[Spolier] impact of new compensator and Hyper on Merchies

kzt wrote:

n7axw wrote:Tech is not static. Eventually the streak will no longer be cutting edge for military purposes. As that happens the tech becomes more broadly known, more economical, and more broadly applied. While streaks for freighters might not be an immediate priority, I doubt that faster freighters would be objectionable either. So it's an idea whose time will eventually come, later if not sooner.

Military hyperdrives are OLD technology. Like 400 years old. They are still not used by merchants.

When some bit of tech is adapted, there is usually a point. With miltary hyperdrives there would be no point and the price has not come down...

Don

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n7axw wrote:Tech is not static. Eventually the streak will no longer be cuttiwng edge for military purposes. As that happens the tech becomes more broadly known, more economical, and more broadly applied. While streaks for freighters might not be an immediate priority, I doubt that faster freighters would be objectionable either. So it's an idea whose time will eventually come, later if not sooner.

kzt wrote:Military hyperdrives are OLD technology. Like 400 years old. They are still not used by merchants.

n7axw wrote:
When some bit of tech is adapted, there is usually a point. With miltary hyperdrives there would be no point and the price has not come down...

Don-

The advantages really come into play on a fleet level. A 25% reduction in transit times for a merchie fleet translates into a 25% increase in carrying capacity for that fleet. Better, it is a 25% increase in carrying capacity without any increase in labor and a much smaller increase in capital investments than buying 25% more merchant ships. The individual ship can't carry more cargo on any one trip, but it can go on more trips in a given period or complete more longer trips within a fiscal period. Both scenarios mean more money if the new hyper generators don't require too much more time for servicing in a space dock.

Given the potentially greater volume of space the GA merchant marine and navy has to cover, selective adoption of the streak drive may well be a necessity.

n7axw wrote:

kzt wrote:Military hyperdrives are OLD technology. Like 400 years old. They are still not used by merchants.

When some bit of tech is adapted, there is usually a point. With miltary hyperdrives there would be no point and the price has not come down...

Don

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I think this is why there is speculation/wishful thinking that the work that goes into the streak drive could also produce a merchant hyperdrive that is 5% more expensive and requires 10% more maintenance to get you to the Epsilon bands as opposed to an old style military hyper drive that costs 100% more and requires >400% more maintenance than an old style merchant hyperdrive.

PeterZ wrote:Given the potentially greater volume of space the GA merchant marine and navy has to cover, selective adoption of the streak drive may well be a necessity.

What "greater volume?" The only "new" market opening is Haven. Prior to Lacoon the RMMM covered pretty much the entire league and most of the verge. If anything, the RMMM is going to suffer a net loss of volume to service because of resentment over the disruption of the Solarian League's commerce; former League members will be inspired to develop their own merchant marine(s) to avoid another such disruption in trade.

The GA will have a greater volume to cover than the RMN did pre-Lacoon, but they'll have several navies to take up the slack.

Weird Harold wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Given the potentially greater volume of space the GA merchant marine and navy has to cover, selective adoption of the streak drive may well be a necessity.

What "greater volume?" The only "new" market opening is Haven. Prior to Lacoon the RMMM covered pretty much the entire league and most of the verge. If anything, the RMMM is going to suffer a net loss of volume to service because of resentment over the disruption of the Solarian League's commerce; former League members will be inspired to develop their own merchant marine(s) to avoid another such disruption in trade.

The GA will have a greater volume to cover than the RMN did pre-Lacoon, but they'll have several navies to take up the slack.

The ex-protectorates have bulk exports the Core Worlds want that have some preference advantage to local production. The war didn't change that. What the war did change was the ex-protectorates ability to alter their trading partners. I suspect that those exporters will prefer to sell their bulk goods to GA merchies for several reasons. That being the case, the GA merchies or the RMMM in large part will gain the sipping of all those ex-protectorates. I doubt the RMMM had many of those routes antebellum. The Transstellars wouldn't have exposed their practices to the Manties.

