Scenario of War with the League

Eagleeye wrote:But ... The Solarian League is so damned big, you simply can't control even the Core-Worlds, ...

That is why "The Harrington Doctrine" doesn't consider "control" any League world, but aims for breaking the League into independent systems that they can conclude separate peace/trade/mutual defense treaties with.

Some former Core World, or even former Shell World, might become antagonistic and/or belligerent in the future, but they will be alone and NOT the Solarian League rising from the ashes.

The Renaissance Factor will throw a wrench onto the works eventually, but at the moment the RF, the MAlign, and the Grand Alliance all have the same goal; breaking the Solarian League into as many separate (mutually antagonistic, in the case of the MAlign and RF) pieces as possible. But that eventuality is precluded in Sigs' scenario of the MAlign playing no part -- which would include not forming the RF since that is a later development than Sigs' timeline.

If the GA tries to break up the League by brute force instead of driving diplomatic wedges into the pre-existing fracture lines, they're going to lose in the long run.

They MUST form enough mutual defense alliances to counter any single former League member. There are many Core worlds bigger than the current GA and technically advanced enough to build a credible threat, but there are none big enough or technically advanced enough to withstand a Grand Alliance that has grown by absorbing even half of the former SL systems as they break away.

Manticore alone, or the Grand Alliance as it exists post-Filareta, can't survive in the long-term without making friends and trading partners out of seceding League systems. IF they try conquest through brute force and controlling former league worlds as "protectorates" they are doomed.

kzt wrote:I'm not kidding that there are hundreds of core worlds that have more industrial capability than the entire SEM, and most have 3-10 times the population of the entire Manticore home system.

So basically most any single core world is perfectly capable of fielding a force larger then the entire RMN if they are motivated to do so.

What are the odds that they can't fairly rapidly build 200 year old ship designs if they are motivated to do so?

We've had this discussion on the board several times before (and if the MWW doesn't get the next book out on time, we'll probably have it again).

No question, that given time and necessity any number of core worlds could buckle down and produce a Manticore-size fleet. If they would have the same bells and whistles as the GA, that may be food for debate, but let's say they can at least develop to 2nd Manticore RHN-levels.

But it's going to cost a lot of money, take a lotof skilled people, and build a lot of military infrastucture (not even counting the logistics and training), something Manticore started nearly 50 years ago under Roger II.

So the GA job (and it is a doozy) is to (1) Make sure that current threats (SLN, SD-building sites) are taken off the board while (2) Making nice with all these worlds and signing treaties to oblivate the need for them to do all the sacrifices and work to build a major fleet.

It's going to be a neat trick to pull off...I'll be interested to see how the MWW is going to do it (or if he confounds us by doing most of it off-screen....)

We shall see...eventually.

Eagleeye wrote:

Theemile wrote:Even if they have the technology, they need to gear up for that specific construction, train their workers, then build the ships, which is going to take 6 years or so. And then, yes, Every major system can be a Manticore.

Even if you have a shipyard, you already have a pipeline of ships completing. Let's say there are 9 SDs in verious stages of work... great, you,ll get a new SD every 6 months for the next 5 or so years. You can hire more people and lay down more ships now...and you'll see a massive new fleet... in about 5 years....

Fortunately, the GA knows this, and isn't goig to play thelong game... because they will lose.

"Ask me for anything but time" (Napoleon I, if I remember correctly)

But ... The Solarian League is so damned big, you simply can't control even the Core-Worlds, much less the worlds in the shell (some of them are not to sneer at, too - technologically speaking - because it's at least my impression that most of the worlds currently (in the official Honorverse) in the Alignment are Shell-Worlds)

So, sooner or later, some Core- or Shell-Worlds have the time to build a modern navy ... and then the GA is doomed.
(at least, if a - the SL hangs together; b - the Verge remains calm and under solarian control; c - the shell remains calm and under solarian control)

Remember the meyers sector. If one sector is planning to split away I will bet that there are others that are also actively planning for seperation. I will also bet that there will be additional sectors that will split off if they get the opportunity. So, forget C.

remember the 12 puppet systems of the alignment? forget B.

Remember Beowulf? forget the core worlds and A.

IMO the only question is if the SL hangs together long enough for honor to open fire on them.

