Talbott Cluster Joining SKM/SEM

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:With the inclusion of the Talbot Cluster, does anyone else get the feeling that we are now seeing the SKM in its pre-SL infancy before the SL became corrupt trying to get a handle on the wayward new systems reluctantly "joining" without their full commitment? OFS was formed to help get a handle on it. Will the SKM/SEM suffer from the same pitfalls? I can't believe the SEM would want to even take on such a responsibility. In a time of war, can the SEM fulfill its duties to the Talbot Cluster? An entity like the SL could have caused a lot of problems in the Talbot Cluster during war. The MA certainly will. A lot of the SEM's resources will be drained. There are questions on the horizon.

I know the current trilateral alliance can handle the responsibility if push comes to shove. But I didn't think the alliance with Haven was anything near permanent. That is not to say the two would divert back to being enemies, but is a permanent alliance practical? Your war is my war??? Your wars are my wars??? Systems don't operate in a vacuum. There are its citizens and governments. Citizens and governments are the two entities that are more formidable than war.

Everyone in the Talbott Quarter that chose to join is doing so because they really wanted to do so, to the extent of adjusting their laws to match the standards set by Manticore. Even there not every system chose to do what was required and those dissenting systems were left alone. Those systems that chose to join are now a full part of the SEM and there is no question that the SEM will fulfill its responsibilities there.

The more open question is in the part of Silesia where Manticore gained responsibility. Even there nothing like OFS is needed, because the inducements to join are economic support and not military threat (beyond the historical activities of the Navy).

I thought that there were hints in the books of something like modern Europe with mutual defense treaties and freedom of movement between Manticore, Haven and others.

That was also the case in the early existence of the League before the League became corrupt. Piracy patrols was one of the reasons why OFS was created, at a time the League was an upstanding entity.

I suspect that the early SL was overwhelmed with its vast area of responsibility. Perhaps because of biting off more then they were strategically prepared to chew. Then OFS was formed but the daunting strategic and tactical limitations of the task still existed. So what happened? My guess is that the officers on the spot began to take bribes for giving certain systems precedence. 'Hey, we simply cannot be everywhere at once. So, pay us and we will hang out in your system more.' Or something like that.

penny wrote:That was also the case in the early existence of the League before the League became corrupt. Piracy patrols was one of the reasons why OFS was created, at a time the League was an upstanding entity.

I suspect that the early SL was overwhelmed with its vast area of responsibility. Perhaps because of biting off more then they were strategically prepared to chew. Then OFS was formed but the daunting strategic and tactical limitations of the task still existed. So what happened? My guess is that the officers on the spot began to take bribes for giving certain systems precedence. 'Hey, we simply cannot be everywhere at once. So, pay us and we will hang out in your system more.' Or something like that.

But the League Government also had a perverse financial incentive to expand their "protection".

They were only funded by specific fees and duties on shipping, but could extract "reimbursement" and extra fees from their protectorates for that protection -- and the interstellar corps they got into bed with. And so they're incentivized to maximize that revenue by maximizing the number of protectorates. Which, over time, yes corrupts and leads to incentives for individual OFS management to ensure that there are always more worlds needing their "protection".
(And since they didn't expect to actually need to seriously defend those new protectorates, after all who would attack the Invincible League, and weren't planning to invest government dollars into actually making things better on them, the expansion was always a benefit to government net revenue.


Manticore doesn't have that same incentive. In fact, arguably in the inverse. The more worlds join the Empire the more thinly the massive funding source that is the Junction has to get spread. And their government has access to normal tax methods and doesn't need to own more systems to boost its funding. (And, unless/until it gets vastly more corrupted those new systems are going to be, at least short to medium term, money sinks for the Empire's government -- because they are going to spend to put in defenses, and improve education, and boost their tech base. Thing that bring them up to Manticore's level and, much longer term, boost their economic value to the Empire. But there's less personal incentive to take over a new world this year if it doesn't provide benefit for decades and decades, after you're no longer in office)

That lack of funding incentive certainly doesn't make it impossible for some future Manticoran government to turn expansionist, or even conquistador. But it should make it less likely.

