The break up of the Solarian League

OrlandoNative wrote:

Rincewind wrote:Ever since I read in A Rising Thunder how Oravil Barregos had foreseen the break up of the Solarian League & prepared accordingly I have wondered about the following:

How many other systems have also foreseen the break up of the Solarian League & started preparing accordingly?

If an Office of Frontier Security Sector Governor can foresee it long enough ago for him to prepare his Sepoy Option then surely some of the system governments within the League could also have predicted it: (I am not including those systems of the RF as they have been part of a conspiracy to cause it to happen). And, if they could predict it, then take steps to take advantage of or, at the very least, minimise the effects of?

Thoughts anyone?

Barregos was an atypical sector governor. He actually cares about the welfare of his sector. Most of the rest are "captured by the system"; where their only concern is how much they can "milk" out of the "cow". For them, things have been going on pretty much unchanged for so long they can't really conceive of future change.

I wasn't actually thinking about OFS Sector Governors. As you say Oravil Barregos was atypical of them. I was actually thinking about Solarian League Member Systems, especially some of the Core Systems, which would have been long established polities well before the Solarian League was created.

darrell wrote:
remember how mesa likes to load multiple strings in their bow's. Firebrant could be looked at as principally an attempt to embarrass and discredit manticore. the same is true for a lot of the MAlign's otehr operations.

Analysts lile oceans razor. We have multiple actions aimed at discrediting the grand alliance. I doubt that many if any would look deeper to see that the primary mission is to break up the SL, and discrediting the GA is only a side benifit.

Agreed, the MA's goal has always been to create as much chaos as possible throughout human space, especially the League and its sphere of influence (which, come to think of it, really encompasses virtually all of human space with a handful of notable exceptions). The Havenite Wars were intended to eliminate those exceptions as viable threats while the RF swooped in to 'save' humanity from that chaos.

The spanner in the works is of course that no amount of planning can foresee ALL possible outcomes or developments, so now the MA is faced with a stronger-than-ever Haven Sector that is aware of the enemy in the shadows at the most inopportune moment - when the process of inducing the aforementioned galaxy-wide chaos had not only already begun but has reached a point of no return.

Moreover, where the MA had expected no serious opposition to the RF's future intervention as saviour of the human race, now it finds itself in the unanticipated position of having been forced to move into hiding by a wary and vengeful enemy that has proven more politically savvy than anyone in the MA has ever thought AND will be on the lookout for exactly the kind of political-military play that the MA had in mind for the RF.

In short, no one could have anticipated Honor.

Sure, the human galaxy is still going to fall into chaos, there will still be untold human suffering at an unimaginable scale, and there will still emerge innumerable opportunistic warlords to drive that chaos and suffering, BUT the MA will be unable to take its planned-for place at the helm of a planned-for CONTROLLED crash. Instead, THAT role will fall to the Grand Alliance, which adheres to a completely different moral worldview. As such, the galaxy that will emerge from the wreckage of the League's fall will look much different from the one the MA intended to create.

It occurs to me that it might help to clarify thinking on this if it's pointed out that Firebrand's ops are _not_ aimed at the Grand Alliance, but specifically at Manticore. The GA was still inconceivable when he was sent out - in fact, I suspect that their denouement was originally intended to synchronise with the final defeat of the SKM by Haven following Oyster Bay. The fact that he's now scrambling to move up the schedule is likely a response to Haven not leaping on Manticore's back as expected, but I don't _think_ there had been time to factor in the GA the last time we saw him.

Nico wrote:

darrell wrote:
remember how mesa likes to load multiple strings in their bow's. Firebrant could be looked at as principally an attempt to embarrass and discredit manticore. the same is true for a lot of the MAlign's otehr operations.

Analysts lile oceans razor. We have multiple actions aimed at discrediting the grand alliance. I doubt that many if any would look deeper to see that the primary mission is to break up the SL, and discrediting the GA is only a side benifit.

Agreed, the MA's goal has always been to create as much chaos as possible throughout human space, especially the League and its sphere of influence (which, come to think of it, really encompasses virtually all of human space with a handful of notable exceptions). The Havenite Wars were intended to eliminate those exceptions as viable threats while the RF swooped in to 'save' humanity from that chaos.

The spanner in the works is of course that no amount of planning can foresee ALL possible outcomes or developments, so now the MA is faced with a stronger-than-ever Haven Sector that is aware of the enemy in the shadows at the most inopportune moment - when the process of inducing the aforementioned galaxy-wide chaos had not only already begun but has reached a point of no return.

