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Notes from Weber--SPOILER WARNING!!!

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Re: Notes from Weber--SPOILER WARNING!!!
Post by npadln   » Sat Jun 27, 2015 5:10 pm

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Hutch wrote:* Weber confirmed that there will be only two more books in the 'mainline' Honor Harrington saga, and guaranteedthat we will not be disappointed on how it turns out or Honor's involvement in the storyline.


I noticed you were vague about the actual storyline itself. The main players in this saga are Manticore, Haven, the Detweiler clan and the Solarian League. I'm guessing we will be bidding adieu to Honor with only the conclusion of the Solarian League's part in this saga as well, yes?
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Re: Notes from Weber--SPOILER WARNING!!!
Post by Hutch   » Sat Jun 27, 2015 7:42 pm

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npadln wrote:
Hutch wrote:* Weber confirmed that there will be only two more books in the 'mainline' Honor Harrington saga, and guaranteedthat we will not be disappointed on how it turns out or Honor's involvement in the storyline.


I noticed you were vague about the actual storyline itself. The main players in this saga are Manticore, Haven, the Detweiler clan and the Solarian League. I'm guessing we will be bidding adieu to Honor with only the conclusion of the Solarian League's part in this saga as well, yes?


That, the MWW did not declaim upon, and I think anyone asking him that would get his trademarked "tum-de-tum-de-dum". He did hint that maybe some stories farther down the timeline may be in the offing, but actual plot lines were not discussed (either then or today (Saturday)/

Only relevations today (not spoilers) was that the two chapters he re-wrote most often were Honor at Blackbird (Honor of the Queen) and the resulting carnage of Oyster Bay--he really didn't want to kill Andrew LaFollet off, but the chapter didn't work unless he did--the reason be (DW realized later) was that while he had killed off most of Honor's family (and Miranda and Farragut), they were mostly just names to us readers--with Andrew's death we (the readers) took a body shot along with Honor.

Or something like that...IIRC.
***********************************************
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Re: Notes from Weber--SPOILER WARNING!!!
Post by OrlandoNative   » Sat Jun 27, 2015 7:51 pm

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Kytheros wrote:
kzt wrote:That's about 3 orders of magnitude less than I was expecting...

I expect that the uninhabited areas of Beowulf will be taking a lot of damage too.
Also, Beowulf might get "lucky" and suffer mostly glancing damage strikes, rather than direct impacts.

It is, after all, unlikely that the SLN will be directly aiming at Beowulf, and the MAlign can't be too obvious about their meddling - Beowulf is close enough - and important enough, that the rest of the League, or at least the elites of the League, will be paying attention.

Not to mention that 3 more orders of magnitude would be, what, 10 billion? Allegedly, the system population is somewhat less than that... :D

It sounds sort of like another Yawata strike; just on a bigger city. More big pieces of orbital debris falling into the gravity well.

We know the SLN isn't likely to bombard the planet at long range, since a duplication of the incident that led to the Eridani Edict (and the required response to such an occurrence), isn't something the SL leadership - such as it is - could realistically survive.

The only odd thing here is that given how quickly Manticore tends to be able to debug and deploy hardware, and given that the secession vote isn't going to happen for another 2 months, that the system defenses wouldn't be in place to keep this from happening. For that matter, any system government that allegedly had the best interests of their citizens "at heart" wouldn't even *hold* the referendum *until* the new defenses were tested and ready - just in case there *was* a sudden, adverse reaction, out of their "league buddies".

Even though the folks "running" the SL appear to have the foresight of a bat, I can't really see them attacking *before* the vote. After all, a vote to secede is the only possible believable excuse they'd have for military intervention in Beowulf, since it's unlikely any committee investigating the allegations of "treason" could possibly conclude their findings within a couple of months, if the debate to even impanel such a committee took 2 weeks in and of itself.
"Yield to temptation, it may not pass your way again."
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Re: Notes from Weber--SPOILER WARNING!!!
Post by OrlandoNative   » Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:05 pm

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munroburton wrote:
Hutch wrote:If we knew where that (by now nearly 600-waller) fleet actually is (Kingsford has called them off, but I for one (small minority, I know) still am troubled on the timing of that), and we do not know where Beowulf is in regards to Tasmania....may be 200-300 LY away as far as we know.


Tasmania is implictly about halfway between Sol and Manticore.

In any case, the SLN still has lots of active wallers. Even with Filareta's 500 and the 600 at Tasmania, they still have 900 or so elsewhere, including Tsang's 100 which is already assembled and stationed close to Beowulf.