(And the folks setting up the rules for the fledgling Empire today have the bad example of how the League slowly went down its path over the centuries -- so they'll surely attempt to structure things to avoid that outcome for the Empire. Which doesn't mean it won't find its own new mistakes to make; but should further tend to keep it from developing an OFS-style problem)

tlb wrote:Not every system chose to join, because they did not want their oligarchies disturbed. The wiser people realized that their percentage share of the wealth would end up being a number lower than currently, but they would still be very well off.

The books make it clear that the pre-existing business arrangements (mainly oligarchies) were not investing enough in the economies; but as part of membership Manticore promised tax breaks to outside investors that partnered with local businesses and this should greatly expand the local economies to the benefit of everyone (not just the elites). Outside investors from Manticore have much more capital than anyone local could put up.

A bit more the oligarchies themselves didn't want to be disturbed. What we saw in the way of separatist movement like Norbert (spelling) was ultimately going to happen anyway - or try too- from one group or another trying to take over. But you're right, a lot of people at various levels of the separate systems saw Manticore in a positive way for two reasons. 1st because- if you did the research- Manticore was a vastly differnt operation than OFS. OFS shows up, takes over, brings in Transtellars to help suck money and power out of the local population. Between the OFS governors and bureaucracy and the military might of Frontier Fleet and OFS planetary troops, your in little better than a dictatorship which just keeps adding punitive and conficationary legislation to keep the population who isn't willing to pay them off under control. 2nd because Manticore does have a reputation and history of dealing -forcefully- with problems like piracy and is operating with a consistent approach to both it's own legal systems and any system that is a trading partner. We keep being told in the series that Manticore has been a leader in the development (and enforcement) of interstellar trade law.

What we do see in Talbott is multi-fold as far as what happens to the systems. We know that not everybody close to the group that went with the initial petition to join SEM was interested. The ones who we are shown making the biggest problems with the terms of what Manticore would accept -and did not end up joining for one reason or another- also didn't "quite" get the anticipated free right their politicos though they would have. Some figured that they would get the protection of the RMN and various trade benefits by being in the same area...not happening in the "we will benefit but not have to give up anything" way they expected. SEM was making SEPERATE trade agreements but not extending any investment opportunities or other benefits. The protection of RMN would be only really as an adjunct of anti-piracy/commerce protection and since the systems that did ratify the agreement would convert to SEM law and legal systems that should take a bite out of what the non-member systems could hope to squeeze of of the trade as far as payoffs, etc. Of course we now know that OFS is disbanding and -we hope- that most of the corrupt people involved with be removed (called home to the SL) or otherwise be pushed out one way or another.
The investment terms being given by Manticore are VERY good and clearly designed to allow the locals populations to improve their economies. Then there are things like Prolong....the way I understand it, any Manticorian citizen gets prolong (don't recall any limitations within the SKM or SEM. The biggest impediment is getting production in each system up and running along with enough doses from the original planets of SKM to provide the treatments to those who are still young enough to be able to get them. I also don't recall any cost to Manticore citizen to receive Prolong.

Silesia is a differnt consideration. Manticore and The Andermani essential ended up seeing that the only way to clean up the cesspool that Silesia had become was to take over both the Confederacy and all of the systems involved and do the clean-up themselves. Not sure what the terms the Andermani imposed on their portion but they have been doing that one way or another for a long time and 1st they would bring in their legal system and law enforcement and make it stick. Manticore we have a wider view of what will happen which is the various systems will be able to work up to citizenship over time (I think it was 50years) but they are not quite applying the same level of military backed governance that Andermani are likely to take. They will, however, try to make short work of anybody who gets caught trying to break the new legal system (which is primarily the same as the rest of the SEM) and clean out a backlog of corrupt politicians who WILL screw up by trying to maintain their power and incomes by breaking SEM laws. It was noted in at least a couple of places that on both sets of systems in the now reapportioned Silesia, there will be local separatists or revolutionary groups who will take this as a way to to take control of at least their own planet. It will be messy but unlikely that either Manticore or the Andermani are going to move off into bloodbaths of dissenters just to make the point that either Empire is their to stay.

