Lacöon I

lyonheart wrote:Hi Zakharra,

The Executive Council vote was corrupt, largely bought and paid for by the mandarins, as it has been for centuries, so claiming it was a demonstration of patriotism is a bit over the top.

The inertia of tradition explains a lot of any lingering support for the SL, but going back to CoS etc, the textev and RFC's posts indicates the average 'Sollie citizen' is rather ambivalent towards the SL, since he doesn't feel it affects hum in any direct way.

That's now changed, but in a rather negative fashion, because of the economic results of the mandarins actions, so the popular support of the SL has probably declined faster and further than at any time in its ~800 year history, not that the past is any guide thru the chaos embracing the SL today.

Regarding freighter construction, given the pitiful numbers needed every year to maintain most SL member's tiny merchant marines, while Manticore builds dozens if not hundreds at far cheaper prices [especially if they're not actually built in Manticore] so those not helped by government subsidies buy Manticoran, which was the process for decades if not centuries.

Its going to take a couple of years to ramp up such pathetic production, years the SL doesn't have, while other cheaper solutions are demonstrated by neighbors, which critics of the government use to gain power.

I'm sorry, but the idea transtellars wouldn't take advantage of cheaper wages in the shells, protectorates or verge because they're somehow patriotic seems rather laughable based on the available evidence.

Yes, some systems will subsidize their building capacity, most still democratic ones keeping costs down won't.

There are rational arguments for both, so both will happen, but given the tens of thousands of MMM freighters even if there were hundreds of SL members building right now it will still take decades to replace the MMM, and this current crisis will last less than 5 according to RFC, so many systems will know in month's what the GA is offering, and see its far cheaper to sign on than spend the money to finish any ships they've started.

L

I would not call the vote against Beowulf a bought vote.I'm sure a good number of Delegates were bought, but to believe all or most were? Hardly. I think it's far more likely that many Delegates and their constituents did truly believe Beowulf did 'stab' the SLN/SL in the back. They might be believing falsely, but for them their belief and outrage would be genuine. Which makes it stronger and harder to dispel because the Delegates \believe what they were told is true.

It's also true that while many Sollie citizens are ambivalent towards the SL, I can't believe they are -that- apathetic that they'd gladly see it torn down. If that is true and they are that apathetic, it's a wonder the SL survived as long as it did without falling apart. There has to be some form of loyalty among the oldest/middle aged members.


The idea that most if not all construction is in the Shell, Protectorate, and the Verge as you're implying is laughable (to use your term). From what I've read most of the systems in the Verge are of lower tech level than the Core and Shell and Protectorate systems, but nothing I have read says that those inner systems would farm out their ship construction. That is an absurd idea. How would they maintain a robust economy with vigorous orbital and space industries? Many of these systems have populations of 3-5 billion or more, some in the 6 billion + range. For them to be a part of the interstellar economy, they -have- to have some orbital construction yards, if only to help maintain ships or build inter system freighters. And somewhere there's a good number of systems that would have hyperdrive and alpha/beta node factories. Such factories would bring in a -lot- of money and it's entirely likely those corporations that build them have good deals to keep those wealth producing factories in the system. Not to mention the more people that have jobs, the more that can pay taxes, and I've not heard the SL is a place that has excessive taxation or wealth transfers like the Peoples Republic of Haven did. So that means many people having decent paying jobs in space based industries.

Another thing to consider; corporations that own and operate shipyards don't need to be large or even medium sized trans-stellars. They can be small (relatively) system based corporations that have specialized in say ship construction. That's all they do, build starships. Freighters and special order vessels. After they are finished, the new owner comes and picks it up or its delivered by someone else to the owner. They could also be a small trans-stellar, having operations in several systems, but nowhere near the size of the big trans-stellars. Just a small system (or four) based corp that builds starships/units for starships. You seem to be thinking that all ship building corps have to be these massive trans-stellars spanning many systems with their fingers deep into many governments. Why does a ship building corporation have to be one of these large ones? Why can;t it be a smaller one that can still employ anywhere from a million to tens of millions of people in a single system doing the one thing the corporation is known for: Ship construction or parts.

