GA response to SL attempts to prevent seccessions

kzt wrote:I think they expect it will collapse like the USSR and Warsaw Pact did.

Is that the best analogue?

I view the League as more a wealthy United States of America bound by the Articles of Confederation. Each state is well off and its citizens prosperous. They maintained the only taxing mechanism for the federal government as foreign tariffs and services fees. The federal government then would be facilitating companies exploiting South America in exchange for services fees and tariffs for imported goods. Mexico and Canada would be the Protectorates and Shell respectively.

PeterZ wrote:

kzt wrote:I think they expect it will collapse like the USSR and Warsaw Pact did.

Is that the best analogue?

I view the League as more a wealthy United States of America bound by the Articles of Confederation. Each state is well off and its citizens prosperous. They maintained the only taxing mechanism for the federal government as foreign tariffs and services fees. The federal government then would be facilitating companies exploiting South America in exchange for services fees and tariffs for imported goods. Mexico and Canada would be the Protectorates and Shell respectively.

It seems far more like the UN. There seems little control over the member planets except in terms of trade. When the planets involved in the planning for the Mesalliance are described, each one is different.

Also, taxing power is tiny...only on interplanetary trade.

In some ways it might be compared to the British Empire a century ago. Some places were treated as equals and others as protectorates.

ldwechsler wrote:It seems far more like the UN. There seems little control over the member planets except in terms of trade. When the planets involved in the planning for the Mesalliance are described, each one is different.

A closer analogy would be the League Of Nations after WWI -- with a touch of Polish Confederation Parliament in the "everyone has a veto" element.

Hi WeirdHarold, everybody else;

Thank you all for your interesting and perceptive comments.

Your first point is a very wise one, but these first four have already apparently seceded, even though we don't yet know their names, as has Beowulf [a couple monthes ago], so the GA TF's should have already arrived, or at least before the BF does.

Assuming these four lie midway between the 'old league' and the shells, say 175 LY, it could take the BF TF's up to 21-25 days to get there.

It will probably take more than 50 days for Old Chicago to find out what happened to them.

Scotty's fascinating independent command was in SoV not ART.

Some RF members do have substantial SDF's, Mannerheim for example, but to avoid being identified too quickly and too easily, some do not.

But the suggestion that the RF will be in the second tranche of of those seceding makes a whole lot of sense; not too early, not too late, more in sorrow than in anger, -just right.

Very interesting times indeed.

L

Weird Harold wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Presumably if these systems' leadership have the brains God gave geese, they've already physically received GA protection, not just some MAlign promises, having sent off their own db's and freighters to the GA some time ago.

I suspect that the GA is going to adopt the same policy for every League Member seceding from the League as they have for Beowulf -- no GA presence in the system until after the system secedes to prevent allegations of intimidation.

I think Scotty's task force in ART would be typical for supporting secessionist systems, assuming enough of the FSVs are available. Otherwise, a slower mix with conventional freighters in the fleet support role.

lyonheart wrote:OTOH, some of these might be the first RF systems establishing themselves, but that's another thread.

I would bet that they are at least systems with substantial SDF forces. That would fit the RF members and they constitute a large percentage of the purported number of systems with substantial SDFs.

In either case, they may well expect that their system defense establishment will be sufficient to withstand SLN expeditionary forces without outside help.

Hi PeterZ,

Thanks for some very interesting comments.

My response to snip 1 is to mainly echo the points made by later posters that from the textev the RF intended to oppose the SL, especially contrast its moral superiority, the implication being that Manticore, Haven and Beowulf are gone or soon will be.

My reaction to Snip 2 is a bit more involved.

First, the BF isn't irrelevant, though they are over 70 billion tons of obsolete scrap, they are more than enough to intimidate anyone who doesn't have any SD's, like 96% of the SL, and 100% of the protectorates and the verge [the Haven sector is beyond the verge], maybe 3000 star systems.

They've always been the huge club that let FF get away with so relatively few ships and letting OFS get away with murder.

Eliminating them will the biggest and surest sign to the verge, protectorates, and shells that the bad old times are over and won't return, rather critical for them before they sign on with the GA, so I expect only a very small fraction of the Bf to survive the next few to several monthes.

