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Attacking Darius:

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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by Brigade XO   » Mon Oct 23, 2023 10:29 pm

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1) The woman who was afraid of being killed at Darius. A Houdini relocation. She's a strategy and tactics person....she KNOWS about the spider drives, the GTorps and all sorts of other things and she was tasked to game out on the computer in that giant simulator how to DEFEND as system which is clearly a vast industrial operation and weapons producer but is specifically NOT ALLOWED to have ANY of the Alignments most advanced weapons and ships. NONE

She has all sorts of info the Alignment has on the GA so far and she is not just hamstrung with lack of spider drives and the GTorps, we don't see any Ghost type ships and nothing beyond the Hasta. Ok, I don't recall if she knew what Galton was able to do with Hosta.
WHY was she afraid? She had figured out that she was gaming this out and this was a major unknown system and they were going to get devastated regardless of what they did unless they at least had the existing depleted advance ships and weapons. And there was NO planning for getting anybody out. She (and she thinks about it we got to read it) is now afraid to even think about what she knows what all of this means because then she will become a security risk and she has seen (watched the other Houdini freighter suicide and the GAUL who was the guard on her ship was going to kill her and McBride.
I believe she is hoping that she doesn't just get killed when the project is finished because the Alignment is letting all sorts of desperate tactics get used in her scenarios and they won't allow her to use the only things that might give a chance that it won't be hammered to bits.


As far as the GA not doing anything about the AlignmentsOyster Bay weapons, they are, just they don't know enough about what they are facing. We listen to Hamish walkabout the new stations being built with either full time sidewalls or various shielding schemes. But nobody can yet detect either the wepons (primarily the GTorps ) or the ships that launched them. Hamish also brought up the idea that, as devastating as the attack at Grayson and Manticore was, it wasn't what it could have been........nothing else was hit....no other SEM systems, not the Peeps, not the SLl, not the Andies. So this was a sneak attack of an unknown entity that doesn't appear to have been ready. Sure, Manticore etc don't know what the Alignment's plans are, but SEM and Grayson really worried them so they struck with and where they could with probably as much as they were able to do at the time.

The other thing the GA -and now the SLN- along with Beowulf is doing is actively hunting for "the other guys". Stealthily hunting and working though leads to track down what they know exists even if it's not clear exactly what the other side wants.
There are other things that now look odd to the Ghost Hunters and the GA teams.....just like the Genetic Slave business didn't ultimately make any sense in terms of money, now that Manpower and some other pieces have been swept away, what is it that the "Alignment" actually wants. They don't actually seem to want to capture systems and build an empire because so much of what they were doing was ultimately just corrupting governments (or feeding their corruption and localized holding systems as petty dictators for life. This isn't politics and military aggression, it's .............unclear what the motivation is.


When the GA finds Darius? Probably the best thing would to slip a Nova Device into the star and sterilize the system but RFC doesn't do things like that so nobody in the Honorverse has anything like that. But after all that has gone on and now what happened at Galton with the fake surrender.....who is going to trust anything done by a group who outfits anybody they deal with with nanite suicide divics (a lot of these are equipped without their knowledge or consent) and routinely destroys almost anything to hide it's tracks.

No clue how this is going to work out.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by kzt   » Tue Oct 24, 2023 4:47 am

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:Indeed. And I don't think he will. I still think the time jump will be a decade on the outside, which will not allow the MAN to build more than 10 LDs (3 years per ship, 3 ships at a time).

Galton didn't build fast. It took them 200 T-years to reach the point they were at when they got discovered. They had a handful of SD(P)s out of their 48 wallers, 9 T-years after the Medusas got unveiled during Operation Buttercup. I don't recall modern LACs and CLACs at all.

The entire RMN was constructed and maintained by not more then 4 million people. About 7 million were killed when the blew up the platforms, but how many of them were kids, bartenders or ‘entertainers’?

So no, that is an absurdity slow build rate. If they have the crews to man them they can build at the rate the RMN built SDs.

And rember the Queen mentioning what she’d do if an invisible she suddenly appeared in orbit around Manticore and demanded surrender? What if a couple of 30mt LDs appeared in orbit around Manticore and demanded surrender?
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by penny   » Tue Oct 24, 2023 7:59 am

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Thinksmarkedly wrote:
tlb wrote:As to the question of destroyed planets, we will just have to wait and see whether the author will write such a scenario.


We know he won't.