Removal of the MMM was the primary objective of Lacoon 1 to protect them from the SLN/System government reprisals. If the Mandarins had then negotiated in good faith, the MMM would have return and for the most part, the effect would have been a limited delay in the transfer of materials around the SL.
Yes, some contracts may have been lost but the various MMM ships have been doing these routes for years, have built up good contacts and the factors which pushed people to using the MMM in the first place would still exist (i.e. lower costs, faster transit, etc.).

Assuming SEM hadn't need to activate Lacoon 2 the long term cost consequence would probably have focused on the trans-stellar forcing the SL departments to lower costs (i.e. taxes and regulations) so that more material could be moved in SLM ships and therefore not be dependant on MMM, possible combined with some local regulations to add costs to the MMM ships to push them out of the SL sphere.

Hi Zakharra,

Sorry, I have to disagree.

Millions and millions of people building a paltry few freighters a year is not a competitive business model in the honorverse.

Tens of millions employed in building starships might describe Manticore, but who in the SL begins to come close in matching the OSK's starship production, or builds even 5%?

For a better perspective of the EC, please read chapter 34 in ART again and other relevant book sections; much earlier Kolokoltsov reminds himself Beowulf unlike most members still sent intelligent representatives to the irrelevant EC; and how the mandarins had pulled out all the stops [ie bribery and blackmail] in getting all they could to vote against Beowulf, the textev states repeatedly the vast majority of EC delegates are bought and paid for, by transtellars among others, and have been for centuries, rarely really representing their nominal home systems, rather than their own greed.

It's one reason Beowulf is washing its hands of the SL, if the EC were still truly representative of the vast majority of the SL, it would probably be still trying to reform it.

Regarding the average 'Sollie's' attitude toward the SL being ambivalent, we have textev from throughout the series.

Granted the attitude has grown gradually, surely subtly supported by the MAlign [probably encouraging local identification and patriotism], and until the recent economic downturn the SL didn't directly impinge upon or affect the lives of most SL citizens [no direct taxes], and keeping them ignorant was a major mandarin policy.

Regarding freighter construction in the SL, please consider my unanswered question regarding the size of the MMM again.

Is it 10,000 or 40,000 or 100,000 freighters and liners etc?

10,000 and even 40,000 is too few to provide so many trained spacers for the RMN, something its been doing for centuries, right up to the present.

Given the MMM dominates the verge and the SL, how many is enough to provide the majority of the merchant hulls in the SL?

From HAE we learned a pirated ~6.7 M-ton freighter was worth almost a billion Manticore dollars, probably something near its construction cost.

If the MMM is around 40,000 and roughly ~55% of the total, then the 32,000 SL ships means an average of 18 owned by each of the SL [for 1784 members] given ships lasting centuries the annual production needed by each member is practically microscopic, even figuring 3-4 per year at a billion each, they'd represent a millionth or less of most member system's GDP, hardly a critical economic resource.

Are there SL members that build a lot of freighters?

Of course, but they'd be on the order of 1-2%, 5% on the outside, not every system; and while ships for export are required by a member like Yildin, most members obviously do not build many if any.

The Maya sector is as heavily industrialized as any of the core worlds, with bio tech as good etc; yet its new warships require Erewhon's help for more than 3-5 years, evidently "heavily industrialized"" doesn't mean building a lot of interstellar capable freighters.

While the verge may be somewhat backward by the standards of the core, its only a couple month's away, so the latter's edge is thin, but the cost of labor always seeks the lowest, so while there are small to medium single system 'transtellars' quite happy to build freighters in or near the core, I also expect quite a few if not many more shipyards in the shells to take advantage of those lower wages, with some transtellars exploring the verge looking to locate where their next new yard should be, a natural cycle.

I'd expect at least some would want theirs to be state of the art when new.

Of course if the OFS could help reduce their start-up costs by turning it into a protectorate, if the locals are too fussy, all the better.

