cthia wrote:You wrote: "Who says they can get that close?"
It hasn't been determined that they can't. They haven't even had their maiden voyage. (Albeit that awful author of ours translated into a thread, teased me that they are ready then pulled a Houdini. LOL)
My point is we don't know how close the "Lennys" can get. I know we argued about the effectiveness of their stealth, and I posited it is at least a cut above RMN stealth.*
I'd like to interject the scene where Honor was lying doggo in the wargames with Fearless and popped someone's top with the weapon I dare not name. (Albeit, that weapon's range was considerably greater.) But if I'm right about the MA's stealth being a cut above GA stealth, then my scenario is possible. We don't know if the Lenny's stealth is a lot better than what has been seen. (Or, should that be, what has NOT been seen. LOL)
I think we can assume that MAN stealth technology is better than RMN. HMS Fearless was less than 100,000 from HMS King Roger, a King William-class SD. Though she was two generations from the latest, we can probably assume that the Home Fleet flagship was refitted with upgraded sensors once.
But I'm not sure how comparable those two situations is. In one, we're talking about a pre-war SD, before all the experience from the war in improving sensors against ECM, detecting an 88k tonne light-cruiser. One that was not deemed to be a threat to an SD, so even when it was detected, it was ignored. Once; the tactic never worked again. On the other, we're talking about a post-war capital ship, with the benefit of RHN's best tac witch's experience, detecting a massive warship that is either DN-sized (a Shark) or outweighs an SD by at least a third (a Lenny Det).
I think you're also missing another point. Losing a Shark for a capital ship, especially if they can get two or more, is a fair exchange for the MA. You are not allowing for the fact that the MA will be thinking in the same terms as Haven did initially, "A short victorious war." They can't afford to let this thing drag on. And even if the mission fails, the GA still doesn't know where to find them.
The MA just need to take out enough ships during their initial run in to allow them to control the orbitals
The MAlign needs to take out the yards (again), all of them this time. Otherwise, a 2 or 3 for one is still not an advantageous exchange, since the GA can outproduce them. And taking out 200 capital ships in one stealth exchange is unlikely to the extreme. If those ships are dispersed, then the GA can't know where they are; if they are bunched up, they have mutual protection and we've established that
firing gives the Lenny Dets and Sharks' positions away. The attacking force needs to take all ships in the first salvo. And that probably includes all the BCs and possibly CAs too.
One more detail: I don't think the MAlign can take out Bolthole. First, they don't know where it is located and is not likely to figure out soon. Second, even if they do, the Sanctuary system is filled dust:
Dark Fall, ch. IV wrote:Not only that, KCR-126-06 had actually been looked at—sort of—by astronomers over a thousand T-years ago. There wasn’t much to see—the giant and its red dwarf companions had no planets at all, and KCR-125-06-D was so close to a red dwarf itself that the chance of a planet in its liquid-water zone not being tide-locked to it was unlikely in the extreme. In addition, the K8 star was surrounded by an extraordinarily dense interplanetary dust cloud.
What do you think happens when a massive ship moves through a dense interplanetary dust cloud? It'll cause a current of dust, which can probably be detected. The spider itself will probably cause disruption in the dust.