I didn't get that memo either. The last memo I got from the author on that subject stated that no entity will contemplate destroying planets, EXCEPT in the face of utter defeat and helplessness. Factor in the entity in question and we should all be hiding in our basements.

Besides. Do recall what happened when the US dropped nukes on Japan. How much of each planet is destroyed will depend on the victim's intransigence. It is like pouring someone else's whiskey. "Say when."

Japan said 'when' after Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

One thing is for certain. We all have always agreed on one thing. The LDs were certainly developed to sit on the outskirts of town and toss torpedoes. They will show Honor how it's done.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by penny   » Tue Oct 24, 2023 8:20 am

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
penny wrote:Beowulf's industrial capacity will be destroyed. Bolthole will be destroyed. Both are At All Costs targets. There are always important bridges to destroy in all wars. These systems are the GA's bridges to recovery. They will be on the LDs hit list for certain. Isn't this what the Yawata Strike was about? The MA did their due diligence.


You have to consider the GA as a whole, which increases the number of targets a lot. The MAlign needs to attack and destroy at least the industrial components in:
  1. Manticore binary system (both components)
  2. Yeltsin's Star system (Grayson)
  3. Haven system
  4. Refuge system (Bolthole)
  5. New Berlin system (Andermani capital system)
  6. Sigma Draconis system (Beowulf)

I also expect each of the multi-system polities (SEM, Andermani, Haven) to have one other location with significant military-industrial presence. We know that Haven had 2 or 3 more yards in addition to the Haven and Bolthole, because they were being used in the Second War to hide the construction of Haven's pre-pod SDs. We don't know if they were modernised, turned civilian, or deactivated. We also know that the Andermani were refitting their SDs at a location that Haven couldn't find during that war, so there's at least one more major, hidden yard somewhere.

If you take out only one or two of the list above, the rest will take up capacity. In a pinch, the GA can also shift some of their demands to close allies, like Erewhon and the Carlucci Industries who were building ships for the ESN and for Maya. There also yards in Silesia, though those come in third after the Erewhon ones, at least in the near future. There may be also high tech civilian yards in Hypatia that could be converted to military use faster than the Silesian ones.

Kingsford would be happy to repair all those ships, for free, so long as the technicians could keep their notes.


The Darius System

War Room

Looking into the star map. "Three here. Three here. Three here. Three here. Three here. And three ... here. That's what?"

"Eighteen sir."

"Hmmm... better send two extra LDs to the MBS to cover those damn resourceful Manticorans. They have one of our Alphas. That makes twenty. Let's go ahead and allocate an extra LD to give us a full hand of twenty-one."


If the MA has done their due diligence and knows about Bolthole, they will certainly be aware of any other bridges that need destroying.

I'd like to know how they'll use the Streak Boats to tackle the Two General's Problem.

With Solly tech and intransigence and SLN hubris, Sol's infrastructure can be taken out with a squadron of Ghosts.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by tlb   » Tue Oct 24, 2023 8:41 am

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kzt wrote:And rember the Queen mentioning what she’d do if an invisible she suddenly appeared in orbit around Manticore and demanded surrender? What if a couple of 30mt LDs appeared in orbit around Manticore and demanded surrender?

We have discussed this situation before. The traditional view is that a planet is expected to surrender when the enemy captures the low orbitals. However this presupposes that the home fleet has been destroyed by the enemy on the way to the planet, a prerequisite that the Malign might well have skipped.

Obviously we do not expect the Malign to restrain themselves when bombarding the planet, so the first thing we will discover is whether those elusive planetary forts exist. Let's suppose that they are destroyed. We know that the palace has weapons and the LD's are likely to be visible as targets, so the palace will have to be destroyed.

I do not expect the Queen will surrender; if still alive and on the verge of capture, then I expect she will abdicate.