Ok, I'll bite. Just where from (and when) did these 600 SD's come to Tasmania? Remember, the discussion towards the last of ART between Doud, Teague, and the rest in the records storage room *doesn't* mention YET ANOTHER large fleet assembly outside the Core - it specifically mentions Crandall in the Meyers sector and Filareta's in the Tasmanian sector *only* as the only *recent* large deployments in the last 200 T-years or so.

Filareta's fleet of 400+ SD's *CAME* from Tasmania. It would seem to me that if there were an *additional* 600 SD's there, he would have just brought them along - if only as insurance. Especially if Tsang really was supposed to force her fleet through the Junction. It would make no sense keeping back so many ships so far from the target.

Also, allegedly there were about 3000 SD's in current status, the rest were mothballed in the Reserve. Putting 1/3 of the currently available ships in *one* location; considering the size of the League and all the potential volume that needed coverage, just in case, makes no sense. 300 or 400, maybe. 1000? No. The percentage is too high. Given that Tasmania isn't even in the Core, and, probably somewhere in the outer Shell, it's unlikely the system even *has* enough infrastructure to support so many ships for any significant length of time; even if it were a dedicated fleet base. Even Grendelsbane, the Manty fleet base system, only had about 90 SD's under construction or repair, and virtually none for defensive purposes, when the "Peeps" launched Thunderbolt. Given the SLN hasn't been on a war footing like Manticore and Haven have, it's unlikely outlying fleet bases have large numbers of SD's. Battlecruisers and smaller craft, maybe, but probably not even hundreds of them at any one time.

As for Tsang's ships, we don't actually know where they came from, or where they went to after leaving Beowulf's near space. 100 wallers would probably need a significant support structure. Given that Beowulf is a core world, it's *reasonable* that some SLN base system is at least somewhat nearby, but that's never been explicitly said.

Even Beowulf itself only built and supports 36 SD's. No doubt they could build - and support - more; but probably not without significant impact to their civilian infrastructure. Even Manticore, Haven, and the Andermani didn't build their large fleets in a single system or at a single base. Grayson did, but *they* only managed about 50-60 units.

So it's more likely that larger fleets of SD's are supported by systems that were explicitly developed as fleet bases, similar to Haven's "Bolthole".
"Yield to temptation, it may not pass your way again."
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Re: Notes from Weber--SPOILER WARNING!!!
Post by akira.taylor   » Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:27 pm

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OrlandoNative wrote:<SNIP>
Even though the folks "running" the SL appear to have the foresight of a bat, I can't really see them attacking *before* the vote. After all, a vote to secede is the only possible believable excuse they'd have for military intervention in Beowulf, since it's unlikely any committee investigating the allegations of "treason" could possibly conclude their findings within a couple of months, if the debate to even impanel such a committee took 2 weeks in and of itself.


The general idea, stated by ... someone important in the Solarian League (I don't recall who, unfortunately), was that the SLN would attack (err, "liberate") the system (from those evil Manticoran collaborators, out to do EVIL(tm)) (I think the justification was to deal with the threat the Terminus holds for the Core). Once the SLN controlled the system, the vote would happen, and show (surprise!) that Beowulf didn't really want to leave, after all (who would want to leave the League?). Once that was settled, the League judiciary would find that the right to leave had atrophied. So, the SLN can crush anyone else who tries to ditch (and has the nice example of Beowulf to threaten people with).

Now, the other point that comes up is that Honor is concerned the SLN won't realize how well defended Beowulf is, and try to attack (since the defenses aren't obvious enough - for the people who thought Manticore was undefended).

I hope that is clear?
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Re: Notes from Weber--SPOILER WARNING!!!
Post by munroburton   » Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:37 pm

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OrlandoNative wrote:Ok, I'll bite. Just where from (and when) did these 600 SD's come to Tasmania? Remember, the discussion towards the last of ART between Doud, Teague, and the rest in the records storage room *doesn't* mention YET ANOTHER large fleet assembly outside the Core - it specifically mentions Crandall in the Meyers sector and Filareta's in the Tasmanian sector *only* as the only *recent* large deployments in the last 200 T-years or so.

Filareta's fleet of 400+ SD's *CAME* from Tasmania. It would seem to me that if there were an *additional* 600 SD's there, he would have just brought them along - if only as insurance. Especially if Tsang really was supposed to force her fleet through the Junction. It would make no sense keeping back so many ships so far from the target.

The 600 were arriving at Tasmania after Filareta's 11th Fleet had departed from there. Rajampet was able to preposition dozens of squadrons on that side of the League's core. And from the start, they planned to send them in two separate waves, using the 600 to bolster 11th Fleet against any RMN forces returning to Manticore after its conquest.

