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SLN, and MAlign playing catch up with Manticoran superiority

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Re: SLN, and MAlign playing catch up with Manticoran superio
Post by Jonathan_S   » Sun Mar 31, 2024 12:05 pm

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tlb wrote:
Jonathan_S wrote:As for picking up details in bars, that would rather seem to depend on whether any techs had ever cycled back from Bolthole. It's certainly not impossible that as an ultra secret yard that all the workers were moved to Calvin's Hope 'for the duration'.

What "duration"? The Solarian League has been pacified and Galton has been conquered. Why would they never be allowed to return from Sanctuary (not Calvin's Hope) at this point? For that matter Haven has promised to reveal the secret of Sanctuary and the fate of the Calvin's Hope colonists.

It would require an LD attack somewhere for the GA to realize that Bolthole secrecy must still be preserved.

Poss my until the MAlign is defeated, or at least the GA has used Simone’s knowledge to build a spider of their own to prove out a USABLE spider detector.

Without knowing you’ve a reliable counter for a repeat of the attack that wiped out Manticore and Grayson ship building (and caused such heavy loss of life) id. D extremely reluctant to expose my last modern yards, and relocated R&D establishment.

Though maybe you’d be willing to risk it one Manticore and Grayson’s yards were rebuilt, and Haven and Beowulf’s upgraded to build modern combatants. At least then you’d have some redundancy. But it’d still be a massive risk without confidence you can prevent a follow-up stealth strike.
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Re: SLN, and MAlign playing catch up with Manticoran superio
Post by tlb   » Sun Mar 31, 2024 12:30 pm

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tlb wrote:What "duration"? The Solarian League has been pacified and Galton has been conquered. Why would they never be allowed to return from Sanctuary (not Calvin's Hope) at this point? For that matter Haven has promised to reveal the secret of Sanctuary and the fate of the Calvin's Hope colonists.

It would require an LD attack somewhere for the GA to realize that Bolthole secrecy must still be preserved.

Jonathan_S wrote:Poss my until the MAlign is defeated, or at least the GA has used Simone’s knowledge to build a spider of their own to prove out a USABLE spider detector.

Without knowing you’ve a reliable counter for a repeat of the attack that wiped out Manticore and Grayson ship building (and caused such heavy loss of life) id. D extremely reluctant to expose my last modern yards, and relocated R&D establishment.

Though maybe you’d be willing to risk it one Manticore and Grayson’s yards were rebuilt, and Haven and Beowulf’s upgraded to build modern combatants. At least then you’d have some redundancy. But it’d still be a massive risk without confidence you can prevent a follow-up stealth strike.

It is NOT clear what knowledge Herlander Simões has about the spider drive, since he was an expert on the streak drive. We know that there is mention of the spider drive after his defection, but no evidence of knowledge about its workings.

The evidence from Galton is going to "prove" that the Oyster Bay attack was performed by the technology captured there.
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Re: SLN, and MAlign playing catch up with Manticoran superio
Post by Joat42   » Sun Mar 31, 2024 8:01 pm

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tlb wrote:It is NOT clear what knowledge Herlander Simões has about the spider drive, since he was an expert on the streak drive.

He knew some of the rudimentary basics of it according to textev.

tlb wrote:The evidence from Galton is going to "prove" that the Oyster Bay attack was performed by the technology captured there.

Have you considered how far out of step Galton is in behavior when we compare it to the MAlign in general?

As I've said before, the Galton-strike will publicly be presented as a win against the MAlign but I'm confident that the intelligence services will keep digging because there are some loose threads that can't be answered by Galton.

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Re: SLN, and MAlign playing catch up with Manticoran superio
Post by tlb   » Sun Mar 31, 2024 8:39 pm

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Joat42 wrote:
tlb wrote:It is NOT clear what knowledge Herlander Simões has about the spider drive, since he was an expert on the streak drive.
He knew some of the rudimentary basics of it according to textev.

I don't remenber; where did this text occur, so I can examine it?
Joat42 wrote:
tlb wrote:The evidence from Galton is going to "prove" that the Oyster Bay attack was performed by the technology captured there.
Have you considered how far out of step Galton is in behavior when we compare it to the MAlign in general?

As I've said before, the Galton-strike will publicly be presented as a win against the MAlign but I'm confident that the intelligence services will keep digging because there are some loose threads that can't be answered by Galton.

