Federation Plans

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:If the proposal is talking about equality in junction use, that is terrible. It is as bad as giving your friends and family free food in your restaurant. It is a business. You don't mix business with pleasure! The part about coupons was my facetiousness acting up again. (I hate it when it does that.) But there was a bit of reality involved. Lower junction fees would be bad enough. But completely free? Heck, Beowulf doesn't get that and Manticore isn't too happy with their deal either, again, according to HoS.

It's not. Not even Manticore-flagged merchant ships transit for free. They simply pay a reduced fee, which was extended to all allied governments in the Manticore Alliance during either wars with Haven and was likely extended to Haven too during the Grand Alliance.

So it's not like giving free food at the restaurant, but instead like giving them friends & family discount while they also give you similar discounts at their shoe shop and grocery store.

But you just can't do that. It isn't good business. Before long, your friends and family will outnumber your regular customers. Manticore's merchant fleet presently enjoys an advantage over the Galaxy. It allowed them to corner the market in the first place. This proposal would level the playing field. You don't corner the market then give it up.

There is no way Haven should be given the same fees as Manticoran registered transits. Huh?

OMG! What is that hideous noise?!

It is King Roger spinning even faster in his grave. First, Project Gram is in Haven territory, and now, Haven may get a "groupon card" to use at the junction.

cthia wrote:But you just can't do that. It isn't good business. Before long, your friends and family will outnumber your regular customers. Manticore's merchant fleet presently enjoys an advantage over the Galaxy. It allowed them to corner the market in the first place. This proposal would level the playing field. You don't corner the market then give it up.

"Did you exchange / a walk on part in a war / for a lead role in a cage?" - Pink Floyd, "Wish you were here"

It is a good business if it grows the pie. No one is talking about selling the service below cost, just at a discount. You'll end up with a lower Average Selling Price (ASP) and possibly a lower profit margin, but you'll also end up with a bigger profit in absolute terms. The margin might not actually be lower if economies of scale kick in: in the case of the Junction, it has a very high fixed operating cost, but very low incremental cost. The cost of having the forts there, the stations where Astro Control is located, and the majority of customs cutters is mostly fixed and therefore won't go up with bigger traffic. So if Havenite-flagged shipping picks up and adds traffic, the vast majority of that increase in revenue is direct profit. As I said, the Trevor's Star and Gregor lanes are most likely not at saturation, so it's better to allow more Havenite and Andermani ships to transit and pay the fee than have fewer of them.

Now, you're right that you can't think about the Junction in isolation. It has to be thought of as a whole, first for Manticore itself. If Havenite-flagged shipping picks up, is that to the detriment of Manticore shipping? Are they competing for the same markets? My feeling is that they are only partially competing: some of the same markets, but the market is big enough that they can both increase participation without cannibalising each other. Moreover, they're not the only competitors in the market: there are all those Solarian-flagged ships that would be the target of the competition. And this is again assuming a zero-sum game, which it isn't: it's entirely possible for everyone to keep or grow their absolute revenues and a new participant to enter the market.

And then second it's the region. What's better for Manticore, that their neighbours and ally prosper or that someone else does? Or that no one else does? Manticore was only responsible for a third of the shipping in the League and that was only for a portion of the way. So if you have now more offer for ships that can transit the Junction with less cost, that means more opportunities will shift to the region's ships, to the detriment of Kolokainos and other Solarian-flagged ships. Having Haven and the Andermani gain a bigger piece of the pie is good for Manticore, because it keeps them stable and friendly. Not to mention that having both of them be stable and friendly makes it far less likely for one of them to try something in the future.

This intangible benefit may be big enough that the Crown accepts as a worthwhile trade-off for Manticore shipping loss. But even then I don't think it will be the case because of the Lynx terminus. That didn't exist until a few years ago and now is the way to > 85% of the SEM's population. And because it's likely less than 25% of the SEM's economic output, it's got huge growth potential. The Manticore shipping can pick up there, a market that didn't exist until recently. And it's a domestic market and much, much closer. So the same ships can make more round-trips in the same time it would have taken them to service Solarian markets.

cthia wrote:But you just can't do that. It isn't good business. Before long, your friends and family will outnumber your regular customers. Manticore's merchant fleet presently enjoys an advantage over the Galaxy.

Also, why would you say "your friends and family will outnumber your regular customers"? Why wouldn't the Manticore Merchant Marine grow too?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:In addition to what tlb said above, this is not a zero-sum game.

