Oh, what the heck . . .

Brigade XO wrote:Messy, very messy.

It's really not hard to convince an insurance company not to pay out an outrageous amount of money. I'm sure it will all be settled in court. Probably within 20 or 30 years.

kzt wrote:They lost a hugely expensive shipyard.

[...]

And they need to rebuild that shipyard.

They almost certainly will rebuild that shipyard because Graysons are Graysons. But they already have a much larger and more powerful fleet than any other single-system polity in the Honorverse, and will for years (also larger and more powerful than all but a handful of multi-system polities -- and at least one of the fleets that is larger is not more powerful). Masada is no longer anything remotely resembling a threat to the GSN. Haven is now allied with Manticore and Grayson. Unless Manticore is being governed by idiots (which has happened, but is not likely), Grayson does not need a massive home-grown shipyard complex anymore.

So Himself chimed in (thank you sir) some of what you told us was only able to be partially pulled out of the books, only a very small part mentioned about beowulf producing missles but i don't think you really told us how fast they were gonna get upto serious production (could be wrong but i don't think so)

drothgery wrote:

kzt wrote:They lost a hugely expensive shipyard.

[...]

And they need to rebuild that shipyard.

They almost certainly will rebuild that shipyard because Graysons are Graysons. But they already have a much larger and more powerful fleet than any other single-system polity in the Honorverse, and will for years (also larger and more powerful than all but a handful of multi-system polities -- and at least one of the fleets that is larger is not more powerful). Masada is no longer anything remotely resembling a threat to the GSN. Haven is now allied with Manticore and Grayson. Unless Manticore is being governed by idiots (which has happened, but is not likely), Grayson does not need a massive home-grown shipyard complex anymore.

Not Grayson, what's his name, the guy who had a shipyard blown up in both Grayson and Gryphon, as well as having a lot of idle ships and a whole lot of delivery bonds he will have to forfeit.

Btw, the total US federal debt is about 20 trillion, and total tax revenue (all levels) was about 6 trillion. Would you suspect any serious questions to be raised by investors if tomorrow the US government decided to put on the market 200 trillion in bonds? That about 11 years of US GDP.

drothgery wrote:

kzt wrote:They lost a hugely expensive shipyard.

[...]

And they need to rebuild that shipyard.

They almost certainly will rebuild that shipyard because Graysons are Graysons. But they already have a much larger and more powerful fleet than any other single-system polity in the Honorverse, and will for years (also larger and more powerful than all but a handful of multi-system polities -- and at least one of the fleets that is larger is not more powerful). Masada is no longer anything remotely resembling a threat to the GSN. Haven is now allied with Manticore and Grayson. Unless Manticore is being governed by idiots (which has happened, but is not likely), Grayson does not need a massive home-grown shipyard complex anymore.

Unfortunately, Grayson still requires a major fleet base to service it's fleet, so it will need to replace at least a portion of the complex. It also needs to replace it's 1st war subwallers with modern designs. Beyond that, Grayson will still require facitities to build missiles and drones, as well as retaining construction capability to replace the current fleet as it ages or becomes obsolete.

So, going forward, they won't require a yard capable of 1 to 3 new wallers a month, but they do have the need for a large portion of what they had.

Claus Hauptman and his companies face all sorts of problems. There are all the penalties and costs related to non-performance on deliveries due to ships being called back to Manticore under Lacoon I. There is both a lock of cargo availability due to loss of manufacturing capasity for Manticore and lack of access to the markets and trade routes in or through the SL and there is the massivly more competition for what shipping contracts that are still available as all of that other Manticorian flagged merchant shipping is now also had to come back to Manticore and look for new routes and customers.

And, Haupman has to deal with the loss/replacement of the manufacturing it did in Manticore and Grayson, a massive amount of which was military and naval ship construction/maintenance related. They also have to replace the workforce.

Haupman may or may not have a large self-insurance load. The Manticorian Government probably will waive a lot of the penalties for late/non delivery of ships under construction lost in Oyster Bay as well as provide reasonable terms supporting recovery. That Haupman has other investments (in manufacturing, shipbuilding, repair yard, freight brokering, financial operations and a host of other things) insn't so much how much there is and how can it now feed back into recovery but where it is and what is it worth & how can it be brought to use on the present problems.

