Lacöon I

SYED wrote:We ar forgetting at some point the alliance will be raiding hteir infrastructure and industry, so those systems actually capable of building freighters might soon be targeted.

If they do that, the GA stands to piss off a LOT of the populations of those worlds because they would be destroying the system's orbital industrial infrastructure and preventing the system from improving its own economy.

They at least need to go after the dedicated military logistics, infrastructure and industry. If taken out, the civilian sectors would have to assume the reposibility, so every where that military ships are prioritise, is one less civilian material holding up the economy.

The transtellars we have been shown have been primarily been portrayed as looters and essentialy taking over system economies and power. They have gained control of the governments of said systems or have so taken over (usually by criminal or other type of illegal actions and pressure) the primary export industries of the target systems. They then move to control many levels and opereations of the economies.

Probably there are some "good" or at least not "bad" transtellars that are "just" like multi national corporations today that are perhaps doing things that some people don't like but are operating within the laws of the multiple business enviornments they operate in.

Brigade XO wrote:The transtellars we have been shown have been primarily been portrayed as looters and essentialy taking over system economies and power. They have gained control of the governments of said systems or have so taken over (usually by criminal or other type of illegal actions and pressure) the primary export industries of the target systems. They then move to control many levels and opereations of the economies.

Probably there are some "good" or at least not "bad" transtellars that are "just" like multi national corporations today that are perhaps doing things that some people don't like but are operating within the laws of the multiple business enviornments they operate in.

I'm almost certain that's the vast majority. It's just that companies acting like normal companies are not really important to the story (which is mostly military SF, after all) most of the time, so we don't see them.

Hi Drothgery,

Sol's population is somewhere between 30-40 billion, while the estimated total SL's is in the 11-13 trillion range, or between 1/400-1/300th.

The crews of the active SLN may total around 30 odd million or around a thousandth of Sol's population or less.

Given the several hundred protectorates each with populations of at least a couple billion, if not more given their time since colonization, I'd expect the verge systems to easily surpass a thousand, given a league surface area of something around 400,000 square light years; for a couple trillion people that outnumbers Sol's 30+ billion around 60 times, NTM easily overwhelming its 'rich' economy by several, if not at least ten times despite their relative 'poverty', since they're only weeks away from the league core; keeping in mind that per capita wise, Sol is poor by Manticoran standards.

Your reminder of what's about to happen to league revenues is excellent; once the protectorates quickly remove their OFS shackles, albeit with a little help from the GA, the mandarins will be compelled to tax the remainder of the SL, whatever that rump that's left on a major scale, but that will take time the SL doesn't have.

I'm sure there are hundreds if not thousands or tens of thousands of transtellars that don't exploit the protectorates, making plenty of money within the league and beyond, regarding those that do as bottom feeders; so their reaction to what's about to happen will be interesting.

Given how many transtellars leased MMM freighters like the president's family, and still made huge profits; there are probably many transtellars more than willing to make whatever accommodations they have to with the GA, to regain their leased ships and markets.

Even if the MMM was only ~40% of the league's shipping capacity, not over 60% or whatever, the average per SL member would then be only 3.4% of 1%. [!]

How many building slips per system would satisfy that rather low share of shipping, not forgetting the ships last centuries unlike the 5 years of the Liberty ships?

Granted the 'old league' might average 1/2-1% share each, but just exactly how many ships does the MMM and the SL need?

[This is sort of a trick question, since my previous threads on this subject are generally considered too high.]

Just as ship construction on earth migrated to lower cost nations, I wouldn't be surprised if much of the freighter construction 'bought or built in the league' has already migrated to the verge and beyond with most still in the league being in the outer angry shell, just as Hauptman went to Grayson and other systems to build freighters cheaper; so league access to most actual freighter builders may be a bit awkward for the foreseeable future.

Until the war is seen as a long term problem that requires new expensive investment in shipyards, I don't see that many SL members taking that step when by quitting and switching, or going neutral as some suggest, they can regain access far more cheaply.

Even if such shipyards can be built in two years, that's a long time if other solutions are demonstrably much quicker, simpler and cheaper.

Given the general reaction to the SLN's apparent attack on Beowulf, I suspect many including core systems to quite the league very soon, ie before the end of this year, and thereby regain access to the MMM etc.

Some transtellars may indeed push the system governments to build new shipyards, because they expect the war to be over by the time they're built and can buy it for pennies on the dollar.

The construction of the Geneva Steel works didn't begin until the Battle Midway and steel production didn't start until the end of the war 3 years later, then it was prepared to be shipped to Japan to replace their destroyed steel mills, before US Steel bought it for less than a third its construction cost; its tech was considered futuristic by observers into the 1950's, though it used 1930's tech in order to be built as quickly as possible, but wartime steel shortages etc still delayed its completion.

People keep assuming the rest of the league systems are patriotically enthusiastic about this war, when almost no one identifies themselves as a 'Sollie'; so expecting rapid effective decisions is a stretch, especially when BF isn't there to protect them.