L


[quote="Zakharra"][quote="lyonheart"]Hi Zakharra,

The Executive Council vote was corrupt, largely bought and paid for by the mandarins, as it has been for centuries, so claiming it was a demonstration of patriotism is a bit over the top.

The inertia of tradition explains a lot of any lingering support for the SL, but going back to CoS etc, the textev and RFC's posts indicates the average 'Sollie citizen' is rather ambivalent towards the SL, since he doesn't feel it affects hum in any direct way.

That's now changed, but in a rather negative fashion, because of the economic results of the mandarins actions, so the popular support of the SL has probably declined faster and further than at any time in its ~800 year history, not that the past is any guide thru the chaos embracing the SL today.

Regarding freighter construction, given the pitiful numbers needed every year to maintain most SL member's tiny merchant marines, while Manticore builds dozens if not hundreds at far cheaper prices [especially if they're not actually built in Manticore] so those not helped by government subsidies buy Manticoran, which was the process for decades if not centuries.

Its going to take a couple of years to ramp up such pathetic production, years the SL doesn't have, while other cheaper solutions are demonstrated by neighbors, which critics of the government use to gain power.

I'm sorry, but the idea transtellars wouldn't take advantage of cheaper wages in the shells, protectorates or verge because they're somehow patriotic seems rather laughable based on the available evidence.

Yes, some systems will subsidize their building capacity, most still democratic ones keeping costs down won't.

There are rational arguments for both, so both will happen, but given the tens of thousands of MMM freighters even if there were hundreds of SL members building right now it will still take decades to replace the MMM, and this current crisis will last less than 5 according to RFC, so many systems will know in month's what the GA is offering, and see its far cheaper to sign on than spend the money to finish any ships they've started.

L[/quote]

I would not call the vote against Beowulf a bought vote.I'm sure a good number of Delegates were bought, but to believe all or most were? Hardly. I think it's far more likely that many Delegates and their constituents did truly believe Beowulf did 'stab' the SLN/SL in the back. They might be believing falsely, but for them their belief and outrage would be genuine. Which makes it stronger and harder to dispel because the Delegates [i]\believe[/i] what they were told is true.

It's also true that while many Sollie citizens are ambivalent towards the SL, I can't believe they are -that- apathetic that they'd gladly see it torn down. If that is true and they are that apathetic, it's a wonder the SL survived as long as it did without falling apart. There has to be some form of loyalty among the oldest/middle aged members.


The idea that most if not all construction is in the Shell, Protectorate, and the Verge as you're implying is laughable (to use your term). From what I've read most of the systems in the Verge are of lower tech level than the Core and Shell and Protectorate systems, but nothing I have read says that those inner systems would farm out their ship construction. That is an absurd idea. How would they maintain a robust economy with vigorous orbital and space industries? Many of these systems have populations of 3-5 billion or more, some in the 6 billion + range. For them to be a part of the interstellar economy, they -have- to have some orbital construction yards, if only to help maintain ships or build inter system freighters. And somewhere there's a good number of systems that would have hyperdrive and alpha/beta node factories. Such factories would bring in a -lot- of money and it's entirely likely those corporations that build them have good deals to keep those wealth producing factories in the system. Not to mention the more people that have jobs, the more that can pay taxes, and I've not heard the SL is a place that has excessive taxation or wealth transfers like the Peoples Republic of Haven did. So that means many people having decent paying jobs in space based industries.

Another thing to consider; corporations that own and operate shipyards don't need to be large or even medium sized trans-stellars. They can be small (relatively) system based corporations that have specialized in say ship construction. That's all they do, build starships. Freighters and special order vessels. After they are finished, the new owner comes and picks it up or its delivered by someone else to the owner. They could also be a small trans-stellar, having operations in several systems, but nowhere near the size of the big trans-stellars. Just a small system (or four) based corp that builds starships/units for starships. You seem to be thinking that all ship building corps have to be these massive trans-stellars spanning many systems with their fingers deep into many governments. Why does a ship building corporation have to be one of these large ones? Why can;t it be a smaller one that can still employ anywhere from a million to tens of millions of people in a single system doing the one thing the corporation is known for: Ship construction or parts.[/quote]

There are effectively only 2 nations on earth building freighters. Korea and China. Yes, plenty of 1st tier nations still have shipping yards building one off ships, maybe even 2 or 3 off ships, but no one else in the world is building ships on an assembly line. Everyone else is doing just fine...