The entire trade structure of the major players has been disrupted and will have to be rebuilt while still dealing with a shooting war between the GA and the SL plus the MAlignment. At this point you might see things such as companies from that Aldermani Empire buying Manticorian flagged merchant ships at steep discounts and putting them into the SL trade using the MWH as the conduit to continue to move products to and from their Empire and Silesia to the SL. It could also just be the setting up of various shell commpaies under Aldernami law and running them under the Aldermani flag with the actual ownershp buffered and hidden such that the SL has no legal claim to sieze them- not that the SL seems to have much problem doing things that are not legal under it's own laws.
That and similar deals with Matapan and Asguard would provide at least a fig leaf level of protection for the ships themselves though the situation with Manticorian citizens as crew could be dangerous.

Andermani flagged Manty vessels would indeed ease the dislocation caused by Lacoon II. The non-performance clauses would likely be ruled non-enforceable against Solly firms, with a suggestion that they collect damages from the Solarian League government. They started this after all, let them pay for it.

I doubt the vessels will be sold outright. More likely they will be leased on a profit sharing basis with flexible terms and level of commitment. All this starts when hostilities begin settling down. That's not likely to happen within the next 2-3 years. Rather, if it happens sooner, the IAN will need to send escorts. If they don't, Solly polities may confiscate those ships to ease their cargo carrying needs.

One of the things the RMN will need immediately is troop ships. They have a million troops available for deployment in Talbot and little capacity to move them. Many of those small ship owners may well find leasing their ships to the Navy as auxiliaries to be a good idea until things settle down or more lucrative opportunities reveal themselves.

My thought is the tumult caused by Operation Janus only started the process of tossing out OFS. There are still nations that would press for ousting OFS if they knew the SEM is there to back their efforts. Those second echelon revolutions will need much more help and a stronger military presence to manage in a more peaceful fashion. The need for troops and supplies will be significant.

PeterZ wrote:Andermani flagged Manty vessels would indeed ease the dislocation caused by Lacoon II. The non-performance clauses would likely be ruled non-enforceable against Solly firms, with a suggestion that they collect damages from the Solarian League government. They started this after all, let them pay for it.

It's actually a bond. Which is forfeit if you don't deliver. So the first thing you need to do to reestablish your operations is post another billion credit bond, in cash.

PeterZ wrote:One of the things the RMN will need immediately is troop ships. They have a million troops available for deployment in Talbot and little capacity to move them. Many of those small ship owners may well find leasing their ships to the Navy as auxiliaries to be a good idea until things settle down or more lucrative opportunities reveal themselves.

My thought is the tumult caused by Operation Janus only started the process of tossing out OFS. There are still nations that would press for ousting OFS if they knew the SEM is there to back their efforts. Those second echelon revolutions will need much more help and a stronger military presence to manage in a more peaceful fashion. The need for troops and supplies will be significant.

Honorverse freighters are pretty poor choices for troop transport. They have something like 24 million cubic meters of empty cargo space. Empty, as in the Grand Canyon is empty, and empty in that it's vacuum. And it's also zero g. So you'd need to build a habitat inside the vast empty cargo bay. It's fine to transport containerized gear, but not the troops.

kzt wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Andermani flagged Manty vessels would indeed ease the dislocation caused by Lacoon II. The non-performance clauses would likely be ruled non-enforceable against Solly firms, with a suggestion that they collect damages from the Solarian League government. They started this after all, let them pay for it.

It's actually a bond. Which is forfeit if you don't deliver. So the first thing you need to do to reestablish your operations is post another billion credit bond, in cash.

Who holds the bond? If it is in escrow held at some trustworthy polity like say....Beowulf, then those funds are not necessarily lost. Certainly tied up. As for resuming business, the Andermani firms are not the same as those that did not perform.

I would add that even the Bonding procedures will be disrupted moving forward. Who holds the Bond? An agent tied to the shipper? The carrier? The receiver? An entity all three agree upon? Who might that be, now that even such fundamental relationships are made so uncertain? These sorts of risk sharing decisions have become completely unsettled now. That means the risk premium has increased enormously for any cargo crossing into and out of the Grand Alliance's jurisdiction.