The Problem with Haven

Roguevictory wrote:Are you talking about the upcoming Manticore Ascendant Travis Long series, or another new spin off series?

That's the one I was talking about, yeah. I got the eARC, thank you...

hanuman wrote:

Roguevictory wrote:Are you talking about the upcoming Manticore Ascendant Travis Long series, or another new spin off series?

That's the one I was talking about, yeah. I got the eARC, thank you...

Ahh I wasn't sure if another new one was coming that I hadn't heard about yet. Still the new series looks like it will be a lot of fun.

Why do Duckks have webbed feet?

To stamp out flame wars.

Why do Namelessfly's have flat feet?

hanuman wrote:

Imaginos1892 wrote:The Hammer That Smashes Suns? (or, The Duckk Hammer That Smashes Suns)

[running for the exit]
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Life without cats is just too boring.

The Death Quack? Like in the Deathray?

Hold on, I'm coming too...

namelessfly wrote:Why do Duckks have flat feet?

To stamp out flame wars.

Why do Namelessfly's have flat feet?

His feet gets stamped on too often.

hanuman wrote:

Imaginos1892 wrote:The Hammer That Smashes Suns? (or, The Duckk Hammer That Smashes Suns)

[running for the exit]
-------------------
Life without cats is just too boring.

The Death Quack? Like in the Deathray?

Hold on, I'm coming too...

I was thinking more along the lines of the Banhammer™, which, as most people who've been on forums long enough know, is a pretty powerful weapon (although some who are vanquished with it seem to be vampires and don't really die - they just come back under another name).

Quotes reordered to avoid embedded quotes limit.

runsforcelery wrote:
(d) Although Eloise was aware that Shannon Foraker and Bolthole were producing an entirely new fleet which was much closer to the Royal Manticoran Navy in combat capability, she was also aware through most of the negotiating period that Manticore possessed the technological upper hand and that the completion of ships already under construction at places like Grendelsbane could quickly counterbalance much of the numerical superiority the RHN was building up at Bolthole. In other words, whatever High Ridge and Janacek had done to the Navy, the RMN remained a technologically superior threat with the capacity to rebound rapidly from its numerical inferiority once it realized that inferiority existed.

Amaroq wrote:I hadn't considered the Grendelsbane construction when determining Manticore's striking capability. How close to actual deployment were those ships?

hanuman wrote:I think some of them were mere weeks away from being ready for their test runs.

Actually the ships that construction was suspended on at Grendelsbane were much farther from completion when construction was suspended. (The ships that construction was suspended on in the Manticore Binary System were completed first, according to a post by runsforcelery, because they were immediately available for restarting construction on. And any money spent on those ships instead of the ones at Grendelsbane would immediately go back into Manticore's economy.)

Janacek speaking at a meeting of the High Ridge Government:

War of Honor, Chapter 30 wrote:"Unless the actual situation is much worse than anything Admiral Jurgensen has so far been able to determine suggests, I think we can reasonably reject the most panicky demands. At the very least, however, we're going to have to announce that we're resuming construction on at least some of the incomplete SD(P)s and CLACs. After all, a large part of our current naval spending priorities was based on the fact that those ships are there, waiting to be finished and commissioned if circumstances warranted it. In fact, I think we'll want to reemphasize that point in order to quell any unjustified panic."
And demonstrate in the process that our policies were sound all along, he did not add aloud.
"Even assuming that Theisman's numbers are accurate, simply completing the ships already under construction will more than offset them." He continued, then snorted harshly. "For that matter, just completing the ships under construction at Grendelsbane would match every modern ship of the wall Theisman says they've built!"
His colleagues relaxed visibly at his assurance. He was relieved to see it, but he was also too experienced a politician not to cover his back.
"At the same time," he cautioned, "there's going to be a window between the time when we authorize resumption of construction and the time the ships are actually completed. I haven't got detailed projections at this point, but the rough estimate from BuShips is that it will take at least six T-months, more probably eight, to reactivate the building slips and assemble the workforce required. In addition, Mr. Houseman, Admiral Draskovic, and I are going to have to go over the manpower numbers very carefully, since it won't do us any good to build ships we don't have the personnel to crew."
"Just how wide is this 'window' of yours likely to be, Edward?" Descroix asked.
"It's not my window," Janacek replied. "It's a simple physical limitation we're going to have to live with." He held her eyes levelly for a second or two, then shrugged. "As I say, it will take around six T-months to get construction back underway. After that, we can assume between another six months and a year to complete each existing hull, depending on how advanced its construction was before we halted it. So the window will be from twelve to eighteen T-months wide."
There was a sudden, profound silence in the conference room as all of them were brought face to face with the unpalatable numbers. Janacek was hardly surprised, although nothing he'd said should have come as a shock to them. The time lag was an inevitable consequence of their decision to suspend construction in the first place, and he and Houseman had both warned the others about it. They hadn't exactly dwelt on it, of course, but they had mentioned it. It was right there, in black and white, in their initial budgetary analysis, which at least meant no one who felt surprised now could blame them for it.

