generation. Not going to happen. It passes, the war's over, all the wartime taxes are repealed, the government is forced to call an election, and after it's over all the San Martino Lords get to join. Game over, High Ridge government. As for your second point, go reread the beginning of War of Honor. Note how pissed Honor, and everyone else on her side, is about how long things are dragging on. Those people should have been willing to do anything they needed to do to cut short the corruption and disaster of the High Ridge government. And Grayson negotiating a separate Peace Treaty does not spark a Manticorian Constitutional fight. The Queen "didn't do anything." This isn't the Queen's Treaty, it's Grayson's. Now, the Queen thinks it's a really good treaty, and hopes Parliament will ratify it quickly, but that's not a Constitutional problem. Now, will anyone on the other side believe that? Of course not. Who cares? Elizabeth wants to strangle every single one of them with her own hands. Pissing them off mightily, when there's nothing they can do about it, and harming, if not completely destroying, all their plans in the bargain? Priceless. While I'm sure Haven would have been happy to have an independent peaces with Grayson (who was unquestionably a net asset to Manticore should war resume), and even though the rest of the minor members were probably a net liability to Manticore I'm sure they would have settled with them as well. But Grayson can't really negotiate on the single point Haven cares about; disposition of the occupies systems - because Grayson doesn't occupy them. Grayson and the rest of the alliance can't promise anything about what happens to them, because none of them can order the RMN Army and Navy forces in those systems to allow plebiacites, or allow Havenite observers. So even though they all might think mutually, or multilaterally, overseen plebiacites are fair for everything except Trevor's Star they can't really negotiate for that point. Also, they have a responsibility to think about what happens if this goes wrong. If Manticore doesn't sign a matching peace treaty then there are 2 huge problems. 1) They effectively unilaterally removed themselves from the mutual defense treaty with Manticore - so if Haven did become agressive again they're defenseless (except for Grayson, which can't protect all of them) 2) Grayson pulling out is effectively an abandonment of Manticore. Leaving them to stand alone should hostilities resume (which we've seen would have resulted in their defeat) I don't see Grayson or most of the other Alliance members wanting to trust to Haven's intentions and stability enough to cut themselves off from Manticoran support should the war resume or should this Havenite government fall, like the last few, which could easily trigger renewed foreign aggression.
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Re: The Problem with Haven

by Jonathan_S » Mon Oct 20, 2014 11:48 am

Jonathan_S
Fleet Admiral

Posts: 8800
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 2:01 pm
Location: Virginia, USA

GregD wrote:
For your first point: so what?

1: High Ridge already established that Star Nations can act unilaterally, no one not already his partisan is going to care that Grayson went around his back unilaterally.

2: 2 years into the cease-fire, Steadholder Harrington comes before the House of Lords, announcing that Grayson, Erewhon, and the rest of the worlds of the Alliance have negotiated a peace treaty with the Republic of Haven, said Treaty to go into effect in 6 months, or when Manticore signs, whichever comes first. She then plays a video from Queen Elizabeth saying that she's seen the terms of the treaty, finds it quite fair, and calls on Parliament to end the war with Haven. Then she reads the Treaty.

A: You really think Erewhon wouldn't sign on?
B: You really think Pritchard wouldn't agree to a fair treaty?
C: You really think the House of Lords will reject a Peace Treaty with Haven just because Grayson negotiated it?

You've got all the Crown Loyalists and Centrists supporting it. All you need are enough Independents and (people who would have become Cathy M's) New Liberals to get to a majority, and the war is over.

If Manticore stays at war because essentially every single Liberal in the Lords voted against a Peace Treaty, the Liberals would be utterly destroyed in the Commons for a generation. a Prolong generation.

Not going to happen. It passes, the war's over, all the wartime taxes are repealed, the government is forced to call an election, and after it's over all the San Martino Lords get to join.

Game over, High Ridge government.

