Seeds of Assassination

I think you're greatly overestimating the likelihood of an assassination attempt.

http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/en ... gton/240/1

Although successful assassinations of monarchs -- and of other members of the royal family -- have been rare, attempted assassinations are not unheard of. Most of those attempted assassinations are detected and defeated or deterred well short of execution by the Queen's Own and other civilian and paramilitary organizations like Palace Security and a civilian police SWAT teams. The primary reason for sting ship escorts and heavy weapons are that the technology available in the Honorverse provides all sorts of avenues whereby attacks -- especially suicide attacks -- can be carried out. For example, one of the attempted assassinations which was thwarted consisted of a suicidal attempt to ram the monarch's armored air limousine with a cargo shuttle. It failed because the sting ships were available to intercept and shoot it down. Handheld anti-air weapons do not have the same kill probability as specialized fighter aircraft, and even if they did, would be useless for intercepting such an attack while the monarch was in flight, since no one on the ground would be able to keep up with them or to provide a moving bubble of protection.

It's pretty clear from that that countermeasures have long been devised and put in place to stop such attacks.

Cthia--

If the Alignment really wanted to assassinate someone, they could probably do it. It might take several attempts, and it might take lots of money and preparation, and it would definitely leave far too much evidence, and it would cause huge amounts of problems for them, but if they really wanted to, they could do it. No matter who the target is.

It is not really possible to stop every assassin, if they have enough time, determination, and resources. And the Alignment has enough of all of those.

But they don't want to do it, and certainly not under those conditions.

The Alignment tries to work behind the scenes, without leaving evidence of their existence, let alone their involvement. It would be nearly impossible to kill Empress without leaving far more evidence than they want. And, truly, just killing the Empress would not give them enough benefits to be worth the cost and consequences.

Just or the sake of argument, let us say that the assassination succeeded. Where does that leave the MAlign? If all they get is Elizabeth and possibly Justin, they now have to contend with Roger, who has lost his Grandfather, Mother and Father, an uncle and a cousin and an "uncle" (Cromarty) to assassins. The Monarch has changed but the government most probably has not. Roger is not stupid. He will rely on the same people his Mother did: Emily, Honor, Hamish and Willy.

Again, for the sake of argument, let us stipulate that the MAlign manages to kill the whole family. Who does that leave? Why, now they have to contend with a certain Admiral by the name of Henke. With a huge grudge and the same government.

At what point does anyone see any advantage for the MAlign in trying to assassinate anyone in Manticore?

KNick wrote:Just or the sake of argument, let us say that the assassination succeeded. Where does that leave the MAlign? If all they get is Elizabeth and possibly Justin, they now have to contend with Roger, who has lost his Grandfather, Mother and Father, an uncle and a cousin and an "uncle" (Cromarty) to assassins. The Monarch has changed but the government most probably has not. Roger is not stupid. He will rely on the same people his Mother did: Emily, Honor, Hamish and Willy.

Again, for the sake of argument, let us stipulate that the MAlign manages to kill the whole family. Who does that leave? Why, now they have to contend with a certain Admiral by the name of Henke. With a huge grudge and the same government.

At what point does anyone see any advantage for the MAlign in trying to assassinate anyone in Manticore?

Actually, it would be Michael or Caitrin. Now if Michael were dead, Caitrin probably would abdicate in favor of Michelle, once she could be recalled and prepped.

dreamrider

...But let's see the way that the top tier of the MAlign really considers top level assassinations.

Recall how the assassination of Klaus H. was considered, and the pros, cons, and RISKS were considered. Then Albrecht tossed it, despite a personal inclination in favor.

They simply aren't going to attempt this in the current climate. Too risky to the overall plan, too prone to TLOUC (that's Murphy's French cousin.)

dreamrider

dreamrider wrote:...But let's see the way that the top tier of the MAlign really considers top level assassinations.

Recall how the assassination of Klaus H. was considered, and the pros, cons, and RISKS were considered. Then Albrecht tossed it, despite a personal inclination in favor.

They simply aren't going to attempt this in the current climate. Too risky to the overall plan, too prone to TLOUC (that's Murphy's French cousin.)

dreamrider

In the case of the royal family they don't just have speculation they also have the evidence of how well the assassination of Roger worked for Haven to add to the don't do it side. It worked out so well for them.

Killing either Wintons or Mayhews would merely cheese off the respective star kingdoms but would do quite little to derail their war efforts - but would do a lot to motivate them to greater efforts and increased social cohesion.

Killing Pritchart? Might mess up the RH something severe. Either Theisman would need to step in (against his own wishes) or someone with as much dedication to restoring the ideals of the Republic AND fighting the good fight beside the GA would need to step up.

BobfromSydney wrote:Killing either Wintons or Mayhews would merely cheese off the respective star kingdoms but would do quite little to derail their war efforts - but would do a lot to motivate them to greater efforts and increased social cohesion.

