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Attacking Darius:

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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by Jonathan_S   » Fri Oct 20, 2023 9:57 am

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tlb wrote:
Jonathan_S wrote:But the question is what standard are they holding themselves to - and how high to they assess the risk of a stray missile or large scale debris?

Before the fall of the League the standard most governments seemed to hold their navies to is they shall undertake no action that could give OFS or the League any possible excuse to intervene against them under even the most wildly broad and expansive interpretation of the Edict.

Basically to assume the League is just itching for any excuse to take over -- and avoid any risk of giving them that excuse.

That's far more restrictive than just honoring the letter, or even the spirit, or the Edict.


Under the letter, and even the spirit, of the Edict using civilian populations in an attempt to provide human shields around military forces forfeits those civilian's protection under the Edict -- at least as far as collateral damage resulting from WMD attacks on those military forces. So, putting forts in low orbit around a planet in the hope of discouraging missiles from firing at them just means that the attacking force is no longer liable for collateral damage that might result from targeting and engaging those forts.

Now the GA might well hold themselves to an even higher standard of minimizing collateral civilian casualties. Though given the accuracy and range of Apollo they might also be able to engage low orbit forts with almost no concern about a stray missile hitting the planet (though debris from damaged forts might still be a concern)

I am willing to accept this, but you seemed to be saying earlier that there no longer was a moral or legal standard the GA needed to apply; just a tactical standard, since the Malign was the enemy and the Edict was no longer enforced. I do not expect the Grand Alliance to only maintain minimum standards.

There is still a problem with using Apollo to attack low level forts; it is best for a single ship to only attack those forts that are seen to the side of the planet (as opposed to those where the planet is seen behind the fort), because then the missile flight and the laser head do not have the planet as a back stop. Actually the ideal weapon to attack the forts is to have the GA make their own version of the graser torpedo; the recon drone body can get close and the micro fusion reactor can power multiple shots for the biggest graser that can be mounted.

I didn't intend to imply that Manticore or the Grand Alliance would have no moral or legal restrictions against causing mass civilian death.

Merely that fear of even the slightest risk of inadvertently causing that might not allow their enemies to protect their defenses using the civilan population as human shields. I'd still expect the GA's military codes of justice and rules of engagement to require them to do whatever possible to reasonably reduce the chance of mass civilian collateral damage -- just maybe not to the point of refusing to engage defenses hiding behind civilians. But they'd still pick attack methods that would try to minimize casualties to the civilians despite the fact that using them as human shields removed much of their protections.


However I was also assuming that Apollo is long enough ranged and accurate enough that launches against forts could fly a 'dogleg' course so that, even if the fort was in-line between the launching ship and the planet, the missiles' terminal approach vectors would be angled clear of the planet.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by penny   » Fri Oct 20, 2023 11:35 am

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tlb wrote:
penny wrote:Thinksmarkedly, there are way too many passages admitting that the MA's stealth is better. And that is simply based on what we saw in the Galton system.

Again, how much better will MA stealth and their tech get when they break the secret of the mini Manty powerplant.

Please point to some text that supports this. Galton's recon drones (which should have their stealthiest features) were all detected by the GA.

The MA's best stealth technology is the spider drive, which Galton did not have.

Admittedly, some of the passages say "may be better."

But, when Shuttlecock was deployed, there is this passage...

She wished they'd detected whatever it was--and she had a bad feeling about that--earlier. At its current velocity, it would reach Grand Fleet in barely three minutes...

snip

Whatever was coming at them was even stealthier than anything the Grand Alliance had. She'd allowed for that possibility in her planning, but it was obvious she hadn't made sufficient allowance for it. And, she realized now, that was because she'd never actually believed it would happen, whatever she'd told herself and her staff. She'd be a long time forgiving herself for that. It was too much like the SLN's hubris, its assumption that no one could have better tech than the invincible Solarian League.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by penny   » Fri Oct 20, 2023 12:10 pm

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Seems I was right about those 3-second firing grasers too. I stated that the much longer firing time should make up for the grasers reduced size and output. It doesn't matter what their size is, if they fire for 3-seconds sidewalls will fall. I was right that 3-second firing grasers would be too much for even SD sidewalls to overcome.

They managed to take out two Superdreadnaughts, a CLAC, and thirty-six LACs. And Shuttlecock was just a probe of GA defenses???!