Lets hope there is no war as there are effectively only 2 nations on earth who can build a war navy and one of those is a tiny po dunk country who has been the others vassal or near vassel state for the last 1000 years.

Why only 2 nations? Because both countries effectively subsidize the industries and the freighters are being sold at below market value. Now in the Honorverse, this is effectively what Manticore has been doing via the wormhole network. Where the rest of the freighters are being built? Who knows.

wastedfly wrote:There are effectively only 2 nations on earth building freighters. Korea and China. Yes, plenty of 1st tier nations still have shipping yards building one off ships, maybe even 2 or 3 off ships, but no one else in the world is building ships on an assembly line. Everyone else is doing just fine...

Lets hope there is no war as there are effectively only 2 nations on earth who can build a war navy and one of those is a tiny po dunk country who has been the others vassal or near vassel state for the last 1000 years.

Why only 2 nations? Because both countries effectively subsidize the industries and the freighters are being sold at below market value. Now in the Honorverse, this is effectively what Manticore has been doing via the wormhole network. Where the rest of the freighters are being built? Who knows.

Those two nations shipyards wouldn't last long in a prolonged war. Not with the missiles, long range bombers/fighters and aircraft carriers and submarines we have. N. Korea's would be pathetically easy to take out. China's a little more difficult, but no where near impossible to do.

Zakharra wrote:Those two nations shipyards wouldn't last long in a prolonged war. Not with the missiles, long range bombers/fighters and aircraft carriers and submarines we have. N. Korea's would be pathetically easy to take out. China's a little more difficult, but no where near impossible to do.

Just for the record, Zakharra, South Korea is the shipbuilding giant, not the North.

That said, I tend to agree that commercial shipbuilding (of freighters larger than 1MT--smaller, intra-system shipyards probably exist in almost all developed systems) is probably concentrated in a few shipyards.

Just for grins, imagine the SL-flagged fleets (non-Manticorian) totals 60,000 ships of 1MT or larger--which I think is high, but for arguments sake, let's use it. Let us also say that freighters have a useful life of 40 years (I suspect it will be much higher, given even modest updates and servicing) and this gives us a 'turnover' rate of 1,500/year. Add 500 additional ships per year (as trade increases) and you need to have facilities to build 2,000 freighters/year.

With nearly 1,900 Member systems, it is unlike that they all have facilities to build on average one frieghter a year. 20 yards building 100 Freighters a year (or 10 building 200) makes a lot more economic sense.

So I think those systems may find themselves visited by the GA sooner rather than later. The infrastructure may not be destroyed (winning hearts and minds), but I would think those yards would not be allowed to deliver thier production to any systems that had not signed treaties with the GA.

We shall see, eventually....IMHA as always. YMMV.

wastedfly wrote:There are effectively only 2 nations on earth building freighters. Korea and China. Yes, plenty of 1st tier nations still have shipping yards building one off ships, maybe even 2 or 3 off ships, but no one else in the world is building ships on an assembly line. Everyone else is doing just fine...

Lets hope there is no war as there are effectively only 2 nations on earth who can build a war navy and one of those is a tiny po dunk country who has been the others vassal or near vassal state for the last 1000 years.

Why only 2 nations? Because both countries effectively subsidize the industries and the freighters are being sold at below market value. Now in the Honorverse, this is effectively what Manticore has been doing via the wormhole network. Where the rest of the freighters are being built? Who knows.

And if suddenly over half of all freighters was unavailable for the foreseeable future, could Korea and China supply the demand for new freighters? I think not. My guess is all the smaller shipyards that is not building large ships will start to tool up and offer to build freighters too.

And building freighters is a far cry from building war ships, which is mostly done by specialized shipyards (what you call one off shipyards).

The largest shipbuilder in the world is Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan) and on second place is Hyundai Heavy Industries (S.Korea). If you look on a per nation basis China is now the leader with S.Korea a close runner up and Japan trailing behind.