Killing Pritchart? Might mess up the RH something severe. Either Theisman would need to step in (against his own wishes) or someone with as much dedication to restoring the ideals of the Republic AND fighting the good fight beside the GA would need to step up.

Except that the likelihood of the MAlign hitting both Elizabeth and Eloise is infinitesimal, if it even exists - and now they're not just contending with the Republic or the Star Empire. They're contending with the Grand Alliance, and that is a whole 'nother kettle of fish.

If, God forbid, they do manage to take out Pritchart - which, given that this is me we're talking about, I'm not even bothering to think will happen - the Republic is not without its own revolutionary stalwarts, whether they're named Tom Theisman or not. Tourville would be a government disaster and is best left where he is, but there's still Leslie Montreau, Denis LePic, Linda Trenis... and they wouldn't be standing alone.

Functionally, the guiding council of the GA is Harrington, White Haven, Theisman, Tourville, Pritchart, Winton, Grantville, Hemphill, LePic, Montreau, Foraker, Mayhew, Yanakov, and Winton-Henke, which doesn't even mention what Estelle Matsuko could bring to bear if she was needed badly enough to be recalled from Talbott. That is a lot of political firepower, and it's all pointed in the same direction.

Frankly, I think taking out any one of the above - which is about all that would be possible - would be the equivalent of landing an arrow in someone's butt. Desperately painful, definitely bleeding, but certainly not fatal and more likely to enrage than incapacitate. All in all, it would be a remarkably stupid move on their part.

But hey, they're welcome to go ahead and give it a shot. I think all they'll reap is a world of hurt, but what do I know?

roseandheather wrote:

BobfromSydney wrote:Killing either Wintons or Mayhews would merely cheese off the respective star kingdoms but would do quite little to derail their war efforts - but would do a lot to motivate them to greater efforts and increased social cohesion.

Killing Pritchart? Might mess up the RH something severe. Either Theisman would need to step in (against his own wishes) or someone with as much dedication to restoring the ideals of the Republic AND fighting the good fight beside the GA would need to step up.

Except that the likelihood of the MAlign hitting both Elizabeth and Eloise is infinitesimal, if it even exists - and now they're not just contending with the Republic or the Star Empire. They're contending with the Grand Alliance, and that is a whole 'nother kettle of fish.

If, God forbid, they do manage to take out Pritchart - which, given that this is me we're talking about, I'm not even bothering to think will happen - the Republic is not without its own revolutionary stalwarts, whether they're named Tom Theisman or not. Tourville would be a government disaster and is best left where he is, but there's still Leslie Montreau, Denis LePic, Linda Trenis... and they wouldn't be standing alone.

Functionally, the guiding council of the GA is Harrington, White Haven, Theisman, Tourville, Pritchart, Winton, Grantville, Hemphill, LePic, Montreau, Foraker, Mayhew, Yanakov, and Winton-Henke, which doesn't even mention what Estelle Matsuko could bring to bear if she was needed badly enough to be recalled from Talbott. That is a lot of political firepower, and it's all pointed in the same direction.

Frankly, I think taking out any one of the above - which is about all that would be possible - would be the equivalent of landing an arrow in someone's butt. Desperately painful, definitely bleeding, but certainly not fatal and more likely to enrage than incapacitate. All in all, it would be a remarkably stupid move on their part.

But hey, they're welcome to go ahead and give it a shot. I think all they'll reap is a world of hurt, but what do I know?

First, allow me to apologize for starting a fire and running. I've got so many fires burning that Smokey the Bear is permanently stationed outside my home!

I love your analysis Rose. You have been hanging out with Estelle haven't you?

I really thought that eliminating the two main ingredients of the Alliance would lead to its demise. Elizabeth and Pritchart, I imagine are still fighting with a large number of die-hard constituents who hate the Alliance, or just hate the impotence their political clout has taken because of it. Gerald Younger. My take on it is that the Alliance is still internally fragile enough that a Harrington-like grand strategy could topple it just like the SL. And if the Alliance crumbles, how long before these common enemies are exchanging warheads again?

Who could replace Pritchart? Not Theisman, for obvious reasons, and he's too important where he is. I don't know about Leslie Montreau but Denis LePic strikes me as being too...pansy, for that position. Linda Trennis, OTOH, is frightening.

I would argue that if Elouise were assassinated in any fashion that was IDENTIFIABLE to the public as an assassination (and most of the nano attacks have been pretty splashy and clear in overt intent), then Thom Theisman would probably be the clear popular choice for successor, by public acclimation.

The outrage in the Republic would not rise to the levels that it would in Manticore over a hit on Elizabeth, or in Grayson over a strike at the Protectorship (or the Champion), but it would be overwhelming enough to force him to take the job and steer the tsunami.

Contrary to what some seem to think, thanks to his own work of the last 10 years, Theisman would not be indispensable to the RHN, if he were called to higher responsibilities.

dreamrider