Again given the limited time the league has left, and its demonstrated stupid leadership, I think many league systems will choose to wait and see what offers they get from the GA before making such huge investments when they might not be needed, particularly given the examples of their neighbors.

L

drothgery wrote:

Theemile wrote:I got the impression that most of the Solarian Transstellars had their hands in the cookiejar that is the Verge and their bottom line is dependant on the SL government's deals. It's probably not all of them, but a good portion.

Remember that the Sollies we see in the novels and short stories have almost nothing to do with the life of the average League citizen. For citizens of League members, the League government is not particularly important. The illegal immigrant ghetto in Old Chicago is a tiny percentage of the Sol system's population (or even Old Chicago's). The SLN is, on a per capita basis, absurdly tiny (the entire SLN could be manned by less than 1% of the Sol system population, and if Sol isn't less than 1% of the League, it's not a lot more).

The economy of the entire Verge, combined, is probably smaller than Sol (or any number of heavily populated core worlds), alone. The corrupt transtellars looting the Verge are only important because it's a major source of funding for the League government, which is only the case because the League doesn't have the ability to levy direct taxes.

Hutch wrote:Actually, the Liberty ships were built by commercial shipyards under contract and not at Government shipyards. Many of the ships that survived the war went into commercial use.

And the ships were for a demonstrable military use.

like keeping their allies from collapsing due to some hostile state blockading and raiding their shipping, and replacing the merchant ships that got sunk.

The general quality of the liberty ships was not great. Iirc, more than one sunk at launching.

People keep assuming the rest of the league systems are patriotically enthusiastic about this war, when almost no one identifies themselves as a 'Sollie'; so expecting rapid effective decisions is a stretch, especially when BF isn't there to protect them.

Again given the limited time the league has left, and its demonstrated stupid leadership, I think many league systems will choose to wait and see what offers they get from the GA before making such huge investments when they might not be needed, particularly given the examples of their neighbors.

I'm sure many do identify themselves as Sollies, as well as members/citizens of their systems/planets. I know that a lot of systems don't necessarily self identify as a Sollie, considering that 1/4 of the Delegates voted against the decision to censor/investigate Beowulf), 3/4 -did- vote to do that. There has to be some sort of loyalty to the Solarian League or it would not have lasted this long (800 + years).

Given the declining economy, those systems won't have time to sit and wait. Their populations will be demanding their leaders Do Something now, and building/or expanding something like a shipyard or four and the supporting industries would provide for a -lot- of local jobs and boost the local economy.

Just as ship construction on earth migrated to lower cost nations, I wouldn't be surprised if much of the freighter construction 'bought or built in the league' has already migrated to the verge and beyond with most still in the league being in the outer angry shell, just as Hauptman went to Grayson and other systems to build freighters cheaper; so league access to most actual freighter builders may be a bit awkward for the foreseeable future.

I seriously doubt that many shipyards were farmed out to the outlying systems. Being a productive shipyard would be an immense boost to the system economy for the more industrially developed systems. Since ships are built in space, it's not like they have to worry about things like pollution or environmental damage. And as I mentioned, it also provides a lot of jobs in building/operating the shipyards, as well as the services that supply the shipyards and workers.

kzt wrote:Who built the liberty ships in WW2? Who paid for them? Why was this done?

SWM wrote:
As I recall, the liberty ships were used to transport war materiel, and thus were effectively navy transports. The freighters we are talking about here would be purely civilian transports, used for commercial purposes.

Hutch wrote:Actually, the Liberty ships were built by commercial shipyards under contract and not at Government shipyards. Many of the ships that survived the war went into commercial use.

And the ships were for a demonstrable military use.

And furthermore <grin>, you still need the yard and tooling and personnel to build 2-4 MT "Liberty Ships", and that is where we part company, kzt, because you think all (or at least the large majority) of Core Worlds can do that easily, while I don't

Most of the shipyards for the Liberty ships already existed pre-1940; could the U.S. build them today with our current shipyard status? Between questionable and doubtful.

Won't stop me from buying you a beer at Honorcon...

Right, but they were built under Government contract, and the Government issued those contracts for transports because they needed them for military reasons, to transport military supplies.

The situation in the League is different. The various planetary Governments, and even the League Government, don't seem to have a massive need to shuffle military supplies around. They need to fill in the massive shortfall in commercial shipping. I think the point was that the Governments, whether League or Planetary, are unlikely to issue contracts to build ships just to turn them over to commercial operators for commercial shipping. (But since their isn't a need for military shipping, the Governments aren't going to be issuing Liberty Ship style contracts at all)

That said, the commercial companies are going to be suffering a massive cash flow crisis, so they probably aren't in a good position to be making massive capital investments (buying additional ships) even though they need to due to the drastic shipping crisis.