As to the disposition of the League's fleets, clearly there is a maximum of ten(Filarta's being designated the Eleventh). There is also textev of half a dozen Reserve depots, logically also serving as fleet bases, in addition to the Sol system's Hyperion base. Suggests to me the minimum is seven fleets(not counting Filareta's), with wiggle room for up to three more used for administrative purposes(eg. RMN 5th Fleet is Logistics Command according to HoS).

All six depots are almost certainly within one month's travel of Sol. Beowulf is about 2 weeks out. The window of vulnerability Honor was worrying about was two months. Granted, there will be delays involved in getting the movement orders transmitted, but by now the entire SLN is at DefCon 1, so they should be quicker off the mark than Filareta was. My guess is that Tsang's force was assembled with detachments from Sol and the nearest two or three depots. Either that or it's basically half the Sol Home Fleet.

The numbers talked about by Battle Fleet's commanding officer for their active units were around two thousand, possibly after Spindle, but definitely before 2nd Manticore. On the other hand, a tiny minority of the Reserve is also going to be relatively modern(for the SLN) newbuilds which they could commission and integrate into current fleets without refitting, as futile as that would be.

I think Tasmania is a Frontier Fleet base which has been temporarily appropriated by Battle Fleet. No doubt its facilities are completely overwhelmed(at least they're not faced with repairing damaged units!), but Filareta's fleet train was quite substantial and the other units are probably self-sufficient for at least six months.

There's also been no indications whatsover that the Mandarins or Battle Fleet is planning to attack Beowulf. Kingsford was explict to Kolokoltsev about the impossibility of a successful military attack against GA wallers and Kolokeltsev talked his fellow Mandarins into leaving Beowulf alone whilst taking a hardline stance against other secessionists.

So I'm thinking those Beowulfan deaths are going to be the results of a grudge attack by the Alignment. The spider ship made its translation months ago, tossed a few kinetic impactors towards Beowulf and quietly left.

For that matter, could not a freighter or dispatch boat deploy KEWs from a parking orbit or even while outbound? How many other enemies within the League has Beowulf made? We're not going to get those answers for a while. :)
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Re: Notes from Weber--SPOILER WARNING!!!
Post by Theemile   » Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:49 pm

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OrlandoNative wrote:Ok, I'll bite. Just where from (and when) did these 600 SD's come to Tasmania? Remember, the discussion towards the last of ART between Doud, Teague, and the rest in the records storage room *doesn't* mention YET ANOTHER large fleet assembly outside the Core - it specifically mentions Crandall in the Meyers sector and Filareta's in the Tasmanian sector *only* as the only *recent* large deployments in the last 200 T-years or so.

Filareta's fleet of 400+ SD's *CAME* from Tasmania. It would seem to me that if there were an *additional* 600 SD's there, he would have just brought them along - if only as insurance. Especially if Tsang really was supposed to force her fleet through the Junction. It would make no sense keeping back so many ships so far from the target.

Also, allegedly there were about 3000 SD's in current status, the rest were mothballed in the Reserve. Putting 1/3 of the currently available ships in *one* location; considering the size of the League and all the potential volume that needed coverage, just in case, makes no sense. 300 or 400, maybe. 1000? No. The percentage is too high. Given that Tasmania isn't even in the Core, and, probably somewhere in the outer Shell, it's unlikely the system even *has* enough infrastructure to support so many ships for any significant length of time; even if it were a dedicated fleet base. Even Grendelsbane, the Manty fleet base system, only had about 90 SD's under construction or repair, and virtually none for defensive purposes, when the "Peeps" launched Thunderbolt. Given the SLN hasn't been on a war footing like Manticore and Haven have, it's unlikely outlying fleet bases have large numbers of SD's. Battlecruisers and smaller craft, maybe, but probably not even hundreds of them at any one time.

As for Tsang's ships, we don't actually know where they came from, or where they went to after leaving Beowulf's near space. 100 wallers would probably need a significant support structure. Given that Beowulf is a core world, it's *reasonable* that some SLN base system is at least somewhat nearby, but that's never been explicitly said.

Even Beowulf itself only built and supports 36 SD's. No doubt they could build - and support - more; but probably not without significant impact to their civilian infrastructure. Even Manticore, Haven, and the Andermani didn't build their large fleets in a single system or at a single base. Grayson did, but *they* only managed about 50-60 units.

So it's more likely that larger fleets of SD's are supported by systems that were explicitly developed as fleet bases, similar to Haven's "Bolthole".