And y'all wanna go skipping into the Darius System??? :roll:

HOT AS HELL!!!
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by penny   » Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:06 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
penny wrote:https://forums.davidweber.net/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=10816&hilit=Castling

In The Strategy of Castling thread I suggested that Darius would/could utilize the tactic of pulling their forts back and placing them around the planet; knowing the GA would not fire on these platforms considering their moral compass. It seems I was correct about that.


This rests on a probably faulty assumption: that the GA missiles might hit the planet.

From TEiF, it looks like they're very accurate. Honor was lobbing them at Galton's forts from 10-12 light-minutes away and she demolished them. None of them went after habitats, which would be a far easier target to mistake for than a planet.

If the forts wanted to actually hide behind habitats (assuming there are any), the targetting might be more difficult, because the habitats may occlude the direct line of sight from the missiles to the target. But at this point you have to consider the population, and the Darius population is not militaristic. Habitat residents are likely to evacuate at the first sign of trouble, and more so if the forts cowardly hide themselves behind those habitats. You also have to consider the rank and file aboard the forts, who aren't hardcore Onion members and would not like to have friends & family used as human shields: it's a recipe for mutiny.

Even Honor said that her original plan of wanting to launch at the OWPs as soon as she entered the system stood a good chance of hitting something unintended. I took that to mean launching at that distance without the benefit of Apollo having infiltrated downrange carries a bigger chance of mistargeting.

So I think your thought, Thinksmarkedly, assumes that when attacking Darius, Apollo won't be knocked back.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by tlb   » Fri Oct 20, 2023 1:31 pm

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penny wrote:Thinksmarkedly, there are way too many passages admitting that the MA's stealth is better. And that is simply based on what we saw in the Galton system.

Again, how much better will MA stealth and their tech get when they break the secret of the mini Manty powerplant.

tlb wrote:Please point to some text that supports this. Galton's recon drones (which should have their stealthiest features) were all detected by the GA.

The MA's best stealth technology is the spider drive, which Galton did not have.

penny wrote:Admittedly, some of the passages say "may be better."

But, when Shuttlecock was deployed, there is this passage...

She wished they'd detected whatever it was--and she had a bad feeling about that--earlier. At its current velocity, it would reach Grand Fleet in barely three minutes...

snip

Whatever was coming at them was even stealthier than anything the Grand Alliance had. She'd allowed for that possibility in her planning, but it was obvious she hadn't made sufficient allowance for it. And, she realized now, that was because she'd never actually believed it would happen, whatever she'd told herself and her staff. She'd be a long time forgiving herself for that. It was too much like the SLN's hubris, its assumption that no one could have better tech than the invincible Solarian League.

First: Galton's detection abilities are not as good as those of the Grand Alliance; they could not detect the Hermes Buoy before it started communication nor localize any of the GA's recon drones beyond an occasional hint of a wedge drive, while the GA localized all of Galton's recon drones (including their most stealthy ones).

Second: this is a thought by Honor and not an actual battle assessment. Shuttlecock was actually a disappointment in the amount of damage that it did. It may simply have been stealthier because all acceleration was done much farther out, it had already built up a bow wave by the time it approached the recon drones. It was the speed that was already built up, which allowed it to do that damage.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by penny   » Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:43 pm

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penny wrote:Thinksmarkedly, there are way too many passages admitting that the MA's stealth is better. And that is simply based on what we saw in the Galton system.

Again, how much better will MA stealth and their tech get when they break the secret of the mini Manty powerplant.

tlb wrote:Please point to some text that supports this. Galton's recon drones (which should have their stealthiest features) were all detected by the GA.

The MA's best stealth technology is the spider drive, which Galton did not have.

penny wrote:Admittedly, some of the passages say "may be better."

But, when Shuttlecock was deployed, there is this passage...

