Reparations

I don't see much if any. I think the territorial and political gains Manticore will achieve will be more then enough. Besides the Solarian League as we know it will be dead and gone, who will be footing the bill?

And Manticore or the GA can't just start annexing wormhole junctions as their own territory without pissing off a LOT of the systems around those junctions, especially the systems the wormholes are in. That would be seen as a blatant grab for land (stellar real estate)and a ploy to control the economies of the systems around the junctions.

Realistically, the GA wouldn't take any reparations since they are trying to set things up so the successor states have as little reason as possible to want to fight the SEM. Taking permanent possession of the scattered wormhole junctions would be seen as a F#%k you! by the rest of SL space.

I have had an interesting thought. I know RFC has mapped out what's going to happen, but say the MAlign's plan and the GAs doesn't work completely? What if the SL doesn't collapse completely? Say a large chunk managed to hold together, but it has a change of government (the Mabndarins die/are deposed. Haven redid it's constitution, why can't anyone else?) and immediately sues for peace, calling on its forces to stand down except for defensive purposes only and promises to end the war, accepting the fault for it and promises to deal with the SEM as an equal (which would be a huge step up since the SL never acknowledged any other stellar nation as its equal). And as a side note, it doesn't use force to keep its systems in it, so it's more of a equal federal arrangement and such.

What do you think the GAs reaction would be? Would it still try to break it up? How would it do that and not look like the bad guy in that instance? If the new government insists it won;y attack and there aren't any signs it is going to attack, other than being jerks, the GA has no good reason to stomp it into the ground and breaking it up. Militarily it wouldn't be a threat. Possible thread of hidden military research to catch up with the GA? Everyone and their dog is going to be doing that, even if they don't necessarily have the resources to do it. So attacking to shatter the state because it's a possible future threat is kind of stupid. Everyone is that kind of threat. It would be a huge economic boon to trade with the rump state and easier to deal with diplomatically. Economically the GA would be much larger and it's R&D is already in high gear, so it could maintain it's technological edge for quite awhile. The GA could hold onto the wormhole junctions, but again that would be counterproductive in the long run since any economic benefit would benefit Manticore/GA more than the systems around it (transit fees and the GAs ability to determine who can use it).

Zakharra, that is an interesting supposition.

I presume that after negotiations (with ample treecats in the room) that something could be worked out.

However, the MAlignment would not be pleased and would undoubtedly take the necessary steps to see that this happy state of affairs did not last long.

Plus we have seen few if any Sollie politicians with that level of popularity and skills. Even Barregos (sic) knows that he's going to have act as a Warloard to keep his sector safe, and he's the most capaable guy we've seen.

So we shall see, but I wouldn't bet a lot on it happening.

Hutch wrote:Zakharra, that is an interesting supposition.

I presume that after negotiations (with ample treecats in the room) that something could be worked out.

However, the MAlignment would not be pleased and would undoubtedly take the necessary steps to see that this happy state of affairs did not last long.

Plus we have seen few if any Sollie politicians with that level of popularity and skills. Even Barregos (sic) knows that he's going to have act as a Warloard to keep his sector safe, and he's the most capaable guy we'veseen.

So we shall see, but I wouldn't bet a lot on it happening.

*nods* It is an interesting proposition. As we've seen, there are SL naval officers that do have their heads screwed on straight. So there's nothing to say there aren't any politicians that are the same way. Plus the MAlign is due another visit from Murphy. No plan goes off perfectly and dealing with something the size of the SL, to think it would collapse completely is kind of hard. It's not hard to think that unknown events would see the rise of politicians and 'warlords'/warlords that aren't controlled by the MAlign. A competent naval officer and politicians could keep a large group of systems together with applied military force, diplomacy and other things. I think Governor Barregos is shown because of the astrological position the Maya sector is on; fairly close to Manticore/Haven/Torch. I was thinking of something on the other side of the SL.

