Attacking Darius:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:And yet, this probe is the only thing that managed to make any damage to the Grand Fleet for the next two weeks of battle, until the surrender.

penny wrote:That isn't true. The sucker punch destroyed more ships. The MA tricked the GA into coming closer.

tlb wrote:On the contrary, ThinksMarkedly's point is strictly true; since the sucker punch occurred AFTER the surrender.

Right, I was very strict in what I wrote because I didn't want to talk about the sucker punch because I (and many others) have problems with it. There's no reason it should have worked and it couldn't have worked at all given what was described in the text. The math doesn't work out because Honor parked the GF one full light-minute away from the habitats, so the missiles couldn't have closed that quickly that the ships wouldn't have cleared for action. The ships didn't strike wedges.

That was a narrative plot device that was meant to make us think Honor may commit an atrocity, which we knew she wouldn't. She didn't in the Battle of Sol, when she thought Hamish was dead and this was soon after the Beowulf Atrocity. So I don't know why the authors thought we would think she would.

And in any case, I was also specific about it being during the battle itself. After you've surrendered, you've surrendered and nothing is getting out of the system. You've lost. So it's not a solution for defending Darius.

I repeat: there is no strategy that can successfully defend Darius, like there was none for Galton or, for that matter, for Sol. There's only making the cost high. The SLN and Kingsford wisely did not. Galton knew they couldn't win so they set out to make the cost high and they nearly didn't achieve anything, aside from those two ship kills early in the fight. I bet the same thinking minds that came up with the defence of Galton have run the same simulations for Darius and have still come up empty.

No, the MAlign victory does not come through a successful defence of Darius. They have to achieve victory before it is discovered. So it may come to pass that, knowing this, they won't invest in heavy defences in the first place, because that at least has the advantage of pretending they weren't the "Malignant Alignment" in the first place.

I strongly disagree. If the same the arrogant, overconfident fleet at Galton shows up at Darius they will be lucky to get back enough ships to be able to comprehend the attack the destroyed the fleet.

Eventually, Darius would lose. But it will be horrifically expensive and involve swamping Darius with ships and launching landing operations before they have near space secured.

But honestly, entire GA has not secured their rear area against a repeat strike. The question is has the location of bolt-hole leaked yet?

penny wrote:At any rate, if storyline wasn't misleading me that pulling off a complex microjump is a factor of ones astrogator, like Theophile Kgari, then shouldn't the MA - being the Alphas that they are - be able to handle complex microjumps with ease?

Even with the best navigator in the universe there’s a lot of mechanically induced uncertainties in a micro jump. It’s never going to be pinpoint accurate.

Good enough for jumping into MDM range, but trying for anything more accurate is just playing the lottery. And worse those uncertainties also apply between each ship in the same formation; so a fleet attempting a micro jump is likely to find a significant percentage of its ships scattered beyond mutual missile defense range of each other.

Remember that when the Peep fleet raided Basilisk Station the defensive wallers stationed out by the terminus weren’t willing to risk the dispersion they suffer if they hyper jumped after the Peep fleet; despite the significant time saving is relieving Basilisk had the jumped. Instead they charged the lightminutes towards them in normal space.

Of course all this leaves out the main reason micro jumping isn’t a common tactic — most things you want to fight over, and most fights for them, occur well within the hyper limit. No jumping, micro or otherwise, possible

kzt wrote:I strongly disagree. If the same the arrogant, overconfident fleet at Galton shows up at Darius they will be lucky to get back enough ships to be able to comprehend the attack the destroyed the fleet.

I know you think this and you know I disagree. I frankly think something got lost in the storytelling. I don't see how a Grand Fleet only one year after the Battle of Sol and three from the Battle of Manticore would have lost that much institutional knowledge.

Either way, it doesn't matter, because as you said:

Eventually, Darius would lose.

Quite. And I think the MAN knows this too. Darius only defence so far is that it can't be found, even if the Felix Junction is blockaded. So investing in fixed and mobile defences to defend against hundreds of SD(P)s may not be in their priority list either.

But it will be horrifically expensive and involve swamping Darius with ships and launching landing operations before they have near space secured.