Unfortunately, even with the post HoS construction, ie another ten monthes before OB, the number of Saganami-C's and Roland's will still be too few for a squadron of each to be 1% of their classes, though not 1% of the RMN CLAC's. Furthermore, the number of pods they could tractor, assuming the Roland's can tractor 20 each is only 480, or 4800 missiles which is barely half [54%] of what's needed for another force as big as Crandall's 71 SD's [at least 125 missiles each apparently], NTM keeping in mind Mike targeted only 23 in her first volley.

You're quite right that the RMN's best cruisers and destroyers are needed elsewhere, and the RHN should have plenty of SDP's and CLAC's to send as pairs to deal with this aspect of winning the hearts and minds of most of the rest of the SL, given that almost a quarter of the EC assembly [2903] voted in support of Beowulf when most of the delegations have 3 or less; from those numbers I'd argue its closer to 3/4 or ~1350.

Lots of RHN CLAC's are quite possible, given their construction is much simpler than SDP's, BC's and CA's etc, and with several industrialized star systems dedicated to their construction, many dozens if not hundreds could have been built by now, so they could also be sent in pairs, or possibly paired with a RMN CLAC, of which there should be something between 200 and 300 by now.

Even at 20 RHN pods per BF SD, each RHN SDP could kill 20 from the 400 pods carried internally, so a pair could kill at least 40 or 2.5% of the active BF, a far too large fraction of the BF to risk in this mission when they find out who's waiting for them, before adding possibly 400 more tractored externally, given their much greater size, and doubling that, so they wouldn't need to reload from an accompanying ammunition ship unless the SL/SLN continued to be very stupid.

Until the BF reserve is also destroyed it will continue to loom large in the nightmares of all those considering leaving the SL, perhaps 5/6 of the members besides all the protectorates, probably before the core 'old league' realizes how serious things have become.

While keeping some members from attacking others will still be required of some BF squadrons, I expect the GA to assume those missions when the time comes, but reducing the potential for intimidation for the rest comes first.

I suspect the RF SDF's to be among those that might try turning conquistador their secondary intended victims, but I suspect they won't want to confront the GA so openly yet, so their success will be far less than the MAlign expected.

How sad. Too bad.

L

PeterZ wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi all,

snip 1

OTOH, some of these might be the first RF systems establishing themselves, but that's another thread.

snip 2
The sooner these BF TG's are dealt with, the sooner the SL will collapse.

Very interesting times indeed.

L

Snip1-
I dont think the RF will secede from the League. The entire MAlign plan is one where the barbaric Verge tears apart a decaying Solarian League. The MAlign first chose Haven to be the heavy and then Manticore stole the limelight through sheer competence. The trauma attendant with chaos disrupt the League Core and Shell but not destroy them. Many Shell worlds will see massive disruptions, but for the most part the Core will face a simply severe recession as they build the infrastructure to offset the inputs they lost via any trade disruption.

That suggests to me that the Renaissance Factor will initially target those Core with enough resources to weather this storm relatively smoothly. Can't you see the pitch? Join us in rebuilding this shattered galaxy! The Verge barbarians are a wreck and threaten to spread their chaos into the Core. We must band together and establish order. They can't make that pitch if they seceded from the League. They can't argue that they were uninfected by the chaos, if they indeed were infected enough to secede. Their strongest argument will be how well they weathered the storm battering the entire League, when all others floundered like weekend sailors.

I can see Maya as a MAlign strategy to gather the Verge together for collection later. I can't see the RF targeting the Verge initially as their rebuilding strategy. I can't see the RF seceding, if they truly wish to build their resurgence around former Core league worlds.

Snip-2
As for the BF fleet, they are irrelevant. A Squadron of Sag-Cs accompanied by 1 squadron of Rolands, a CLAC and a fast freighter will put paid to any BF TF the size Crandall took to Spindle. The problem with using cruisers is that they will be needed spread all over the Verge protecting against commerce raiders. Using the Grand Fleet's SDPs, they can send out divisions of them with a CLAC for company to kick the living snot of just about force BF cares to send out. They may not defeat a large enough force, but they can rip huge gaping holes in that order of battle without suffering any loss at all. Once they can reload, they come back and settle the matter more permanently.