Italics are the author's, boldface and underlined text is my emphasis.

When Haven finally went ahead with Thunderbolt (much later, after Janacek had resumed construction) the ships at Grendelsbane were only a couple of weeks away from trials.

White Haven speaking to Admiral MacDonnell of the GSN at Trevor's Star:

War of Honor, Chapter 57 wrote:"Actually," he went on, "the best-case scenario would be for Theisman to realize that you've reinforced us here before he kicks off any attack. The realization that the GSN is prepared to reinforce us this promptly, despite any . . . difficulties you may be experiencing working with our present deplorable Prime Minister, would almost have to give him pause. He'd also have to rethink any ops plan he'd already drawn up on the assumption that you wouldn't be. And if we can win that jackass Janacek just another four or five months, the ships he's finally resumed construction on will begin to come into commission in something like genuinely useful numbers. Especially the ones in the Grendelsbane shadow yards. They were further along in construction when they were suspended, and the first of them will be ready for acceptance trials in just a couple of weeks."

Italics are the author's, boldface is my emphasis.

DarkEnigma wrote:

n7axw wrote:And right in the middle of this sits Manticore, sitting on its conquered systems and refusing to negotiate a peace treaty. Further, as far as Eloise could see at the time, falsifying the diplomatic correspondence, which so far as she could see proved that Manticore had no intention of negotiating in good faith or ever relinquishing systems which Haven believed were rightly a part of the Republic. Any head of state in Prichard's situation who had military options available would be looking to them. And Prichard did. Theisman and Foraker had given them to her.

So what? Haven lost their systems in fair combat. Manticore was under no obligation to return any territory it won to Haven. Do you think Haven ever returned its conquests back to their own governments? It is all well and good for Pritchart to review her military options, but is it honorable to actually use the military option when Manticore was not an imminent threat?

Yes, as a matter of fact, Haven DID return it's own conquests back to their own governments if they voted to do so. Pritchart set up elections on all of the systems under their control, and allowed any that voted to leave the newly re-established Republic of Haven to become independent. And Pritchart was not demanding that Manticore turn it's conquests over to Haven; Pritchart was demanding that Manticore allow it's conquests to have exactly the same vote on whether to be part of the Republic of Haven that Haven's other systems already had been given.

SWM wrote:Yes, as a matter of fact, Haven DID return it's own conquests back to their own governments if they voted to do so. Pritchart set up elections on all of the systems under their control, and allowed any that voted to leave the newly re-established Republic of Haven to become independent. And Pritchart was not demanding that Manticore turn it's conquests over to Haven; Pritchart was demanding that Manticore allow it's conquests to have exactly the same vote on whether to be part of the Republic of Haven that Haven's other systems already had been given.

And refusing that, seriously bad for public relations of Manticore so to speak...

runsforcelery wrote:I haven’t previously gotten involved in the debate over whether or not Elizabeth should trust the Republic of Haven and of whether or not the Republic of Haven is worthy of her trust for a lot of reasons, including the fact that as the author I have control of what the various actors do. That means I can “demonstrate” whatever I want to demonstrate, which gives me what I suppose some people would consider an unfair advantage.

Yes, getting into a debate with the series own creator is a bit like bringing a vibroblade to a pulser fight but honor demands that I at least make an attempt.

runsforcelery wrote:However, I’d like to point out a couple of things about Eloise Pritchart and the post-Saint-Just Republic of Haven.

(1) The current government/constitution of Haven was restored after years of warfare against the Star Kingdom and after several years of very bloody civil war against StateSec warlords. That tends to shape the way the citizens of the Republic regard the value of that constitution and that form of government. Moreover, I should also point out that the “StateSec warlords” in question were also the champions of the Committee of Public Safety and therefore were integrally tied in fact (and in the minds of the voting public) to Pierre and his regime. The majority of people who would have supported Pierre initially had already disappeared into the dustbin of history; the ones who were left after his own death and Thomas Theisman’s coup have been either eradicated/thoroughly discredited in the post-coup civil war.

I'll stipulate that Theisman was able to thoroughly clean house and remove all vestiges of the CPS. I'll also stipulate that the citizens of Haven are genuinely invested in their government this time around and are making every effort to help it work (you are in far better position than I to judge public sentiment after all). I would only point out, once again, that both the Legislaturalists and the CPS had recently (for prolong anyway) met their demises at the point of a gun. Any Manticoran analyst capable of wiping the drool off his chin is going to take note of that fact and be cautious of placing any long term bets on the fragile new Republic's longevity. A phased plan in which Haven meets some metrics of success before Manticore hands over the crown jewels seems appropriate here.

runsforcelery wrote:(2) SNIP

Stipulate to all points as this also has to do with public sentiment.

runsforcelery wrote:[b](3) In regard to whether or not the restored Republic under Eloise Pritchart was acting “honorably” before the resumption of hostilities and in the decision to resume hostilities itself, I would make the following points.

