Intelligence Failures After Zanzibar

Theemile wrote:The battle has plotholes so large an SD squadron with full tactical recon screen could pass through in formation without scraping the sides. David's writing is usually tight, this plot driven book stands out.

Jonathan_S wrote:

cthia wrote:* I'd like to thank Star Knight for recommending what promises to be a very informative read. No doubt a bestseller. I truly wish I could get my hands on a copy.

Either chapter can be discussed. However, the one that has always stuck in my craw is the "presumed" intelligence failures suggested by Chapter 2. I know that Hemphill bore the weight of what she considers her own intelligence failures. Yet I could never agree with her.

For one, she was kept rather busy - in a heated battle with the ingenuity of Shannon Foraker while trying to retain the initiative.

Is it your own failure or the brilliance of your enemy? IINM, the common assumption was predicated on the fact that enormous funds were being channeled "somewhere" and should have alerted Manty intelligence. Yet, the "black hole" could have been anything. I just don't see how this can be considered a screw up by the Manties rather than a success by the Havenites.

The "Intelligence failures after Zanzibar" that kzt was talking about isn't that Foraker helped invent the capability gap closing designs that let Haven suck the Mantie defenders into a vulnerable position then re-ammo and wipe them out.
It was that (as David later explained in a post here) that to do that Haven had to quite visibly demonstrate the capability of the tractor multiplying Donkey, and the vastly increased number of deployed pods it let RHN SD(P)s stack for massive alpha salvos.

Manticore got a very painful first-hand look at Haven's podnaughts new ability to tow and fire multiple very heavy missile salvos - far more than Manticore could have done before their self-tractoring pods. So even if Manticore didn't know how Haven did that, they had to know Haven now could stack and tow far more pods than anybody could using only ship's tractors.

That capability has major impacts on tactical options, and should have altered Home Fleet's combat plans. They held off on firing to get the best shot they could, partly because they assumed that Haven couldn't tow enough pods to decimate Home Fleet in a single launch, and then they'd have to delay to stack more pods or go to lighter salvos. But based on how they'd been hit at Zanzibar they should have known that wasn't true. The counter to the ability to deeply stack pods is to start firing earlier and force the enemy to fire (or lose) the already deployed pods and stop deeply stacking the rest of their loadout. But that's not what Home Fleet did.

We were led to believe that the Donkey was just as much of a surprise to them as it was to the readers -- except David went back and said, nope Manticore saw it before at Zanzibar.


KZT's takeaway is that Manticore suffered a massive intelligence failure. My takeaway is that the post needed editing and that had the battle made it into a short story or flashback after the BoM was written he'd have tweaked it so Haven didn't actually reveal the secret of the donkey there - so it was a surprise to Manticore at BoM (just like it seemed in the book)

WLBjork wrote:
I'd like to remind everyone of Honor's discussion with White Haven during "In Enemy Hands", in which she notes that Admiral Givens hasn't passed on information about Haven probably using pods in combat.

This could be more of the same. Still doesn't excuse the sorry mess for a battle, but the intelligence failure isn't without precedent.

Somtaaw wrote: Except that when he needs intel, he REALLY needed the intel [such as the donkey intel]

kzt wrote:

Somtaaw wrote: Except that when he needs intel, he REALLY needed the intel [such as the donkey intel]

It would probably also be helpful if someone had thought to launch some of those cute little recon drones so the CO of Home Fleet doesn't have to guess what the enemy is doing....

kzt wrote:

Somtaaw wrote: Except that when he needs intel, he REALLY needed the intel [such as the donkey intel]

It would probably also be helpful if someone had thought to launch some of those cute little recon drones so the CO of Home Fleet doesn't have to guess what the enemy is doing....

But it's all plot. There really is no reason for much of the actions and decisions making other then that was what the outline says happen and that was the easiest way to make it happen.

kzt wrote:

Theemile wrote:The battle has plotholes so large an SD squadron with full tactical recon screen could pass through in formation without scraping the sides. David's writing is usually tight, this plot driven book stands out.

Well, I can't argue with this.

Star Knight wrote:

kzt wrote: It would probably also be helpful if someone had thought to launch some of those cute little recon drones so the CO of Home Fleet doesn't have to guess what the enemy is doing....

Tourville had a massive screen, over 100 Battlecruisers and Heavy Cruisers and more than 3000 LACs. Shouldnt be impossible to keep the recon drones far enough away.

But as you said, all plot.
Honor has to be the heroine, no matter the cost.

kzt wrote:

Somtaaw wrote: Except that when he needs intel, he REALLY needed the intel [such as the donkey intel]

It would probably also be helpful if someone had thought to launch some of those cute little recon drones so the CO of Home Fleet doesn't have to guess what the enemy is doing....

But it's all plot. There really is no reason for much of the actions and decisions making other then that was what the outline says happen and that was the easiest way to make it happen.

Theemile wrote:Right, even though the Havenites jumped close to Sphinx as it's orbit is just inside the hyperlimit, there was still well over an hour before the two fleets started firing on each other due to the resonance zone. Plenty of time to vector drones, gather intel, confer with other fleet/district commanders on plans and responsibilities, confer with staffs (which should point out relevant intel or suggest tactics which a CO isn't aware of or acting upon), and make informed, rational decisions on how to proceed.

There should be plans, and contingency plans, and backup plans, and extreme backup plans. Procedures should be in place, practiced and reviewed by all relevant commands. Yes, 360 SDs is insane, but there should have been a folder in the contingency plans for Home Fleet and the Manticorian defenses marked "Haven Throws all the Marbles at Us" which detailed this very situation, and how it should be dealt with. And like every contingency folder, it should be occasionally wargamed and updated with options, recommendations and responsibilities, which include the current fleet OOB, and using the latest technologies, tactics while reflecting the latest capabilities, tactics and technologies the opposition is using.

Instead we feel rushed and harried, with the commands acting as if it had been Darth Vader who showed up with the entire Imperial Armada and both Death Stars, not Tourville and the Havenite fleet. Home Fleet and 3rd fleet act as if they are just going through the motions in a fog; reacting, not acting to what happens around them and definitely not using the newest playbooks for their commands, like the offensive commanders have been using.

Oh well, this battle is history now. Hopefully it is reviewed in a class at Saganami Island, and students learn from it so the mistakes will never be repeated. Tester knows, people will be writing critiques about it for centuries to come, both in the Honorverse and in the forums.