However, I agree it's unlikely to happen. Unless RFC wants it to. ^_^

I can't see any scenario where the GA would seek reparations from what might be left of the Solarians; whether a newly democratic 'rump' or a defeated set of fragments. Honor and others have been pretty clear - they would be more than happy for peace, if only the Sollies admitted they had been duped. However for Mesa and the Mesa Alignment, I think it might be different. Mesa and all its allies (or alignees or whatever we should call them) will be defeated - and I do think that any wormholes and other extra-system asset will be taken by the GA.

Zakharra wrote:I have had an interesting thought. I know RFC has mapped out what's going to happen, but say the MAlign's plan and the GAs doesn't work completely? What if the SL doesn't collapse completely? Say a large chunk managed to hold together, but it has a change of government (the Mabndarins die/are deposed. Haven redid it's constitution, why can't anyone else?) and immediately sues for peace, calling on its forces to stand down except for defensive purposes only and promises to end the war, accepting the fault for it and promises to deal with the SEM as an equal (which would be a huge step up since the SL never acknowledged any other stellar nation as its equal). And as a side note, it doesn't use force to keep its systems in it, so it's more of a equal federal arrangement and such.

What do you think the GAs reaction would be? Would it still try to break it up? How would it do that and not look like the bad guy in that instance? If the new government insists it won;y attack and there aren't any signs it is going to attack, other than being jerks, the GA has no good reason to stomp it into the ground and breaking it up. Militarily it wouldn't be a threat. Possible thread of hidden military research to catch up with the GA? Everyone and their dog is going to be doing that, even if they don't necessarily have the resources to do it. So attacking to shatter the state because it's a possible future threat is kind of stupid. Everyone is that kind of threat. It would be a huge economic boon to trade with the rump state and easier to deal with diplomatically. Economically the GA would be much larger and it's R&D is already in high gear, so it could maintain it's technological edge for quite awhile. The GA could hold onto the wormhole junctions, but again that would be counterproductive in the long run since any economic benefit would benefit Manticore/GA more than the systems around it (transit fees and the GAs ability to determine who can use it).

If that happened, I am certain that Manticore would not press the war against the League. It would not be able to continue the fight without being seen as the aggressor, with cataclysmic results in its trade. Manticore had been seeking diplomatic solutions all along--urging the League to step back from the brink of war. Manticore did not really expect those negotiations to work, but if they did, Manticore certainly would have agreed to a diplomatic solution.

Fortunately for the purposes of the story, it doesn't seem likely to happen.

SWM wrote:If that happened, I am certain that Manticore would not press the war against the League. It would not be able to continue the fight without being seen as the aggressor, with cataclysmic results in its trade. Manticore had been seeking diplomatic solutions all along--urging the League to step back from the brink of war. Manticore did not really expect those negotiations to work, but if they did, Manticore certainly would have agreed to a diplomatic solution.

Fortunately for the purposes of the story, it doesn't seem likely to happen.

I'm sure that the Manticore would insist on prosecutions for war crimes as part of any negotiated settlement -- Mandarins, SLN commanders, OFS gendarmarie troops and commanders, etc.

I'm pretty sure that Manticore won't negotiate very hard until the SLN is significantly reduced in size; What Honor characterized as "too small to be a threat."

Weird Harold wrote:

SWM wrote:If that happened, I am certain that Manticore would not press the war against the League. It would not be able to continue the fight without being seen as the aggressor, with cataclysmic results in its trade. Manticore had been seeking diplomatic solutions all along--urging the League to step back from the brink of war. Manticore did not really expect those negotiations to work, but if they did, Manticore certainly would have agreed to a diplomatic solution.

Fortunately for the purposes of the story, it doesn't seem likely to happen.

I'm sure that the Manticore would insist on prosecutions for war crimes as part of any negotiated settlement -- Mandarins, SLN commanders, OFS gendarmarie troops and commanders, etc.