Let's not forget the Hard Part: training a generation of spacers and officers that can not only operate the new systems, but do so with a winning attitude.
A lot of this reminds me of the first Gulf War: there were a lot of Iraqis with fairly decent equipment whose best levels of training were none too good by their opponent's satandards, vs a fair number of NATO troops with excellent equipment and excellent training. Put the NATO troopies in the Iraqi equipment, and the Iraqi troops in the NATO equipment. Who would have won? The NATO troops would have won anyway, although with higher casualties. The reason for this was that the NATO troops were better-trained and damn well knew it. There was no way they would allow themselves to lose. Is this what the successors to the ISLN will be training their spacers to do? Ive seen no suggestion of it thus far.

One of the many things about good or bad Science Fiction is that lots of times the Author paints himself into a corner. This is happening here.

The reality of it all is that the Sollie League will roll over the Grand Alliance in less than 5 years. Maybe less than 4 years. Consider Earth history...

The USA crushed the Empire of Japan in less than 4 years, less than 6 years if one counts the USA fleet build up before Pearl Harbor. The Japs had no chance.

They ran hog wild for about 12 months. Then it was the beginning of the end. The same thing will happen to the GA. You can not defeat the Sollies. Just too big.

The Japs were crushed. "All the Sollies have to do is build submarines and get good torps". The analog for them using the small ships they already have on hand.

Fight sneaky. Go for the space docks and ship yards. Just screw them up. With no docking facilities or ship building facilities, the GA is dead in the water.

Finding the Haven Bolt hole ship yards is necessary. Then, if necessary conduct kinetic strikes on GA planets. Go for broke. Fight dirty. Fight to win.

Also do not discount the Mesa bad guys. They could do the same and blame it all on the Sollies. The Mesa guys probably will. This will get very nasty.

The bottom line? The Sollies are the USA in 1940. The GA is the Japanese navy fleet. We know how that ended. The Japs lost very quickly and badly.

Just me. Respectfully. Jap means Japanese.

HB of CJ wrote:Also do not discount the Mesa bad guys. They could do the same and blame it all on the Sollies. The Mesa guys probably will. This will get very nasty.

For the purposes of this thread, Sigs explicitly excluded the MAlign from consideration:

Sigs wrote:The Mesan Alighnment is a non player for an unspecified reason... this means that they have gotten the Alliance to go to war with the League but due to change in circumstances they will lie low and will not interfere.

HB of CJ wrote:The bottom line? The Sollies are the USA in 1940. The GA is the Japanese navy fleet. We know how that ended. The Japs lost very quickly and badly.

The Empire of Japan is the wrong analogy. We never defeated the USSR and Warsaw Pact militarily; there is serious doubt that they would have been defeated. Where are the USSR and Warsaw Pact now? Many of the former Warsaw Pact nations are now members of NATO and the USSR no longer exists.

kzt wrote:I'm not kidding that there are hundreds of core worlds that have more industrial capability than the entire SEM, and most have 3-10 times the population of the entire Manticore home system.

So basically most any single core world is perfectly capable of fielding a force larger then the entire RMN if they are motivated to do so.

What are the odds that they can't fairly rapidly build 200 year old ship designs if they are motivated to do so?

I'm not sure that most core worlds could field a force larger than the entire current RMN if sufficiently motivated.
A lot of them could probably come uncomfortably close, given the time to do that, though. And the time factor would be significant

And Manticore has room to grow a fair amount more. A lot more, actually. Between Manticoran Silesia, and the Quadrant, The Star Empire has a lot of room to grow its capabilities, given time - and even discounting war with the League and the MAlign, a lot of reason to grow the RMN.

HB of CJ wrote:One of the many things about good or bad Science Fiction is that lots of times the Author paints himself into a corner. This is happening here.

The reality of it all is that the Sollie League will roll over the Grand Alliance in less than 5 years. Maybe less than 4 years. Consider Earth history...

The USA crushed the Empire of Japan in less than 4 years, less than 6 years if one counts the USA fleet build up before Pearl Harbor. The Japs had no chance.

They ran hog wild for about 12 months. Then it was the beginning of the end. The same thing will happen to the GA. You can not defeat the Sollies. Just too big.

The Japs were crushed. "All the Sollies have to do is build submarines and get good torps". The analog for them using the small ships they already have on hand.

Fight sneaky. Go for the space docks and ship yards. Just screw them up. With no docking facilities or ship building facilities, the GA is dead in the water.

Finding the Haven Bolt hole ship yards is necessary. Then, if necessary conduct kinetic strikes on GA planets. Go for broke. Fight dirty. Fight to win.

Also do not discount the Mesa bad guys. They could do the same and blame it all on the Sollies. The Mesa guys probably will. This will get very nasty.

The bottom line? The Sollies are the USA in 1940. The GA is the Japanese navy fleet. We know how that ended. The Japs lost very quickly and badly.