All BF can do is keep the peace between Core worlds wishing to remain in the League as the rest of the galaxy falls apart around them. Should they go after Core worlds that want to join Beowulf, they get destroyed. So, BF SDs are irrelevant to the League collapsing. That is happening with the Protectorates wanting out of their serf status. The League as such cannot survive without them. The structure that rises from the League ashes will have to survive on direct taxation of the Core worlds. BF SDs will be important to securing those Core worlds from possible SDFs turning conquistador.

Hi Jonathan_S,

I'm sorry I overlooked you in the queue.

Thanks for your usual excellent points.

The RHN as RFC has noted in the textev several times does have the same deep strike capability the RMN has.

But I certainly do agree it may not be enough for so many other TG's given the primary focus on the main fleets, so isn't it handy that there are all these MMM freighters ready to help out?

Isn't RFC clever?

Again you're quite right that we've yet to seen any improvements in RHN below the wall warships, and while Bolthole very understandably concentrated on SDP and LAC/CLAC production, I doubt the RHN entirely ignored them, NTM its been almost 7&1/2 years since Theisman shot Saint-Just, and the RHN knew they could have several industrialized star systems concentrate on building each class once the design was finalized, so hundreds if not thousands might have been built so far.

The cruiser bow and stern walls were only suspected by the RMN in SoS, expected only because the RHN had copied so much else, it being a fairly simple improvement.

I suspect RFC and Bu9 have been enjoying some creative skull sessions to happily surprise us in House of Lies next spring, maybe even a few wargames they briefed RFC on, since he's been unable to participate as is his want, given his writing schedule.

Of course if anyone here at the forums has some ideas, feel free; though it may be a bit too late for HoL, but may still draw some interest for potential IAN ships; who knows?

We don't know the performance of RHN counter-missiles, but the lack of any discussion of a 'counter-missile gap' [ ] has yet occurred in all the textev inclines me to believe this may be relatively moot, that one way or another Shannon Foraker has come up with another 'good enough' solution.

Mk-14 type ERM's or LERM's's certainly seem likely to me, given no Mk-16's until after they learned about them from 8th Fleet, but that was a couple years ago, so they may have quickly modified some of their larger classes as soon as they could.

A dual drive missile at the RHN's known velocity capabilities would have a powered range of just over 27 million kilometers, almost 92.5% of the Mk-16; generally close enough I think given RHN numerical superiority, until the RMN discovered that fact.

Anyone care to suggest how Shannon might have dealt with this problem?

"Very interesting", don't you think?

L

Jonathan_S wrote:

lyonheart wrote:The RHN is rather bigger than the RMN, and given the 1200+ SDP's in service after Haven and her 2-3 daughter colonies finally completed their 400 by last February [from early AAC], besides whatever Bolthole is producing after the initial 800, before getting into how quickly the RHN shifted to pods tractors like the SLN/TIY was able to do so easily.

Besides so many SDP's, I expect LOTS of RHN CLAC's, and at least a pair or two for each TG/TF seems very possible to me, while having several of the RoH's industrialized systems building each class of escort, ie expect thousands.

Thus it wouldn't surprise me that many if not most of these 'succession rescue' TG's were largely RHN and commanded, though I always expect some RMN representation, besides others to show this is indeed a GA.

I'd expect some of these TG's (possibly TF's), to be big enough to provide similar protection to any neighbors who are far more willing to 'stand up' to the SL, when the needed protection is already so near.

Until we know more about the RHN ship classes, due in House of Lies next year if I understand things correctly, I can't propose RHN combinations, except a pair of SDP's and CLAC's, as we can for the RMN.

For example a RMN TG might have a pair of old SD's and a pair of Agamemnon BCP's, besides a pair of CLAC's and old cruisers and DD's for escorts, which could be split to provide protection to another neighbor when its requested, so that system might have just one old SD and a BCP with some 1084 pods between them, before adding the CLAC's and escorts.