Wait, what? Why would they need to land on Darius Gamma at all, much less before securing near space? The only landing force I could see are special commandos to try and go for a decapitation strike and take out the Inner Onion. But that would imply knowing just who those leaders are and I don't see any way this information will leak easily -- all who know the identities of the Detweilers are also carrying suicide nanites and will take their own lives.

Unless the Darius Gamma population begins a revolt and while the GF is in the system, forcing the GF's hands to land in support of those. I don't see much chance of that right now. A lot would need to change in the Darius population for this to happen. Given who those leaders are and knowing what was happening on Mesa, I don't think they made the same mistake twice of having a seccy disgruntled population.

But honestly, entire GA has not secured their rear area against a repeat strike. The question is has the location of bolt-hole leaked yet?

No, at least not as far as the end of the last book.

And why do you think they have not secured against a repeat strike? Lack of evidence is not evidence of lack, so has there been any explicit saying that they don't think such an attack can happen again? Or have they described any strategies we know won't suffice?

Though this latter case doesn't apply to what you're claiming, because trying your best and not knowing to defend against the unknown are not the same as intentionally not security their rear areas. So your claim is that they don't think there's any threat and I don't think the text supports your claim.

The RMN isn’t responding to long range hyper contacts with 6 CLACs and two batrons. They don’t have similar forces waiting outside the hyperlimit to jump on any near contacts.. How many of their limited CLAC fleet is providing a CAP to cover the construction zone?

IOW, they are not taking it seriously

You can’t count on detecting the attack in time to deal with it if you don’t have a solid clue early on that you are actually under attack.

kzt wrote:I strongly disagree. If the same the arrogant, overconfident fleet at Galton shows up at Darius they will be lucky to get back enough ships to be able to comprehend the attack the destroyed the fleet.

Eventually, Darius would lose. But it will be horrifically expensive and involve swamping Darius with ships and launching landing operations before they have near space secured.

But honestly, entire GA has not secured their rear area against a repeat strike. The question is has the location of bolt-hole leaked yet?

I certainly agree. Eventually Darius will lose.

This thread is over 3-yrs old and it was never meant to imply that Darius can withstand an assault by the GA. The combined forces of the GA? Of course not!

My intent is to point out that attacking Darius is not going to be a piece of cake, like everyone was implying three years ago. Many people continue to imply it now. Darius will not be business as usual. Heck, Galton already proved that, by forcing the Salamander to adopt a tactic that she despises.

So, I agree with kzt, if the GA doesn't change some of their tactics and join the woke movement that's trending now, there will be hell to pay. My only desire in this thread is to point out that the butcher's bill for Darius will be high. Especially if GA colliers are mainly carrying arrogance and SLN hubris.

Something else to consider is that a good defense is to employ a good offense. If Darius strikes the GA Home systems first with a surprise strike and decimate infrastructure and catch fleets and warships w/o wedges... and if they obtain the location of - and successfully attack - Bolthole as well, then there will be a limited amount of warships available to attack Darius.

That may force the SL into the fight, but Darius would much rather face SLN hardware.

I am also at a loss as to why a lot of you expect the MAN's hardware to remain the same, stagnant, without change. Why do some of you fail to expect the huge g-torps utilized in the Yawata Strike to change? I have always expected those missiles to eventually become tube launched by the LDs. IOW, MA tech will go through different iterations as GA tech has always done. And of course, breaking the secret of the mini powerplant will open that door.

IINM, Galton had over 20 forts. Only three of them were huge, but that is Galton. At any rate, Galton represented a lot of industrial capacity that many of you denied could exist for Darius. And they were handicapped. Do you really think the father of the operation is a pansy?

Well, if you do, that is the kind of thinking that will garner a huge butcher's bill.



very late edit: grammar police stopped by.

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:

kzt wrote:I strongly disagree. If the same the arrogant, overconfident fleet at Galton shows up at Darius they will be lucky to get back enough ships to be able to comprehend the attack the destroyed the fleet.

I know you think this and you know I disagree. I frankly think something got lost in the storytelling. I don't see how a Grand Fleet only one year after the Battle of Sol and three from the Battle of Manticore would have lost that much institutional knowledge.

Either way, it doesn't matter, because as you said:

Eventually, Darius would lose.

You'll have to elaborate on the bit about the lost institutional knowledge for my benefit. I will respond to what I think you mean.