I would hope that there are loose threads, but I do not know what you mean when you say Galton is "far out of step ... in behavior when we compare it to the MAlign in general". Please explain, since it would have been very much in character for them to be the force behind Oyster Bay and the explosions at Beowulf's orbitals. Also they were the source of the Cataphracts.
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Re: SLN, and MAlign playing catch up with Manticoran superio
Post by Brigade XO   » Mon Apr 01, 2024 6:16 am

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We still need to see how the LDs actually get used.


What happens if there are 25LD and they are sent out against the 24 (hold one pending the finding where HAVEN is building all those new ships)
Hit the 24 largest systems with the largest military capacity. Ok, Start with Manticore, Haven, Erwhon, then Aldermani Empire and then Technodyne's manufacturing system and work down from there including Beowulf.

Take out each systems orbital habits and manufacturing plus any military materials storage.

On the way, (in or out) park a couple of G-torps to take our the Astro Control for any wormhole situated relative to the system.

Work your way down by any criteria you want including absolute toughness of political will and population.

The Alignment doesn't care about regular humans, they want cattle to make stuff for them and to rule over.

Strike #1 with the LDs (depending on what they can actually do) will massively cut back both the relative numbers of trained, capable seafaring humans and the most modern capacity to build warships and other things. After that......sort of just cleanup. The Alignment just can then crush resistance and -ultimatly- hunt down any organized military resistance by survivors. They have to resupply somewhere and need weapons they can load.

How the Alignment intends to Pacify the populations of systems other than by subverting their education and philosophy institutions can wait.
But this would just end up as War Porn and I doubt RFC is going to take this route, at least not on wholesale basis,
We shall see
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Re: SLN, and MAlign playing catch up with Manticoran superio
Post by penny   » Mon Apr 01, 2024 7:21 am

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Jonathan_S wrote:As for picking up details in bars, that would rather seem to depend on whether any techs had ever cycled back from Bolthole. It's certainly not impossible that as an ultra secret yard that all the workers were moved to Calvin's Hope 'for the duration'.

If so then the only bars where spies could pick up tidbits from the workers would be the ones on the stations or planet of Calvin's Hope -- and if you've got spies in-system then said spies would have more direct ways of seeing what the sky looked like or determining the system's location [G].


(Kind of like how it would have been hard to learn of the Manhattan project during WWII because the bars the scientists and techs were hanging out at and possibly talking too freely in were almost exclusively within the high security compounds at Los Alamos, Oak Ridge, and Hanford. If the spies had access to those bars they already knew of the project and had access into its secure enclaves. Of course there were spies; but they were scientists, who'd been recruited into the project, and who for ideological reasons were sharing technical details with the Soviets)


And to maintain secrecy any transit crews could be denied shore leave anywhere on the Haven side of the wormhole. They drop off their ships at the delivery yards, board the return transport and head off. No bar stops -- so no place for spies to easily eavesdrop.

For the duration? As in, forever? That is like uprooting entire families ... not just the immediate relatives -- and telling them they will have to relocate forever to another planet. That will sit well with them for sure. And of course, there is a magic pill that can be administered for homesickness and missing extended families.

The Manhattan Project only lasted for five years. That is ~ equal to one tour over seas. But you cannot "hold hostage" an entire family "for the duration." For Bolthole, that equates to forever. Resentment is a major ingredient found in a traitor. If for the duration, extended families and friends are cut off, those extended families and friends can begin to talk and complain. That alone could alert the MAlign that these families are persons of interest.

Then there are the major players, like Foraker, who have to shuttle back and forth for whatever reason other than to visit family. And those visits by the major players will not be made in single ships without the necessary escorts. You want to protect your major assets. Foraker is a major asset. As is Sonja, who would certainly travel back to the MBS from time to time. There will be support personnel in the accompanying ships, who will certainly have leave time back on planet.

And do not forget about the nanite, whose "benign" capabilities we do not know. The nanites do not have to be utilized only to kill. They might be able to be used to ferret out information.

Question. Finding Bolthole alone, could represent one of those varying missions for an LD to get in very close. If the correct Wormhole is found that leads to Bolthole, is it possible for an LD to skulk in very close and ... 'Surprise! Everyone put your hands up! Push any buttons and you die.' The people in ACS need time to delete files. These people are civilians, and civilians cannot be expected to be trained, or be so quick, to sacrifice their life for an ideal. I suppose that these personnel should be retired naval personnel. But I wouldn't bank on it.

At any rate, shit happens!