Brigade XO wrote: Of course all the people scheming and manipulating figured they would get their own personal sweetheart deals out of Manticore to remain in power while willfully ignoring what OFS would have done to them WHEN (not if) the SL moved in. Note that there was a transition period to full membership (I think 50 years) but everybody was going to have to work within the same set of Manticoran laws and legal system.

And don't forget Firebrand going around the systems stirring up trouble and trying to get the oligarchies to stand firm. If it weren't for the violence in Split and the hold-outs in Montana, the annexation might have been even quicker. And possibly even bigger: New Tuscany for example managed to stay out.

mattelmhurst wrote:Hi--I'm looking for a little help. I'm re-reading the Honorverse books, and seem to have missed one, but can't figure out which. I'm now reading "Shadow of Saganami," and the Talbott Cluster plebiscite to join Manticore has already happened. Can someone tell me: in what book do we find Bernardus van Dort scurrying around putting together the plebiscite? Or is my memory just shot? Thanks for any guidance anybody can offer. --Matt

thank you to everyone who replied. --Matt

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:Though that request might have come from the Manticore side.

Up until Talbott Manticore was able to more or less slot its new acquisitions into the existing Star Kingdom of Manticore, as round trip transit/messaging times to Trevor's Star or Lynx aren't significantly different than to Gryphon. (Lynx being a bit longer as you have to go through the terminus and then several more LY through hyper -- but not crazy long).

Round-trip times to the Lynx Terminus are the same as to any other terminus and roughly to Gryphon / Manticore-B. Manticore-A is about 7 light-hours from the Junction and 13 from Manticore-B. We don't know the distances from their termini to San Martin, Basilisk, or Beowulf, but those should be around the 5 light-hour mark too. That would put the one-way messaging using the Hermes System at about 15 minutes.

But the Lynx System is about 4 light-years away from the terminus. That's too far for the Hermes buoy system and would be too slow anyway at a mere 62c. A ship that reached the Delta band would travel faster, so the shortest communication would be using couriers. If they could reach an average of 3000c, the trip could be done in about half a day, but they won't be able to because even a 750-gravity courier would need 6.8 hours to accelerate to its max speed and that much again to decelerate, plus the time necessary to climb up and down the bands. Call it about one day for a one-way trip carrying mail, instead of 15 minutes.

Or about 100x longer.

Compare that with the Quadrant, which probably has a one-way time of 5 to 10 days. That's an order of magnitude more again. It doesn't make governance impractical -- we managed to have large countries with delays like that well into the railroad era -- but it would have shown that a different model might be in order.

Talbott, on the other hand, caused Manticore to restructure and create a Star Empire of Manticore of which the SKM and Talbott Quadrant were members. The concerns that led to that probably came up in discussions almost as soon as Manticore got the initial inquires about various Talbott systems potentially joining; and those concerns might have driven a request from Manticore's side for Talbott to organize and enter as a unit instead of as separate systems.

Right. But since that portion was skipped in the books, we don't know how exactly it developed.

It's also possible that the members of the Rembrant Trade Union did vote to join as a bloc, which prompted either or both sides to wonder if an even bigger bloc wouldn't be more interesting.

I think Bernardus van Dort was savvy enough to realise that each system alone wasn't interesting to the SKM. None of them had much value. Some of the members of the RTU may have been richer than Lynx, but Lynx had something none of them did: proximity to the terminus. Moreover, shipping would be cumbersome if only a handful were admitted to the Kingdom and were sparse. So the marginal gain for the SKM would be too small to admit each of the new systems as a unit. However, adding billions of people across a dozen star systems would be a huge market, plus it would facilitate local governance and military presence.

As I recall, there is a discussion on the tech level of the various planets and some are ahead of Grayson and some were behind. Grayson had at least their version of a heavy cruiser. Additionally given the rank structure of Rembrant I'd say they have at least a couple squadrons of ships so they've at least got to have heavy cruisers since it is implied they are ahead of Grayson along with San Miguel.

ywing14 wrote:As I recall, there is a discussion on the tech level of the various planets and some are ahead of Grayson and some were behind. Grayson had at least their version of a heavy cruiser. Additionally given the rank structure of Rembrant I'd say they have at least a couple squadrons of ships so they've at least got to have heavy cruisers since it is implied they are ahead of Grayson along with San Miguel.