Before all the unplesantness, Battle Fleet consisted of ~ 2000 active SDs, with another ~400 undergoing maintenance and another 8300 in reserve. Between Spindle and Manticore, nearly 500 have been removed from the active list. When describing the then already forming fleet at Tasmania, Kingsford's predessor stated that this was merely the first wave. If necessary, a second wave of 600 SDs, which were already in motion to Tasmania, could mop up the remaining defenses in Manticore.

Fillareta originally only had ~250 SDs in his Tasmania force, the rest came in division to squadron sized formations which happened to be visiting nearby systems and could be made available for this emergency.

Including Crandall's fleet and Tsang's fleet, around 1200 SDs were mobilized to wack Manticore - all supposedly without anyone noticing something strange was going on, and prior to any hostilities, in a Fleet which never went anywhere in the last 300 years.
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Re: Notes from Weber--SPOILER WARNING!!!
Post by Rakhmamort   » Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:02 pm

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I think that 10M dead would be courtesy of the MA sneaking in some forces during the SL attack/liberation of Beowulf. 'Wayward' missiles from the SL fleet hitting orbital facilities/planet at a good fraction of lightspeed.
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Re: Notes from Weber--SPOILER WARNING!!!
Post by Lunan   » Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:38 pm

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Hutch, thank you for the update. By any chance was there any other information regarding OTHER projects? Kenholden 2, safehold, prince roger, dahak, apoc troll 2?

Hutch wrote:So I am at Liberty Con in Chattanooga (2 hr drive for me), where the MWW is the Writer Guest of Honor (and Eric Flint is here with the 1632 Mini-con). DW had a session of "Weber Talks" (not what it was called, but that is what we got), where he held forth on a variety of topics, most have little to do with the Honorverse (but we did get his take on Islam, history thereof). But in the last 5 minutes of the session, he did let several things slip.

So I repeat again..SPOILER WARNING!! If you read past here and then say "Awww, I didn't want to know that now, tough patooties...You Have Been Warned.

Also, I'd ask that you take care not to drop this out of the thread except with Spoiler warnings....the way DW talked we won't see anything from Honor in 2015 and if there is anything in 2016, it'll be later than sooner, so let's be careful about spoiling anything for folks who don't like to know ahead of time.

That said.....




* House of LIes is taking longer than planned, both due to the MWW writing schedule and Bu9's ability to get together and hash out the detail work. He has not started his novelette for House of Lies yet, but he did reveal....

*...That it was supposed to be about the DuQuense plan and Mesan involvement with same, but that instead he currently plans to write two shorter novelettes focusing on the lives and times of Thomas Theisman and Eloise Prichart as they go from the Legislaturist Era to the Rob Pierre/Oscar St. Just era and ending the Tom asks Eloise to take over the Government.

(And no, I take no responsibility for any seismic shifts caused by rose-n-heather's reaction to this news.)


* Weber confirmed that there will be only two more books in the 'mainline' Honor Harrington saga, and guaranteedthat we will not be disappointed on how it turns out or Honor's involvement in the storyline. While giving nothing of the plot away, he did say (spoiler warning, remember....)

--About 10 Million Beowulfers are going to die. He originally planned that "Uncle Jacques" would be one of them, but may be back off that, since how much more can you piss Honor off than she already is?

--Eloise and Emperess Elizabeth are going to forge even closer ties between Haven and Manticore, by giving citizenship in one polity the same recognition in the other (i.e., if a Manticorian moves to a Havenite system, he will be treated the same as if he was a Havenite, and visa versa for Havenites in the SEM. He hasn't decided yet if the fleets will be merged or be more like a NATO-type relationship, but the pattern will be to ensure that whatever comes in the future, Haven and Manticore will face it together...as friends and allies.

(somebody please check on rose-n-heather's BP)

And that should be enough. Again, don't expect anything before the last half of 2016 and maybe 2017. Runs for Celery said nothing (at this time) about the movie deal. But we still have two days to go and he's doing a session with Eric Flint tomorrow morning, so who knows what may get dropped.....

Remember. "SPOILERS" if you use this information in other threads...or try to keep the conversation on this one.
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Re: Notes from Weber--SPOILER WARNING!!!
Post by Hutch   » Mon Jun 29, 2015 7:48 am

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Lunan wrote:Hutch, thank you for the update. By any chance was there any other information regarding OTHER projects? Kenholden 2, safehold, prince roger, dahak, apoc troll 2?


Luann, my apologies, I wasn't paying attention to the other series the MWW has as I haven't begun to read them to date.
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