Hopefully for them some Governments will be smart enough to basically loan the shipyards and/or commercial shippers the money to built/buy additional freighters. Because it's unlikely a lot of banks would be willing to loan that money; not when the war might heat up and destroy the ships prior to paying back the loan, or the war might end and the demand for hull crash again. But government backed loans could get things moving without just giving away freighters for commercial use.

Hi Zakharra,

The Executive Council vote was corrupt, largely bought and paid for by the mandarins, as it has been for centuries, so claiming it was a demonstration of patriotism is a bit over the top.

The inertia of tradition explains a lot of any lingering support for the SL, but going back to CoS etc, the textev and RFC's posts indicates the average 'Sollie citizen' is rather ambivalent towards the SL, since he doesn't feel it affects hum in any direct way.

That's now changed, but in a rather negative fashion, because of the economic results of the mandarins actions, so the popular support of the SL has probably declined faster and further than at any time in its ~800 year history, not that the past is any guide thru the chaos embracing the SL today.

Regarding freighter construction, given the pitiful numbers needed every year to maintain most SL member's tiny merchant marines, while Manticore builds dozens if not hundreds at far cheaper prices [especially if they're not actually built in Manticore] so those not helped by government subsidies buy Manticoran, which was the process for decades if not centuries.

Its going to take a couple of years to ramp up such pathetic production, years the SL doesn't have, while other cheaper solutions are demonstrated by neighbors, which critics of the government use to gain power.

I'm sorry, but the idea transtellars wouldn't take advantage of cheaper wages in the shells, protectorates or verge because they're somehow patriotic seems rather laughable based on the available evidence.

Yes, some systems will subsidize their building capacity, most still democratic ones keeping costs down won't.

There are rational arguments for both, so both will happen, but given the tens of thousands of MMM freighters even if there were hundreds of SL members building right now it will still take decades to replace the MMM, and this current crisis will last less than 5 according to RFC, so many systems will know in month's what the GA is offering, and see its far cheaper to sign on than spend the money to finish any ships they've started.

L

Zakharra wrote:

People keep assuming the rest of the league systems are patriotically enthusiastic about this war, when almost no one identifies themselves as a 'Sollie'; so expecting rapid effective decisions is a stretch, especially when BF isn't there to protect them.

Again given the limited time the league has left, and its demonstrated stupid leadership, I think many league systems will choose to wait and see what offers they get from the GA before making such huge investments when they might not be needed, particularly given the examples of their neighbors.

I'm sure many do identify themselves as Sollies, as well as members/citizens of their systems/planets. I know that a lot of systems don't necessarily self identify as a Sollie, considering that 1/4 of the Delegates voted against the decision to censor/investigate Beowulf), 3/4 -did- vote to do that. There has to be some sort of loyalty to the Solarian League or it would not have lasted this long (800 + years).

Given the declining economy, those systems won't have time to sit and wait. Their populations will be demanding their leaders Do Something now, and building/or expanding something like a shipyard or four and the supporting industries would provide for a -lot- of local jobs and boost the local economy.

Just as ship construction on earth migrated to lower cost nations, I wouldn't be surprised if much of the freighter construction 'bought or built in the league' has already migrated to the verge and beyond with most still in the league being in the outer angry shell, just as Hauptman went to Grayson and other systems to build freighters cheaper; so league access to most actual freighter builders may be a bit awkward for the foreseeable future.

I seriously doubt that many shipyards were farmed out to the outlying systems. Being a productive shipyard would be an immense boost to the system economy for the more industrially developed systems. Since ships are built in space, it's not like they have to worry about things like pollution or environmental damage. And as I mentioned, it also provides a lot of jobs in building/operating the shipyards, as well as the services that supply the shipyards and workers.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Zakharra,

...

Regarding freighter construction, given the pitiful numbers needed every year to maintain most SL member's tiny merchant marines, while Manticore builds dozens if not hundreds at far cheaper prices [especially if they're not actually built in Manticore] so those not helped by government subsidies buy Manticoran, which was the process for decades if not centuries.

Its going to take a couple of years to ramp up such pathetic production, years the SL doesn't have, while other cheaper solutions are demonstrated by neighbors, which critics of the government use to gain power.

...

Yes, some systems will subsidize their building capacity, most still democratic ones keeping costs down won't.

There are rational arguments for both, so both will happen, but given the tens of thousands of MMM freighters even if there were hundreds of SL members building right now it will still take decades to replace the MMM, and this current crisis will last less than 5 according to RFC, so many systems will know in month's what the GA is offering, and see its far cheaper to sign on than spend the money to finish any ships they've started.

L

I think you missed the point I was trying to make upthread, which is that a typical system probably has over an order of magnitude more in-system ships than the quantity it needs for interstellar shipping, so it's got the shipyards to replace those ships as they wear out. The only thing it needs to add to build interstellar freighters is the assembly lines to build hyper-drives, alpha nodes and longer-term life support.

Now, I'll grant you that it's not going to be building a lot of interstellar freighters, but it will have the yard capacity and workforce to be able to build some within a year or so, simply by deferring building in-system freighters of a similar size.