As for your second point, go reread the beginning of War of Honor. Note how pissed Honor, and everyone else on her side, is about how long things are dragging on. Those people should have been willing to do anything they needed to do to cut short the corruption and disaster of the High Ridge government.

And Grayson negotiating a separate Peace Treaty does not spark a Manticorian Constitutional fight. The Queen "didn't do anything." This isn't the Queen's Treaty, it's Grayson's. Now, the Queen thinks it's a really good treaty, and hopes Parliament will ratify it quickly, but that's not a Constitutional problem.

Now, will anyone on the other side believe that? Of course not. Who cares? Elizabeth wants to strangle every single one of them with her own hands. Pissing them off mightily, when there's nothing they can do about it, and harming, if not completely destroying, all their plans in the bargain?

Priceless.

While I'm sure Haven would have been happy to have an independent peaces with Grayson (who was unquestionably a net asset to Manticore should war resume), and even though the rest of the minor members were probably a net liability to Manticore I'm sure they would have settled with them as well.

But Grayson can't really negotiate on the single point Haven cares about; disposition of the occupies systems - because Grayson doesn't occupy them. Grayson and the rest of the alliance can't promise anything about what happens to them, because none of them can order the RMN Army and Navy forces in those systems to allow plebiacites, or allow Havenite observers.

So even though they all might think mutually, or multilaterally, overseen plebiacites are fair for everything except Trevor's Star they can't really negotiate for that point.

Also, they have a responsibility to think about what happens if this goes wrong. If Manticore doesn't sign a matching peace treaty then there are 2 huge problems.
1) They effectively unilaterally removed themselves from the mutual defense treaty with Manticore - so if Haven did become agressive again they're defenseless (except for Grayson, which can't protect all of them)

2) Grayson pulling out is effectively an abandonment of Manticore. Leaving them to stand alone should hostilities resume (which we've seen would have resulted in their defeat)

I don't see Grayson or most of the other Alliance members wanting to trust to Haven's intentions and stability enough to cut themselves off from Manticoran support should the war resume or should this Havenite government fall, like the last few, which could easily trigger renewed foreign aggression.

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Re: The Problem with Haven
by Kater » Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:22 pm
Kater Ensign Posts: 11 Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:44 am Location: Vienna, Austria	Well I did only read the first two posts (no time to read the whole theead) 1. Economic miracle - its fast, but I think its believable because a) it has happened during a phase of national emergency - people who get (enough) motivation are able to do exceptional things. b) Quantity is a quality in itself - considering the size of Haven and comparing it to Manticore the former would need only a fraction of its manpower used efficiently to match Manticores output. If Haven operated somewhat near Manticore efficiency level Manticore would never be able to "resist" - So I assume Haven operstes still on a quite low level and most of its popoulation still lives the live of a dolist And among a large population you will have the occasional genius (Shannon I am pointing at you now) who balances the hordes of effeciant Manticoran ants Haven is only slowly implementing the maxime "make work pay". As long as a olist would not lead a better life if he works he will stay at home and do nothing. But you need money to pay wages that are significantly higher than the average dolists allowance. Initially you will have only a few "working people" - but once the economy recovers the wages will rise - you simply have to make wages rise more than the dolists allowance. Concerning relations Manticore and Haven I agree with rose and heather (?) that it was clear at an early stage that both will one day be friends. It would be a no go in literature to paint opponents an loveable characters (Theisman, Foraker, Tourville - they were never villains while still being the enemy )
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Re: The Problem with Haven

by Kater » Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:22 pm

Kater
Ensign

Posts: 11
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:44 am
Location: Vienna, Austria

Well I did only read the first two posts (no time to read the whole theead)

1. Economic miracle - its fast, but I think its believable because

a) it has happened during a phase of national emergency - people who get (enough) motivation are able to do exceptional things.