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Last edited by penny on Thu Apr 04, 2024 4:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SLN, and MAlign playing catch up with Manticoran superio
Post by tlb   » Mon Apr 01, 2024 9:00 am

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penny wrote:And do not forget about the nanite, whose "benign" capabilities we do not know. The nanites do not have to be utilized only to kill. They might be able to be used to ferret out information.

The nanites only know what they have been taught or programmed; they cannot use someone's password, for example. So you will need to supply an example of what you mean, since they cannot be used to force an email to a handler giving all passwords and key personal information.

The only thing that I see immediately is making it easier to capture and torture some specific person.
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Re: SLN, and MAlign playing catch up with Manticoran superio
Post by Jonathan_S   » Mon Apr 01, 2024 10:01 am

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penny wrote:Question. Finding Bolthole alone, could represent one of those varying missions for an LD to get in very close. If the correct Wormhole is found that leads to Bolthole, is it possible for an LD to skulk in very close and ... 'Surprise! Everyone put your hands up! Push any buttons and you die.' The people in ACS need time to delete files. These people are civilians, and civilians cannot be expected to be trained, or be so quick, to sacrifice their life for an ideal. I suppose that these personnel should be retired naval personnel. But I wouldn't bank on it.

At any rate, shit happens!

It would also have to deal with any forts guarding the wormhole.

But, presumably it'd find the Haven side of the wormhole. All that Astro Control files would have in details of how to safely transit that terminus -- they'd have no reason to contain the galactic coordinates for the Bolthole side terminus; nor the galactic coordinates for Bolthole itself.

(After all, if the LD somehow stumbled across the Bolthole side terminus they'd be able to find the nearby Bolthole without holding up Astro control for a map)

And then they'd be stuck with the same problem that Manicore has with Torch -- wormhole physicists say there's no way to determine where a terminus goes (not even a general bearing) just by observing it. You have to go through and then figure out where you appeared. But the Bolthole side terminus would also presumably be defended by forts -- so a hostile or unauthorized transit of the wormhole is likely to be exciting and very very short. (There's no way the forts could miss the arrival flare of the wormhole transit -- no matter how stealthy the ship otherwise might be)

So I'm not worried about Bolthole being found that way.
Now, potentially, Bolthole could be blockaded if the Haven side terminus was found by the MAlign -- hang around in stealth and blow up any ship trying to use it. But that wouldn't expose the system's location - despite being a major problem in its own way until/unless the LD(s) can be chased off.
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Re: SLN, and MAlign playing catch up with Manticoran superio
Post by penny   » Mon Apr 01, 2024 10:35 am

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tlb wrote:
penny wrote:And do not forget about the nanite, whose "benign" capabilities we do not know. The nanites do not have to be utilized only to kill. They might be able to be used to ferret out information.

The nanites only know what they have been taught or programmed; they cannot use someone's password, for example. So you will need to supply an example of what you mean, since they cannot be used to force an email to a handler giving all passwords and key personal information.

The only thing that I see immediately is making it easier to capture and torture some specific person.

Without being an actual security consultant for the GA who is familiar with every aspect of OpSec related to Bolthole and also the usual measures taken to protect security, then your guess is as good as mine.

There could be something that should not be done after inputting the coordinates. Something innocuous that would leak the coordinates, or save them to a wireless device that the victim is completely oblivious of. And do consider that this ferret operation could involve two or more persons.

Activating a device or pushing a button is perfect for nanite programming.
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Re: SLN, and MAlign playing catch up with Manticoran superio
Post by tlb   » Mon Apr 01, 2024 11:09 am

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penny wrote:And do not forget about the nanite, whose "benign" capabilities we do not know. The nanites do not have to be utilized only to kill. They might be able to be used to ferret out information.

tlb wrote:The nanites only know what they have been taught or programmed; they cannot use someone's password, for example. So you will need to supply an example of what you mean, since they cannot be used to force an email to a handler giving all passwords and key personal information.

The only thing that I see immediately is making it easier to capture and torture some specific person.

penny wrote:Without being an actual security consultant for the GA who is familiar with every aspect of OpSec related to Bolthole and also the usual measures taken to protect security, then your guess is as good as mine.

There could be something that should not be done after inputting the coordinates. Something innocuous that would leak the coordinates, or save them to a wireless device that the victim is completely oblivious of. And do consider that this ferret operation could involve two or more persons.

Activating a device or pushing a button is perfect for nanite programming.

Sorry, but those activities sound as though they require an agent who is so deeply involved, that they would already know the location. This involves things that can only happen at Bolthole or the wormhole access point.
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