Being better than what the GSN had prior to the Treaty with Manticore is a very low bar. Those cruisers were firing rocket-powered missiles, something the RMN hadn't done even in the 1530s. I wouldn't be surprised if an old-style LAC were able to take on an old Grayson cruiser. The SCN frigates probably could.

And yet that low bar may be high enough for a Verge system like the Cluster was.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Being better than what the GSN had prior to the Treaty with Manticore is a very low bar. Those cruisers were firing rocket-powered missiles, something the RMN hadn't done even in the 1530s. I wouldn't be surprised if an old-style LAC were able to take on an old Grayson cruiser. The SCN frigates probably could.

And yet that low bar may be high enough for a Verge system like the Cluster was.

That's a bit of an overstatement. It was only their point defense missiles that used reaction drives -- because "he discovered that their smallest impeller missile massed over a hundred and twenty tons. That was fifty percent more than a Manticoran ship-killer, much less a point defense missile, which explained why they had to accept shorter-ranged, less capable counter missiles" [HotQ]

So they had impeller powered anti-ship missiles. They were just big bastards, so they could carry fewer tubes and less total missiles than a modern (for 1900ish) ship of similar size.

But yeah, anybody with access to even really old surplus SLN tech is going to have many warship systems that are more modern than the pre-alliance GSN had. (Most folks won't be as good at getting the most out of what they have; but what they have will have a much higher baseline)

Each of the systems that were involved in the initial application to join the Empire had something even if a some obsolete SLN tech LACS as the system that had the two ExPeep warships making passes though it. Some, such as Spindle and Montana and Rembrandt had products which were being traded with interstellar shipping. Van Dort put the package together highlighting the strengths of the existing systems and the potential of the less developed ones as just that- a package that was already at least intermittently tied together by the RTU. Not to be discounted, if not mentioned in bold type to Manticore, was that this area was about to become massively more interesting to Office of Frontier Security and a major factor by van Dort's thinking was that it gave Manticore a single block to curtail what most of the applicant systems understood was to be their ultimate fate since OFS was slowly but inexorably working it's way to them. Defense in depth if you will.
Ok, Manticore is going to have expenses involved in taking on these systems but there are a lot of benefits. Sets of populations which will be cooperating in the defense of the systems along with RMN etc and a new multi-system set of reasonably developed planets with some export but would also be a great new market for SEM products. It also has in the short term the benefit of boosting the from initial projections of the traffic both ways though Lynx since it's just two transits to Beowulf and near the economic centers of the League to push trade though Lynx even of exports from systems with ties (even if only as OFS protectorates) since the people who are running freighters are going to go with lower cost of that is what the Lynx terminus provides them in routing that way to existing customers.

Brigade XO wrote: Not to be discounted, if not mentioned in bold type to Manticore, was that this area was about to become massively more interesting to Office of Frontier Security and a major factor by van Dort's thinking was that it gave Manticore a single block to curtail what most of the applicant systems understood was to be their ultimate fate since OFS was slowly but inexorably working it's way to them. Defense in depth if you will.

Why would this be important to Manticore?

Stopping the OFS may have been an interesting positive idea, but getting into conflict with the League was never the goal. And the OFS getting all the way to Lynx would make no difference to the old SKM: Lynx was at that point a member system of the kingdom so would never come under the sway of OFS. And OFS would be much more likely to pass up a single system than a few dozen in the Cluster.

Also remember the OFS, being corrupt and all, was not the driver of this problem. The transstellars were. None of them would find foothold in the Lynx system inside the SKM and even corrupt business people might realise that they would get more by just doing regular business with the SKM than trying to take over Lynx alone. The value of Lynx would be that it is part of the SKM, rather than any intrinsic value of the system.

That does not mean there would be no conflict. Some stupid manager may bribe the OFS and FF to take over the terminus so they could charge fees (despite the SL being signatory of the protocol of free transits of wormholes), because the Manties couldn't be anything other than neobarbs, right? But this conflict would be much further in the future, at which time any issues with Haven should have long been in the stern-view sensors.

Moving the SEM borders closer to where the OFS and FF presence was (the Madras Sector) would be seen as a minus, not a plus.