I agree with kzt, the GA is not taking the threat seriously. Let me rephrase that, the GA knows the threat is serious, they just don't know HOW serious. I don't think they have lost any institutional knowledge, rather than being out of their element battling an unseen enemy with unseen tech with a complete lack of morals, scruples and values and not knowing where to find them. The GA is as off balance and out of their element with the MA as Honor was with Pavel Young.

Plus, I don't even think Honor is aware of just how much the GA suffers from SLN hubris.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:Quite. And I think the MAN knows this too. Darius only defence so far is that it can't be found, even if the Felix Junction is blockaded. So investing in fixed and mobile defences to defend against hundreds of SD(P)s may not be in their priority list either.

That doesn't make any sense to me. No navy fails to protect their home. And there is no way an arrogant entity like the MA will depend on lying to their enemies in the end.

But Again, a good defense is a good offense, and Darius will want to defend the system as long as possible until their offensive operations bear fruit. It doesn't matter if the GA can defeat Darius if Darius destroys the MBS, Noveau Paris and destroys Bolthole.

And there is no way the MA is not aware of this fact ...

Destroy a CLAC and orphan its LACs.

Destroy a planet and orphan its navy.

The MA may not be able to win, but they damn well may be able to force a détente.

After To End in Fire, I no longer know what to expect; Darius could make it as difficult as many expect or Darius could go the way of the suggestion in TEiF and pretend to be peaceful upholders of the original Detweiler plan.

If it is the latter, then all evidence to the contrary has to be moved to a new spider hole or destroyed. Isn't that the reason that the woman who helped plan the defense of Galton is in danger of being terminated? I do not understand why she is in danger; if they are setting up another spider hole, then can't she be moved? What about everything that indicates that they have done bad stuff and all the people who are aware of those things?

But which ever way they go, it seems clear that there ought not to be new offensive actions until it is apparent that the Alamo Contingency plan has failed. Since they lose the ability to act in unsuspected ways, once everyone knows that Galton was not the ultimate bad actor.

This does not mean that they cannot stock up to take massive offensive action once the deception has clearly failed.

PS. At this point; the only reason that I expect the Grand Alliance to win, is that the author has been leading us on with the idea that Honor's side will emerge on top in the end.

penny wrote:I am also at a loss as to why a lot of you expect the MAN's hardware to remain the same, stagnant, without change. Why do some of you fail to expect the huge g-torps utilized in the Yawata Strike to remain the same? I always expected those missiles to eventually become tube launched by the LDs.

I expect it will change, and we've already seen it change in some ways. But spider torp size isn't one of their areas I'm expecting major improvements in.

We're told their size is a basic limitation of their drive system. Okay, the spider projectors might shrink some which would really help -- but we're told that reducing the number of them would reduce it's already almost unacceptably slow acceleration.
Access to microfusion power plants could shrink the missile body some, as their power consumption is presumably well beyond the breakeven point between capacitors and microfusion - but the drive is the primary driver of their bulk.

Now they are going to be tube launched by the LDs - but, again, we're told that's because the LDs are being built with massive oversized tubes able to handle the current spider torps.

Also, how much it'll change is very much a factor of how much timeline there is left in the story. Yes, the RMN has had massive tech improvements across the series - but they're the result of 20-odd years of development before the start of the series and another 20+ years of elapsed time within the series. That give time to develop, deploy, and refine, new tech.
If the showdown with Darius isn't for another 20+ years then yes I'd expect significant changes to the MAlign tech -- if somehow its location is found the month after Galton is taken down I don't expect the MAlign to have had time to make significant changes in reaction; so we'd only be seeing whatever tech they already had to hand. And while there are almost certainly surprises in their - I'd bet against most of those surprising being major improvements in tech we've already seen.

penny wrote:I always expected those missiles to eventually become tube launched by the LDs.

Jonathan_S wrote:Now they are going to be tube launched by the LDs - but, again, we're told that's because the LDs are being built with massive oversized tubes able to handle the current spider torps.

As Jonathan_S said: we all expect that, because the author said so when the LD's, the graser torpedoes and the Shark-class ships were first introduced.

PS: As to "Destroy a planet and orphan its navy", that is only true for a one planet polity (provided that includes destroying all the orbitals also). But Manticore, for example, is about 14 planets with the inclusion of the Talbott Quarter and many more with Silesia.