In the SL, there are probably smaller shipyards that are tooling up to go from intra-system freighters to interstellar freighters while current yards that are capable of building interstellar freighters are desperately trying to increase their capacity to meet the demand. Right now there are independent traders out there that are making money hand over fist.

Joat42 wrote:And if suddenly over half of all freighters was unavailable for the foreseeable future, could Korea and China supply the demand for new freighters? I think not. My guess is all the smaller shipyards that is not building large ships will start to tool up and offer to build freighters too.

And building freighters is a far cry from building war ships, which is mostly done by specialized shipyards (what you call one off shipyards).

The largest shipbuilder in the world is Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan) and on second place is Hyundai Heavy Industries (S.Korea). If you look on a per nation basis China is now the leader with S.Korea a close runner up and Japan trailing behind.

In the SL, there are probably smaller shipyards that are tooling up to go from intra-system freighters to interstellar freighters while current yards that are capable of building interstellar freighters are desperately trying to increase their capacity to meet the demand. Right now there are independent traders out there that are making money hand over fist.

Nice comments, joat (you realize if you're first name is William, we'll have to call you Billy Joat...

I would note that Lacoon I is, in book time, only six or so months old and most of the smaller yards (which I agree with you exist in most systems) are probably still in the "what the Hell is going on out there" stage and may just be beginning to realize that they need to ramp up. There may be a few smart governments/corporate giants who are better in reading the entrails than the Mandarins, but it's still a matter of going from intra-system ore carriers to inter-stellar transport, and it will take some time to make the conversion.

And time, I think the SL is due to learn, is something that they do not have enough of....

Hutch wrote:And time, I think the SL is due to learn, is something that they do not have enough of....

We all know the wheels are wobbling right now, and I don't think it will be very long before they fall off completely. The only question is actually what will be left of the SL when the dust settles.

Hutch wrote:

Joat42 wrote:And if suddenly over half of all freighters was unavailable for the foreseeable future, could Korea and China supply the demand for new freighters? I think not. My guess is all the smaller shipyards that is not building large ships will start to tool up and offer to build freighters too.

And building freighters is a far cry from building war ships, which is mostly done by specialized shipyards (what you call one off shipyards).

The largest shipbuilder in the world is Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan) and on second place is Hyundai Heavy Industries (S.Korea). If you look on a per nation basis China is now the leader with S.Korea a close runner up and Japan trailing behind.

In the SL, there are probably smaller shipyards that are tooling up to go from intra-system freighters to interstellar freighters while current yards that are capable of building interstellar freighters are desperately trying to increase their capacity to meet the demand. Right now there are independent traders out there that are making money hand over fist.

Nice comments, joat (you realize if you're first name is William, we'll have to call you Billy Joat...

I would note that Lacoon I is, in book time, only six or so months old and most of the smaller yards (which I agree with you exist in most systems) are probably still in the "what the Hell is going on out there" stage and may just be beginning to realize that they need to ramp up. There may be a few smart governments/corporate giants who are better in reading the entrails than the Mandarins, but it's still a matter of going from intra-system ore carriers to inter-stellar transport, and it will take some time to make the conversion.

And time, I think the SL is due to learn, is something that they do not have enough of....

In SITS Senario book #2, It was mentioned that virtually every system in the Silensian Confed had at least 1 construction shipyard. Most of these were small batch shipyards with limited tech - virtually every one could build a Frigate or low tech DD (as well as merchies), and most operated in a mode where it was as expensive to (slowly) build a FG/DD as to run an empty shipyard, so they might as well build the FG/DD (or freighter or Courier) and sell it once it was finished if there was insufficient contracted work.

Only 5 Shipyards were the official shipyards of the navy in Silensia and had the ability to build "high tech" ships in large #s. Only 1 could build BC/BB sized warships

It's Silensia, but it's proof that every industralized system will have a small private shipyard or 2, that probably does not have a massive capability. Most construction seems to be centralized, but an industrialized system has enough little work to keep small shipyards busy