So the question becomes, what happens when the fleet arrives? We will find out how useful a spider drive weapon is against the remaining weapons of Manticore. At most the Malign will capture the home planet without getting the rest of the empire.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by penny   » Tue Oct 24, 2023 12:02 pm

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Brigade XO wrote:1) The woman who was afraid of being killed at Darius. A Houdini relocation. She's a strategy and tactics person....she KNOWS about the spider drives, the GTorps and all sorts of other things and she was tasked to game out on the computer in that giant simulator how to DEFEND as system which is clearly a vast industrial operation and weapons producer but is specifically NOT ALLOWED to have ANY of the Alignments most advanced weapons and ships. NONE

She has all sorts of info the Alignment has on the GA so far and she is not just hamstrung with lack of spider drives and the GTorps, we don't see any Ghost type ships and nothing beyond the Hasta. Ok, I don't recall if she knew what Galton was able to do with Hosta.
WHY was she afraid? She had figured out that she was gaming this out and this was a major unknown system and they were going to get devastated regardless of what they did unless they at least had the existing depleted advance ships and weapons. And there was NO planning for getting anybody out. She (and she thinks about it we got to read it) is now afraid to even think about what she knows what all of this means because then she will become a security risk and she has seen (watched the other Houdini freighter suicide and the GAUL who was the guard on her ship was going to kill her and McBride.
I believe she is hoping that she doesn't just get killed when the project is finished because the Alignment is letting all sorts of desperate tactics get used in her scenarios and they won't allow her to use the only things that might give a chance that it won't be hammered to bits.


As far as the GA not doing anything about the AlignmentsOyster Bay weapons, they are, just they don't know enough about what they are facing. We listen to Hamish walkabout the new stations being built with either full time sidewalls or various shielding schemes. But nobody can yet detect either the wepons (primarily the GTorps ) or the ships that launched them. Hamish also brought up the idea that, as devastating as the attack at Grayson and Manticore was, it wasn't what it could have been........nothing else was hit....no other SEM systems, not the Peeps, not the SLl, not the Andies. So this was a sneak attack of an unknown entity that doesn't appear to have been ready. Sure, Manticore etc don't know what the Alignment's plans are, but SEM and Grayson really worried them so they struck with and where they could with probably as much as they were able to do at the time.

The other thing the GA -and now the SLN- along with Beowulf is doing is actively hunting for "the other guys". Stealthily hunting and working though leads to track down what they know exists even if it's not clear exactly what the other side wants.
There are other things that now look odd to the Ghost Hunters and the GA teams.....just like the Genetic Slave business didn't ultimately make any sense in terms of money, now that Manpower and some other pieces have been swept away, what is it that the "Alignment" actually wants. They don't actually seem to want to capture systems and build an empire because so much of what they were doing was ultimately just corrupting governments (or feeding their corruption and localized holding systems as petty dictators for life. This isn't politics and military aggression, it's .............unclear what the motivation is.


When the GA finds Darius? Probably the best thing would to slip a Nova Device into the star and sterilize the system but RFC doesn't do things like that so nobody in the Honorverse has anything like that. But after all that has gone on and now what happened at Galton with the fake surrender.....who is going to trust anything done by a group who outfits anybody they deal with with nanite suicide divics (a lot of these are equipped without their knowledge or consent) and routinely destroys almost anything to hide it's tracks.

No clue how this is going to work out.

Thanks for the reminder Brigade! I had completely forgotten about her.

It is odd that she was tasked to game out the defense of Galton, and not the Darius Admiralty. Especially if there is paranoia about her participation. I need to reread that passage.

Anyway, I recall wondering what her defense plan of Darius would be. We need more info on her. Where did she get her expertise? I really need a reread of that passage.

Hmmm... how 'bout now.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by tlb   » Tue Oct 24, 2023 12:39 pm

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tlb wrote:After To End in Fire, I no longer know what to expect; Darius could make it as difficult as many expect or Darius could go the way of the suggestion in TEiF and pretend to be peaceful upholders of the original Detweiler plan.

If it is the latter, then all evidence to the contrary has to be moved to a new spider hole or destroyed. Isn't that the reason that the woman who helped plan the defense of Galton is in danger of being terminated? I do not understand why she is in danger; if they are setting up another spider hole, then can't she be moved? What about everything that indicates that they have done bad stuff and all the people who are aware of those things?

But which ever way they go, it seems clear that there ought not to be new offensive actions until it is apparent that the Alamo Contingency plan has failed. Since they lose the ability to act in unsuspected ways, once everyone knows that Galton was not the ultimate bad actor.

This does not mean that they cannot stock up to take massive offensive action once the deception has clearly failed.

PS. At this point; the only reason that I expect the Grand Alliance to win, is that the author has been leading us on with the idea that Honor's side will emerge on top in the end.

penny wrote:Thanks for the reminder Brigade! I had completely forgotten about her.

It is odd that she was tasked to game out the defense of Galton, and not the Darius Admiralty. Especially if there is paranoia about her participation. I need to reread that passage.