She wished they'd detected whatever it was--and she had a bad feeling about that--earlier. At its current velocity, it would reach Grand Fleet in barely three minutes...

snip

Whatever was coming at them was even stealthier than anything the Grand Alliance had. She'd allowed for that possibility in her planning, but it was obvious she hadn't made sufficient allowance for it. And, she realized now, that was because she'd never actually believed it would happen, whatever she'd told herself and her staff. She'd be a long time forgiving herself for that. It was too much like the SLN's hubris, its assumption that no one could have better tech than the invincible Solarian League.

tlb wrote:First: Galton's detection abilities are not as good as those of the Grand Alliance;

True, but that is Galton. Galton is not the MA. If the MA can detect the GA's drones, it seems that that fact would certainly be something they would choose to keep under wraps. Just like the GA did at Galton.

tlb wrote:they could not detect the Hermes Buoy before it started communication nor localize any of the GA's recon drones beyond an occasional hint of a wedge drive, while the GA localized all of Galton's recon drones (including their most stealthy ones).

I disagree with that via Megan Petersen's musing. It is true they detected Galton's drones. But Megan was none too sure they'd be able to lock them up and fire upon them.

tlb wrote:Second: this is a thought by Honor and not an actual battle assessment. Shuttlecock was actually a disappointment in the amount of damage that it did. It may simply have been stealthier because all acceleration was done much farther out, it had already built up a bow wave by the time it approached the recon drones. It was the speed that was already built up, which allowed it to do that damage.

Yes! A thought of Honor's. Honor!

I don't think the author would include the sentiment simply for window dressing. You're pulling at straws. Besides, I agree with Honor's sentiment about SLN hubris. No one else's tech can be better than the mighty SLN, than the mighty RMN. Until it is.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by penny   » Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:54 pm

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tlb wrote:
Jonathan_S wrote:But the question is what standard are they holding themselves to - and how high to they assess the risk of a stray missile or large scale debris?

Before the fall of the League the standard most governments seemed to hold their navies to is they shall undertake no action that could give OFS or the League any possible excuse to intervene against them under even the most wildly broad and expansive interpretation of the Edict.

Basically to assume the League is just itching for any excuse to take over -- and avoid any risk of giving them that excuse.

That's far more restrictive than just honoring the letter, or even the spirit, or the Edict.


Under the letter, and even the spirit, of the Edict using civilian populations in an attempt to provide human shields around military forces forfeits those civilian's protection under the Edict -- at least as far as collateral damage resulting from WMD attacks on those military forces. So, putting forts in low orbit around a planet in the hope of discouraging missiles from firing at them just means that the attacking force is no longer liable for collateral damage that might result from targeting and engaging those forts.

Now the GA might well hold themselves to an even higher standard of minimizing collateral civilian casualties. Though given the accuracy and range of Apollo they might also be able to engage low orbit forts with almost no concern about a stray missile hitting the planet (though debris from damaged forts might still be a concern)

I am willing to accept this, but you seemed to be saying earlier that there no longer was a moral or legal standard the GA needed to apply; just a tactical standard, since the Malign was the enemy and the Edict was no longer enforced. I do not expect the Grand Alliance to only maintain minimum standards.

There is still a problem with using Apollo to attack low level forts; it is best for a single ship to only attack those forts that are seen to the side of the planet (as opposed to those where the planet is seen behind the fort), because then the missile flight and the laser head do not have the planet as a back stop. Actually the ideal weapon to attack the forts is to have the GA make their own version of the graser torpedo; the recon drone body can get close and the micro fusion reactor can power multiple shots for the biggest graser that can be mounted.

Jonathan_S wrote:I didn't intend to imply that Manticore or the Grand Alliance would have no moral or legal restrictions against causing mass civilian death.

Merely that fear of even the slightest risk of inadvertently causing that might not allow their enemies to protect their defenses using the civilan population as human shields. I'd still expect the GA's military codes of justice and rules of engagement to require them to do whatever possible to reasonably reduce the chance of mass civilian collateral damage -- just maybe not to the point of refusing to engage defenses hiding behind civilians. But they'd still pick attack methods that would try to minimize casualties to the civilians despite the fact that using them as human shields removed much of their protections.


However I was also assuming that Apollo is long enough ranged and accurate enough that launches against forts could fly a 'dogleg' course so that, even if the fort was in-line between the launching ship and the planet, the missiles' terminal approach vectors would be angled clear of the planet.

Every enemy except the present enemy. We're talking about the Alignment here. They will certainly not hesitate to use the slaves as shields. And if the GA commit certain atrocities, that will galvanize the slaves against them even more, by proving every single word they were taught by their masters.