It might be if it were the for the Junction alone, considering the Junction is reaching saturation. Since it's a finite resource, a Havenite ship that transits is not a Solarian ship that didn't and paid the full fare.

But even then, it wouldn't totally be zero-sum.

First, the Havenite ships are far more likely to transit to and from Trevor's Star and the Andermani to Gregor, while SL-bound ships would transit via Hennesy and Beowulf. So they might not be taking out from near-saturation transits and they'd be adding to the overall income of the Junction.

I don't know if any leg of the Junction is really reaching the saturation point of Astro Control's minimum allowed 60 second transit interval. (Actually with most freighters you couldn't get it that low because if you're over 6 mtons you're locking the Junction down for more than 60 seconds)



I wonder if as a segment does approach full saturation whether they might shift the regs to maximize cargo volume through the junction by insisting on only 6 mton ships being used for that hop -- as that's how you can get the most cargo through per hour while obeying the 60 second minimum interval regulation.

cthia wrote:

tlb wrote:
PS: Where does it say: "Manticore wants to revisit the agreement Beowulf is getting because it is a bit lopsided. Beowulf is making out like a bandit."?

That came out of House of Steel. I discussed it in the opening post of the same thread... Did the MBS corner the market on trade?

I embellished it a bit upstream for dramatic effect, but it is true that the MBS was considering revisiting the agreement. Because it was unbalanced is my take on it. And, considering that, why would they want to enter into such a crazy agreement with a much bigger Haven? It seems to me like shooting yourself in the foot, financially.

If the proposal is talking about equality in junction use, that is terrible. It is as bad as giving your friends and family free food in your restaurant. It is a business. You don't mix business with pleasure! The part about coupons was my facetiousness acting up again. (I hate it when it does that.) But there was a bit of reality involved. Lower junction fees would be bad enough. But completely free? Heck, Beowulf doesn't get that and the MBS isn't too happy with their deal either. Again, according to HoS.

.

Except if you look at the book House of Steel you'll see that while the Junction Treaty was renegotiated in King Rodger's time; it was to increase the

The original treaty between Manticore, Beowulf, San Martin, and Henessey Manticore unilaterally granted each:
* A shared sovereignty of their respective terminus (though as the original discover, Manticore was not required to do so),
* identical shares of the Junction revenue (though how much of the total revenue they're splitting is not stated)
* the same discounted transit fees

Which is basically a huge gift to the then newly settled San Martin and Hennesy which weren't in a position to protect their terminus.

The updated treaty the Rodger's government negotiated, back in 1967 PD, got Manticore back exclusive sovereignty of the Beowulf and Hennesy three remote termini, in exchange for giving those two governments an even greater share of the transit fees, plus effectively a secret mutual defense treaty, and the rights to deploy Manticoran warships to protect those two remote termini. (San Martin wasn't willing to sign any such agreement out of fear of provoking Haven -- though I assume the original treaty with them was considered void, or at least in abeyance, after Haven went ahead and annexed them)

Seems to rather undermine your argument that the treaty update in question was a) 55 years ago, and b) Manticore making it more economically favorable for Beowulf (and Henessey).


I don't see anything in House of Steel, or otherwise, saying that they want to renegotiate it again to change that fact.

Jonathan_S wrote: plus effectively a secret mutual defense treaty,

Is there anything dumber than a secret mutual defense treaty?

I can only think of one:
Dr. Strangelove: Of course, the whole point of a Doomsday Machine is lost if you KEEP IT A SECRET! Why didn't you tell the world, eh?
Ambassador de Sadesky: [Sheepishly] It was to be announced at the Party Congress on Monday. As you know, the Premier loves surprises.

kzt wrote:Is there anything dumber than a secret mutual defense treaty?

The war that results of each party activating their treaty obligations.

q.v. World War I.

kzt wrote:Is there anything dumber than a secret mutual defense treaty?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:The war that results of each party activating their treaty obligations.

q.v. World War I.

Although Russia had an interest in Serbia, as a fellow Slavic country; there was no formal treaty involved. In Germany's "blank check" to Austria-Hungary, there was the suggestion that Germany would prevent Russia from interfering; but the Kaiser had lost influence with the Tsar over the Russo-Japanese disaster.

The state of military requirements were such that a German mobilization could not stop short of war; although that was not necessarily true in Russia.

My understanding is that in the crises prior to this point the Kaiser and Archduke Ferdinand (who were friends) had been moderating influences; but now with one dead and the other angry about that, there was nothing to prevent the final result.