(a) The restored Republic had committed to allowing any star system which wished to leave the Republic to do so, and had in fact honored that pledge. They weren’t just talking the talk in this case, they were actually walking the walk, and they’d demonstrated that they were.

(b) The Pritchart Administration had been negotiating in complete good faith in its attempts to secure an actual formal treaty of peace which would officially end hostilities. As far as Pritchart was concerned, the only really “core terms” were the status of the populated once-Havenite star systems still occupied by the Manticoran Alliance. In effect, she was insisting that those populations be allowed to choose their own futures, just as she had allowed the systems which wanted to leave the Republic to do so. This happened to be something that was a serious matter of principle for both her and Thomas Theisman.

Such a matter of principle that she was willing to plunge two star nations back into war and kill hundreds of thousands of people to secure it? This, after all, is the crux of the entire matter: did Pritchart have an honorable justification to go to war.

I'll stipulate that Haven was genuinely giving stars systems they had previously taken over the choice to leave. I'll also stipulate that Haven (and Manticore) had every legal right to resume hostilities at any time, and that High Ridge was purposefully using that nominal state of war for callous political ends. However, Pritchart had to know that this situation could not last forever. At some point, High Ridge would have to hold elections and have to end the pretenses with which he was stalling negotiations.

My question is, what was so pressing about getting these systems back that Prichart had to take such an aggressive posture such as having Tom Theisman wave a huge stick under Manticore's nose (and forcing them to respond accordingly)?

Was Manticore somehow abusing their captured systems? Would it have made any difference to Haven's captured systems if Eloise had adopted a "wait and see" approach until Manticore came to its senses?

Also, as you have stated yourself, Pritchart was open to negotiating which systems were returned to Haven at all (she was entirely willing to give up on Trevor's Star for example). Which begs the question, if she held it as an article of faith that Haven's former systems deserved self-determination, why she be willing to parcel them out in penny-packets over the negotiating table ?

Finally, as I recall, it was Arnold Giancola's plan to diffuse tensions between Manticore and Haven and thus be the hero, but even he miscalculated Pritchart's bloody-mindedness. Is it at all possible that Prichart's decision to thump her chest and aggressively press Manticore over these systems was born of something less-than-honorable (such as pride, greed, or simple pique)?

When a honorable leader decides to go to war it should be because they have no other choice, but I still fail to see how Haven had no choice but to go to war.

For the sake of time, I will stipulate to the rest of your points and concede that, once active hostilities resumed, Haven acted honorably. However, I wonder if you would be willing to answer a question that has been nagging me since it doesn't seem to jibe with my assessment of Elizabeth's character: Why did Elizabeth not push for total victory during Buttercup or after the Battle of Manticore?

P.S. Many people have up the fact that Elizabeth had Treecat lie detectors. This is true, however a Treecat can only tell you if a particular person is being truthful at this particular moment. They cannot vouch for that persons future actions especially if that person is only one part of a much larger polity.

Such a matter of principle that she was willing to plunge two star nations back into war

BACK into war? Manticore was the side that continually REFUSED to END it.

This, after all, is the crux of the entire matter: did Pritchart have an honorable justification to go to war.

RFC already answered that. Like what someone else effectively said, well duh...

At some point, High Ridge would have to hold elections and have to end the pretenses with which he was stalling negotiations.

Why? What´s to say that government isn´t capable of rigging the next election?
You´re making up excuses that doesn´t hold even a moment of scrutiny.

My question is, what was so pressing about getting these systems back that Prichart had to take such an aggressive posture such as having Tom Theisman wave a huge stick under Manticore's nose (and forcing them to respond accordingly)?

The fact that Manticore was essentially waving a nuclearpowered chainsaw under Haven´s nose?

Was Manticore somehow abusing their captured systems?

Irrelevant. They were occupying them as part of an ongoing WAR.

Finally, as I recall, it was Arnold Giancola's plan to diffuse tensions between Manticore and Haven and thus be the hero, but even he miscalculated Pritchart's bloody-mindedness.

What "bloody-mindedness" would that be? Again, you´re making up excuses for one side and blaming the other for everything and taxes.
You´re even mudslinging against characters, even though we are shown a lot of HOW THEY ACTUALLY THINK, in the books.

P.S. Many people have up the fact that Elizabeth had Treecat lie detectors. This is true, however a Treecat can only tell you if a particular person is being truthful at this particular moment. They cannot vouch for that persons future actions especially if that person is only one part of a much larger polity.

And you don´t see what that means...