I'm pretty sure that Manticore won't negotiate very hard until the SLN is significantly reduced in size; What Honor characterized as "too small to be a threat."

The thing is, if the SL does give up and admit its faults while it is still large, Manticore runs into the problems that it will be seen as the aggressor since it would be attacking an enemy that is no longer attacking it and admits its fault in the previous attacks and is clearly not a military threat to it. If the SL does that and Manticore/GA keeps pressing the attacks, then they will undo pretty much all of their PR in the Core, Shell and Protectorates. It would be a very interesting plot point. Does Manticore keep attacking until the SL is trimmed down to the size it wants, or risk undoing everything they have worked for and focusing legitimate anger on themselves by refusing to accept any surrender when its clear the SL has no forces that can stop the SEM/GA? If the SL gave everything Manticore was demanding diplomatically, I think the GA would have to stop military actions and have to accept that their plan didn't work as intended.

SWM wrote:If that happened, I am certain that Manticore would not press the war against the League. It would not be able to continue the fight without being seen as the aggressor, with cataclysmic results in its trade. Manticore had been seeking diplomatic solutions all along--urging the League to step back from the brink of war. Manticore did not really expect those negotiations to work, but if they did, Manticore certainly would have agreed to a diplomatic solution.

Fortunately for the purposes of the story, it doesn't seem likely to happen.

Weird Harold wrote:I'm sure that the Manticore would insist on prosecutions for war crimes as part of any negotiated settlement -- Mandarins, SLN commanders, OFS gendarmarie troops and commanders, etc.

I'm pretty sure that Manticore won't negotiate very hard until the SLN is significantly reduced in size; What Honor characterized as "too small to be a threat."

Zakharra wrote:The thing is, if the SL does give up and admit its faults while it is still large, Manticore runs into the problems that it will be seen as the aggressor since it would be attacking an enemy that is no longer attacking it and admits its fault in the previous attacks and is clearly not a military threat to it. If the SL does that and Manticore/GA keeps pressing the attacks, then they will undo pretty much all of their PR in the Core, Shell and Protectorates. It would be a very interesting plot point. Does Manticore keep attacking until the SL is trimmed down to the size it wants, or risk undoing everything they have worked for and focusing legitimate anger on themselves by refusing to accept any surrender when its clear the SL has no forces that can stop the SEM/GA? If the SL gave everything Manticore was demanding diplomatically, I think the GA would have to stop military actions and have to accept that their plan didn't work as intended.

Remember that the MAlign also wants the SL broken up, and has been working clandestinely toward that end for a long time. Their plan was to weaken the structure a bit here, a bit there and some elsewhere so when the time came they could give it a push and it would come apart at the seams, with the most critical parts falling into the RF's hands almost "by accident." Then they've got a sledgehammer to break up anything that refuses to follow the plan.

At this point, the SL can't stop the disintegration of their protectorate and client state system if they wanted to, although they have no idea (yet) how bad it's going to get. They also won't be able to stop the Shell systems the want out either.

Have you ever watched a building being taken down by explosives? One minute it's standing there, the next minute the thing just collapses.

JohnRoth wrote:Remember that the MAlign also wants the SL broken up, and has been working clandestinely toward that end for a long time. Their plan was to weaken the structure a bit here, a bit there and some elsewhere so when the time came they could give it a push and it would come apart at the seams, with the most critical parts falling into the RF's hands almost "by accident." Then they've got a sledgehammer to break up anything that refuses to follow the plan.

At this point, the SL can't stop the disintegration of their protectorate and client state system if they wanted to, although they have no idea (yet) how bad it's going to get. They also won't be able to stop the Shell systems the want out either.

Have you ever watched a building being taken down by explosives? One minute it's standing there, the next minute the thing just collapses.

I'm afraid that is irrelevant to this discussion. The question was quite explicitly posed as a "what if" situation. We all agree that it isn't going to happen. That does not disallow speculation on what would or should result if it did happen.