Just me. Respectfully. Jap means Japanese.

That analogy only goes so far.

For one, the USA was a whole lot more united both before and after Pearl Harbor than the League is. There was never any danger of states (sectors) and cities (systems) actively seceding and rebelling against the Federal Government in WW2, and nor was anybody seriously trying to make that happen. The League is incredibly loosely held together at best, and both the MAlign and GA are going to be actively trying to fragment the League into much smaller independent entities.
The League is ... sort of like a semi-feudal confederacy, rather than a nation-state. And both the GA and the MAlign are going to be hammering wedges into the cracks, if not filling them with explosives and setting things off.


Second, when WW2 started, Japan was more or less at its maximum potential.
The GA is nowhere close to its maximum potential. Remember, Haven's still got something like a thousand SD(P)s building, if not more. Sure, a Havenite SD(P) won't have Apollo or be as good as a Manticoran SD(P), but it's still going to be a lot better than anything the League can field for probably at least five years, if not longer. Plus, there's the Andermani, if need be. And, as I noted above, Manticore itself has a lot of room to grow and work with given time.

Speaking of that - the time issues. The USA could send information around in a matter of hours to days - a couple weeks for secure hardcopy to/from its furthest overseas bases. It takes months for information to travel through the League, and the GA is taking control of the wormhole network, further increasing the information time lag. The information time lag was rough enough over the relatively short distances that was the First Manticore/Peep War. Compared to the distances the League's going to be dealing with, that's spitting distance.


And it's important to note the GA isn't going for an outright military victory (they know that's functionally impossible against the League) - the GA is going for a League breakup into smaller entities that can then be negotiated with individually. That breakup of the League is already starting to happen.

If the League is a brick wall, the mortar is almost entirely rotten, and was weak to begin with. It's still hard to punch through a brick wall, but when the mortar is weak and rotten, it's not that hard to start prying bricks out, and every brick you take out makes getting more out easier.

Kytheros wrote:

kzt wrote:I'm not kidding that there are hundreds of core worlds that have more industrial capability than the entire SEM, and most have 3-10 times the population of the entire Manticore home system.

So basically most any single core world is perfectly capable of fielding a force larger then the entire RMN if they are motivated to do so.

What are the odds that they can't fairly rapidly build 200 year old ship designs if they are motivated to do so?

I'm not sure that most core worlds could field a force larger than the entire current RMN if sufficiently motivated.
A lot of them could probably come uncomfortably close, given the time to do that, though. And the time factor would be significant

And Manticore has room to grow a fair amount more. A lot more, actually. Between Manticoran Silesia, and the Quadrant, The Star Empire has a lot of room to grow its capabilities, given time - and even discounting war with the League and the MAlign, a lot of reason to grow the RMN.

I agree that the core worlds could field massive forces... in 50 or so years, similar to Manticore's build-up. Even Grayson took about a decade, with the best assistance possible.

IMO, there may be as few as seven SD-scale shipyards serving the SLN, with an average of four slips each. That's a production rate of ~7 SDs per year.

There may be a lot of maintenance capability - the ISLN had ~300 hulls filling those slips - but the equipment wouldn't be up to construction standards and they do need to carry that maintenance out, unless they plan to dump their currently active hulls. In fact, maintenance requirements may explain why the production rate would end up being so low.

There'll be another ten or fifteen SD building slips somewhere out there, with the SDFs who have them. As well as Frontier Fleet's entire infrastructure. Doesn't really add much, though, as they're all occupied by other needs.

The RMN was up to what, 20 or 30 a year at its peak? Haven's in the hundreds.

Time is the killer variable here. The League cannot retreat, cannot defend, cannot attack. They can't build fast enough to have a brand new fleet ready before a GA attack force arrives.

I think a better analogy for the SL is the British Empire. Virtually all of its colonies, domains and such are now independent sovereign nations, only loosely allied in a Commonwealth largely superseded by the United Nations. Or replaced with the European Union to some extent.

The League's future is irrelevance. It will simply break up and the pieces will go their own ways, some with fond memories and some without.

Simply excluding the proven nasty Mesa bad guys just for this thread does not signify. The evil Mesa bad guys exist. The next couple or three Honor books, if we are lucky enough to see them in print, should be very interesting. Patience they said. Difficult!

I will again point out that the leadership of the SEM was highly confident that, without the use of outside sources, they could rebuild their shipyards to be producing light ships in 2 years and SDs in 4 years. This is without any industrial base and with having to recruit and train an entire workforce.

Why do you think it would take 50 years for someone who has a fully intact modern industrial base and a large highly experienced workforce?