I suspect that you're right, that it makes the most sense for Haven to provide the heavy hitters for any small task forces -- they've got far more numerous SD(P)s right now - and their refit and resupply infrastructure isn't being rebuilt like Manticore's is.

I suspect Manticore would have to provide logistical support (partly from all those idled freighters) because Haven has never had the long range deployment focus Manticore had - so they probably don't have the shipping to keep detachemest scattered all over the verge supplied.

But in terms of combat contributions - we've seen no evidence significant improvements in Haven's DDs - BCs (beyond equipping them with bow/stern sidewalls) - so I suspect the biggest bang for the buck Manticore could chip in would be escorts modern enough to carry significant numbers of the extended range Mk31 CMs.

Though if they contemplate splitting the escorts off into detached pickets having escorts capable of internally firing at least LERMs/ERMs or Mk16s would be higher priority - but when screening Havenite SD(P)s the longer CM range seems more important than whatever offensive power they could provide. (So even SDM designs refit to fire Mk31s would be great in the direct escort role).

Remember Manticore's extended range single drive missiles seem to have roughly the same effective range as the League's 2-stage Cataphracts (though obviously the later can add coast time between stages for longer range - but their accuracy seems to suffer beyond 15 million km)

Hi Cthia,

Thanks for the correction, which I amended in the title, but left in the text, to avoid confusing people.

Isn't English wonderful if not mysterious in so many ways?

If only Spellcheck could do punctuation and context as well, right?

Thanks again,

L

cthia wrote:Of course, I think lyonheart means secession as opposed to succession.

Secession is to withdraw.
Succession is to inherit title.

I come close to making the same mistake a lot but catch myself in time, most of the time. Such a confusing couple of words.

Hi WeirdHarold,

Thanks for pointing this out so I don't have to run and look up all the references.

L

Weird Harold wrote:

PeterZ wrote:I dont think the RF will secede from the League.

IIRC, there is explicit textev that the RF will secede and form its own separate star nation while sweeping up neighboring systems under the guise of providing protection and stability. They really can't accomplish their goals from within a crumbling Solarian League, since their goal is to form a new League organized the way a "proper" League should be -- with MAlign "Star Lines" in (absolute) charge.

Hi PeterZ,

Some truly excellent points, kudos!

Leaving amid dozens if not hundreds after the Beowulf
KEW 'accident' would be excellent camouflage, since I think some of them are smart enough to realise the GA is already looking for them.

You're right again they will avoid being tarnished by any association with the GA, Beowulf , especially given the MAlign's claims they killed so many Mesan's [SoV].

Although I'll be very interested in anyone and everyone's suggestions of how the GA can refute the charges, in another thread, of course.

We have so much thread drift already.

L

PeterZ wrote:

Weird Harold wrote:quote="PeterZ"I dont think the RF will secede from the League. /quote

IIRC, there is explicit textev that the RF will secede and form its own separate star nation while sweeping up neighboring systems under the guise of providing protection and stability. They really can't accomplish their goals from within a crumbling Solarian League, since their goal is to form a new League organized the way a "proper" League should be -- with MAlign "Star Lines" in (absolute) charge.

When will they secede? My thoughts are that they won't secede along with Beowulf and other first movers. If they do, they get tagged as part of the movement that killed the Solarian League. If they secede later, they may be able to spin it as trying to be like the Phoenix rising from the ashes.

The SEM will be ever tarnished with the League for the same reason. They killed the Solarian League. Nothing they do will change the future history of their actions. For that reason, the RF will want to avoid being tarnished with that particular reputation and stick it out long enough to avoid it.

Hi KZT,

Not to get too political, but Putin does seem to be effectively stitching the Soviet Union back together the last 20-25 years, doesn't he?

Given how long prolong will enable generations of shared memories, such a short collapse won't be acceptable to most ex-members or the protectorates, NTM the verge etc.

You may well be right as to some observer's expectations, considering how corrupt the SL is, but given the war and how outmatched they are, they're going to crash and it won't be very pretty.

There are too many people or star systems who want it messy.

L

kzt wrote:I think they expect it will collapse like the USSR and Warsaw Pact did.