Anyway, I recall wondering what her defense plan of Darius would be. We need more info on her. Where did she get her expertise? I really need a reread of that passage.

Hmmm... how 'bout now.

So you didn't read where I talked about her in this thread? I haven't tracked it down, but she is an expert on weapons and strategy. Around the passages where she and Zachariah McBryde are being evacuated from Mesa, I believe her status is explained. So if they plan to kill her after the expected result, then that is probably why they did not use the Admiralty. Killing all of them which would be much more noticeable.

Which goes back to I was saying about not understanding what might be going through the minds of the leadership at Darius. If they are going to be bad, then there is no reason to get rid of her.

However if they going to pretend to be good, then they need to move tons of stuff to some new location and why couldn't that include her? The only thing I can guess is that they will pretend to be good, but without a spider hole to put the bad things; which means that a lot of stuff needs to be secretly destroyed, including Gail.

According to the wiki, you can find about her in Cauldron of Ghosts.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by penny   » Tue Oct 24, 2023 12:52 pm

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kzt wrote:
ThinksMarkedly wrote:Indeed. And I don't think he will. I still think the time jump will be a decade on the outside, which will not allow the MAN to build more than 10 LDs (3 years per ship, 3 ships at a time).

Galton didn't build fast. It took them 200 T-years to reach the point they were at when they got discovered. They had a handful of SD(P)s out of their 48 wallers, 9 T-years after the Medusas got unveiled during Operation Buttercup. I don't recall modern LACs and CLACs at all.

The entire RMN was constructed and maintained by not more then 4 million people. About 7 million were killed when the blew up the platforms, but how many of them were kids, bartenders or ‘entertainers’?

So no, that is an absurdity slow build rate. If they have the crews to man them they can build at the rate the RMN built SDs.

And rember the Queen mentioning what she’d do if an invisible she suddenly appeared in orbit around Manticore and demanded surrender? What if a couple of 30mt LDs appeared in orbit around Manticore and demanded surrender?

What is the build rate of RMN SDs?
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by Jonathan_S   » Tue Oct 24, 2023 1:35 pm

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penny wrote:What is the build rate of RMN SDs?

The first few of a brand new design would take longer and, based on how they do in builder's and acceptance trials, they might need to go back into the yard for modifications -- and the rest of the tranche modified on the stocks. But once the design issues are worked out and the yards hit their stride IIRC it settles down to about 18 months for the RMN to build an SD. (Or a little slower in the dispersed yards)

But I'm not sure we ever knew how many SDs they could have under construction simultaneously -- so I don't think we have the data to convert that into a peak annual build rate of SDs.


Of course, right now, they're way below whatever that peak was as they're still rebuilding after Oyster Bay trashed all their shipyards.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Tue Oct 24, 2023 9:04 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:Indeed. And I don't think he will. I still think the time jump will be a decade on the outside, which will not allow the MAN to build more than 10 LDs (3 years per ship, 3 ships at a time).

Galton didn't build fast. It took them 200 T-years to reach the point they were at when they got discovered. They had a handful of SD(P)s out of their 48 wallers, 9 T-years after the Medusas got unveiled during Operation Buttercup. I don't recall modern LACs and CLACs at all.

kzt wrote:The entire RMN was constructed and maintained by not more then 4 million people. About 7 million were killed when the blew up the platforms, but how many of them were kids, bartenders or ‘entertainers’?

So no, that is an absurdity slow build rate. If they have the crews to man them they can build at the rate the RMN built SDs.


Why would the MAN have a larger proportion of people available? This is not Galton where the population are clearly slaves. They think they are free, so they will be doing jobs as bartenders and entertainers. There will be fewer jobs as interstellar consultants and finance brokers because there is no interstellar communication, but by the same token they don't have a huge merchant fleet to draw people from.

The economy may not make sense, but the rules apply to both. If a 3-billion-people system like Manticore can build 120 SDs in 40 years from scratch, then a 3-billion-people system like Darius can build them in roughly the same time.

But Darius isn't building SDs. They're building even bigger ships, barely out of prototype phase. Any know-how imported from Galton wouldn't be directly applicable, not to mention the actual transfer of skilled people between the two systems would be extremely limited. We should be comparing those to the RMN's Samothrace build times instead. It was 30 years between those and the next class and only 7 were built.

So I think I am being generous when I say an average of 1 per year.
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