I would imagine Honor and the GA got a lot of good will from the citizens of Galton when she still refused to fire on them after that sucker punch. Which, btw, reminded me of something a certain bestie of Honor's did.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by tlb   » Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:55 pm

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penny wrote:I don't think the author would include the sentiment simply for window dressing. You're pulling at straws. Besides, I agree with Honor's sentiment about SLN hubris. No one else's tech can be better than the mighty SLN, than the mighty RMN. Until it is.

I eagerly await the next book in this series, when we may get answers. However I am depressed that reportedly there are at least two projects that have higher priority.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by penny   » Fri Oct 20, 2023 6:03 pm

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penny wrote:Thinksmarkedly, there are way too many passages admitting that the MA's stealth is better. And that is simply based on what we saw in the Galton system.

Again, how much better will MA stealth and their tech get when they break the secret of the mini Manty powerplant.

tlb wrote:Please point to some text that supports this. Galton's recon drones (which should have their stealthiest features) were all detected by the GA.

The MA's best stealth technology is the spider drive, which Galton did not have.

penny wrote:Admittedly, some of the passages say "may be better."

But, when Shuttlecock was deployed, there is this passage...

She wished they'd detected whatever it was--and she had a bad feeling about that--earlier. At its current velocity, it would reach Grand Fleet in barely three minutes...

snip

Whatever was coming at them was even stealthier than anything the Grand Alliance had. She'd allowed for that possibility in her planning, but it was obvious she hadn't made sufficient allowance for it. And, she realized now, that was because she'd never actually believed it would happen, whatever she'd told herself and her staff. She'd be a long time forgiving herself for that. It was too much like the SLN's hubris, its assumption that no one could have better tech than the invincible Solarian League.

tlb wrote:First: Galton's detection abilities are not as good as those of the Grand Alliance; they could not detect the Hermes Buoy before it started communication nor localize any of the GA's recon drones beyond an occasional hint of a wedge drive, while the GA localized all of Galton's recon drones (including their most stealthy ones).

Second: this is a thought by Honor and not an actual battle assessment. Shuttlecock was actually a disappointment in the amount of damage that it did. It may simply have been stealthier because all acceleration was done much farther out, it had already built up a bow wave by the time it approached the recon drones. It was the speed that was already built up, which allowed it to do that damage.

Not an actual battle assessment? The sentiment was made right before she got reamed - in battle. The assessment that is going to matter is the one Honor's going to relay to the demonic duo. "I'm telling you, we didn't see those things until it was too late."

Please note that Shuttlecock wasn't a disappointment to the MA. At the end of the day. Paraphrasing, "On the flip side, we just destroyed more ships in a single launch than the SLN destroyed during their entire war. And Shuttlecock was always meant to be a probe of Manty defenses."
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by tlb   » Fri Oct 20, 2023 7:26 pm

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penny wrote:Please note that Shuttlecock wasn't a disappointment to the MA. At the end of the day. Paraphrasing, "On the flip side, we just destroyed more ships in a single launch than the SLN destroyed during their entire war. And Shuttlecock was always meant to be a probe of Manty defenses."

Very nice cherry pick, but the complete text goes like this:
It was obvious the Grand Alliance hadn't seen the Hastas coming, at least until the very last moment. He'd authorized Auberjonois to spin up two more of there precious FTL communications relays to feed Irving Fischer's tactical officers data in near real-time, and he'd felt a fierce surge as the stealthy platforms launched their attack birds and the torrent of fire had ripped straight into the Grand Alliance's teeth.

But now his jaw tightened as the huge fortress's CIC refined and updated its data.

Three ships. They'd destroyed three ships.

His hands closed into fists under cover of his console as that sank home. Only three.


"Grossadmiral, I -" Auberjonois's voice faltered, and Montalvan nodded.

"I see it, Tomasz." He was astounded his own voice sounded so calm, and he tilted back in his command chair. "I'd hoped for more. Still, we just killed more Alliance superdreadnoughts in a single salvo than the Sollies managed in their entire war. And Shuttlecock was always at least a probe. A test of their defenses. And we got a lot of data on those. The next strike will use it."
If the best the Malign can do is say we accomplished more than the SLN, that is not much of an accomplishment at all.

But the next strikes did not do much more damage. For the final large Hasta strike the fleet just hypered out until the danger was past. That one killed 70 LAC's.

Now if Darius had Ghost-class ships monitoring all of this, it might be more significant; but we will not know until we get a book that follows up.
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