That means the GA gains routes in the much more spread out Verge and ex-protectorate regions while they lose routes in the more concentrated Core Shell Worlds. The profitability of those Protectorate routes may be smaller that the Ore World routes, but I doubt it. The cost of OFS management and Transstellar gouging will be spread between those locals and their new shipping partners. Partners that have access to Manty financing can make more profits providing honest services the Transstellars eschewed to cheat the locals instead.

So, I doubt the Manty economic downturn will last long nor the RMMM remain underemployed long.

My Investment money would go to a Short/Long term leasing with option to buy Company.

a Streak-Merchie (UHaul)

Nimitz

Weird Harold wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Given the potentially greater volume of space the GA merchant marine and navy has to cover, selective adoption of the streak drive may well be a necessity.

What "greater volume?" The only "new" market opening is Haven. Prior to Lacoon the RMMM covered pretty much the entire league and most of the verge. If anything, the RMMM is going to suffer a net loss of volume to service because of resentment over the disruption of the Solarian League's commerce; former League members will be inspired to develop their own merchant marine(s) to avoid another such disruption in trade.

The GA will have a greater volume to cover than the RMN did pre-Lacoon, but they'll have several navies to take up the slack.

Two points here. First, the Haven market is sizable and opening it up will expand its size still more.

Secondly, while other systems might develop their own merchant marine, I suspect that the companies doing the trading will be more than happy to "kiss and make up" when the Manty merchant marine returns to pick up their cargos. After all, that means recovery of their old markets right away whereas developing a merchant marine takes time and competing with Manticore's established merchant marine fleet's rates while possible, won't be easy, especially in the capitalization and start up phase.

I think it's more likely that Manticore's merchant fleet will find itself expanding to meet increased demand for its services.

Don

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PeterZ wrote:The ex-protectorates have bulk exports the Core Worlds want that have some preference advantage to local production. The war didn't change that. What the war did change was the ex-protectorates ability to alter their trading partners.

What difference to the RMMM if a newly independent system contracts to carry cargo instead of the transtellar formerly in control of the contracts?

The RMMM carried an enormous percentage of SL and Transtellar cargoes before Lacoon and they'll regain most of that percentage, plus about a ten percent increase in markets in Haven (where native freighters already have most of the markets covered.)

PeterZ wrote:The ex-protectorates have bulk exports the Core Worlds want that have some preference advantage to local production. The war didn't change that. What the war did change was the ex-protectorates ability to alter their trading partners.

Weird Harold wrote:
What difference to the RMMM if a newly independent system contracts to carry cargo instead of the transtellar formerly in control of the contracts?

The RMMM carried an enormous percentage of SL and Transtellar cargoes before Lacoon and they'll regain most of that percentage, plus about a ten percent increase in markets in Haven (where native freighters already have most of the markets covered.)

If the SLN doesn't protect their merchies outside the League, all the Solly merchies will take the cargo instead of carrying from the ex-Protectorate systems. They will pick up the Core World trade and give up carrying anything beyond the Core. That shift means the Core World carry trade available for the RMMM will diminish. They can make that up by taking the bulk trade into the Core Worlds from beyond. That does mean they need to travel greater distances to fill their new contracts.

All told there will be about the same amount of physical trade being moved, only the distances the RMMM needs to travel and the profits per run may change. Those newly independent worlds may offer increased profits in the non-shipping services they require. Services a cartel or conglomerate may be able to provide.

PeterZ wrote:

Weird Harold wrote:The RMMM carried an enormous percentage of SL and Transtellar cargoes before Lacoon ...

That shift means the Core World carry trade available for the RMMM will diminish. They can make that up by taking the bulk trade into the Core Worlds from beyond.

you missed the point that the RMMM was already carrying a large percentage of that out-system cargo into the League under contract to transtellars. they aren't going to pick up much new business from that quarter.