b) Quantity is a quality in itself - considering the size of Haven and comparing it to Manticore the former would need only a fraction of its manpower used efficiently to match Manticores output. If Haven operated somewhat near Manticore efficiency level Manticore would never be able to "resist" - So I assume Haven operstes still on a quite low level and most of its popoulation still lives the live of a dolist

And among a large population you will have the occasional genius (Shannon I am pointing at you now) who balances the hordes of effeciant Manticoran ants :twisted:

Haven is only slowly implementing the maxime "make work pay". As long as a olist would not lead a better life if he works he will stay at home and do nothing. But you need money to pay wages that are significantly higher than the average dolists allowance. Initially you will have only a few "working people" - but once the economy recovers the wages will rise - you simply have to make wages rise more than the dolists allowance.

Concerning relations Manticore and Haven I agree with rose and heather (?) that it was clear at an early stage that both will one day be friends. It would be a no go in literature to paint opponents an loveable characters (Theisman, Foraker, Tourville - they were never villains while still being the enemy :twisted:

)

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Re: The Problem with Haven
by Tenshinai » Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:54 pm
Tenshinai Admiral Posts: 2893 Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2010 8:34 pm Location: Sweden	It would be a no go in literature to paint opponents an loveable characters Oh goodness no! Quite the opposite, always making sure that all villains are suitably evil and despicable is a classical mistake of writing. Any villain should an individual, and if their motivation or personality makes them loveable, then that´s who they are.
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Re: The Problem with Haven

by Tenshinai » Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:54 pm

Tenshinai
Admiral

Posts: 2893
Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2010 8:34 pm
Location: Sweden

It would be a no go in literature to paint opponents an loveable characters

Oh goodness no! Quite the opposite, always making sure that all villains are suitably evil and despicable is a classical mistake of writing.

Any villain should an individual, and if their motivation or personality makes them loveable, then that´s who they are.

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Re: The Problem with Haven
by DDHv » Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:59 pm
DDHv Captain of the List Posts: 494 Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2014 5:59 pm	Kater wrote:Haven is only slowly implementing the maxime "make work pay". As long as a olist would not lead a better life if he works he will stay at home and do nothing. But you need money to pay wages that are significantly higher than the average dolists allowance. Initially you will have only a few "working people" - but once the economy recovers the wages will rise - you simply have to make wages rise more than the dolists allowance. ) A few decades back, I read in Scientific American about an experiment in New Jersey. They picked fifty families on welfare, and arranged it so that when they earned from work, their welfare checks were reduced by only half the usual amount. If remember right, at the end of a year, 49 of the families were working. The article didn't say what the results were when the experiment ended. BTW, has anyone else read the article that mentioned the amount welfare people will need to earn to equal what they are getting in each of the fifty states? Don't remember where it was. Douglas Hvistendahl Retired technical nerd Dumb mistakes are very irritating. Smart mistakes go on forever Unless you test your assumptions!
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Re: The Problem with Haven

by DDHv » Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:59 pm

DDHv
Captain of the List

Posts: 494
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2014 5:59 pm

Kater wrote:Haven is only slowly implementing the maxime "make work pay". As long as a olist would not lead a better life if he works he will stay at home and do nothing. But you need money to pay wages that are significantly higher than the average dolists allowance. Initially you will have only a few "working people" - but once the economy recovers the wages will rise - you simply have to make wages rise more than the dolists allowance.
)

A few decades back, I read in Scientific American about an experiment in New Jersey. They picked fifty families on welfare, and arranged it so that when they earned from work, their welfare checks were reduced by only half the usual amount. If remember right, at the end of a year, 49 of the families were working. The article didn't say what the results were when the experiment ended.

BTW, has anyone else read the article that mentioned the amount welfare people will need to earn to equal what they are getting in each of the fifty states? Don't remember where it was.

Douglas Hvistendahl
Retired technical nerd

Dumb mistakes are very irritating.
Smart mistakes go on forever
Unless you test your assumptions!

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