Moreover, where the MA had expected no serious opposition to the RF's future intervention as saviour of the human race, now it finds itself in the unanticipated position of having been forced to move into hiding by a wary and vengeful enemy that has proven more politically savvy than anyone in the MA has ever thought AND will be on the lookout for exactly the kind of political-military play that the MA had in mind for the RF.

In short, no one could have anticipated Honor.

Sure, the human galaxy is still going to fall into chaos, there will still be untold human suffering at an unimaginable scale, and there will still emerge innumerable opportunistic warlords to drive that chaos and suffering, BUT the MA will be unable to take its planned-for place at the helm of a planned-for CONTROLLED crash. Instead, THAT role will fall to the Grand Alliance, which adheres to a completely different moral worldview. As such, the galaxy that will emerge from the wreckage of the League's fall will look much different from the one the MA intended to create.

Nico wrote:Sure, the human galaxy is still going to fall into chaos, there will still be untold human suffering at an unimaginable scale, and there will still emerge innumerable opportunistic warlords to drive that chaos and suffering, BUT the MA will be unable to take its planned-for place at the helm of a planned-for CONTROLLED crash. Instead, THAT role will fall to the Grand Alliance, which adheres to a completely different moral worldview. As such, the galaxy that will emerge from the wreckage of the League's fall will look much different from the one the MA intended to create.

and since Manticore, Haven, Grayson, and the andies all adhere to the Beowulf life science code, looks like the MA's philosophy is going to go down the tubes.

Louis R wrote:It occurs to me that it might help to clarify thinking on this if it's pointed out that Firebrand's ops are _not_ aimed at the Grand Alliance, but specifically at Manticore. The GA was still inconceivable when he was sent out - in fact, I suspect that their denouement was originally intended to synchronise with the final defeat of the SKM by Haven following Oyster Bay. The fact that he's now scrambling to move up the schedule is likely a response to Haven not leaping on Manticore's back as expected, but I don't _think_ there had been time to factor in the GA the last time we saw him.

Firebrands ops are aimed at getting protectorate systems to revolt. discrediting manticore is actually a secondary benefit, but unless you know the entire picture (which the GA doesn't) it would be easy to reverse the two. agreed however that it is manticore and not the GA that is the firebrands secondary target.

It would not surprise me to find that when firebrand replaced clambake, that clambake went to another sector of space and is doing the same with haven as the secondary target.

Darrell, that's precisely what I meant by 'completely different moral worldview'. The MA's ultimate goal has long since become corrupted from the original Detweiler's wish to genetically uplift all of humankind. By now, it's become clear that the MA intends to establish a galaxy-wide empire based on a genetic caste system, with its uplifted genetic lineages ruling in comfort and wealth over masses of 'normal' human slaves or serfs. I suspect that, although it has not been expressly stated, the MA is planning a kind of satrapy set-up, with a few families of Alpha-line gengineered humans supported by a somewhat more numerous population of Beta- and Gamma-lines ruling over specific territories.

Louis, even though the Grand Alliance has not yet been founded at the time Firebrand launched his operation, I do think that the particulars are generally the same. Manticore, with an intact military and reputation AND in a novel expansionist mood, represented an undeniable threat to the MA's masterplan. As such both that military power and reputation had to be curbed BEFORE Manticore could entrench itself too firmly in the Talbott Cluster.

Of course, the MA began to manipulate the diplomatic correspondence between Manticore and Haven well before the discovery of the wormhole connection with the Cluster, so clearly an attempt was already in the works to divert Haven and Manticore's attention from elsewhere in the Verge, which would have (and for a while did) allowed the MA to continue its activities without opposition.

It was Manticore's unexpected and speedy decision to accept the Talbott Cluster's petition for annexation that was the reason for the launch of Firebrand's operation. In the scope of things, his operation really was no more than a delay tactic, to allow the MA's strategists time to come up with a better, more comprehensive response to an unanticipated development.

But as we know from the last book, that response would never come. Instead, the one development (the discovery of the newest wormhole connection and Manticore's annexation of the Cluster) set in motion a rapid succession of other events and developments that the MA simply could not have planned for, and with its predilection for centuries-long planning found itself incapable of responding to with anything but yet more stop-gap measures.

darrell wrote:

Nico wrote:Sure, the human galaxy is still going to fall into chaos, there will still be untold human suffering at an unimaginable scale, and there will still emerge innumerable opportunistic warlords to drive that chaos and suffering, BUT the MA will be unable to take its planned-for place at the helm of a planned-for CONTROLLED crash. Instead, THAT role will fall to the Grand Alliance, which adheres to a completely different moral worldview. As such, the galaxy that will emerge from the wreckage of the League's fall will look much different from the one the MA intended to create.

and since Manticore, Haven, Grayson, and the andies all adhere to the Beowulf life science code, looks like the MA's philosophy is going to go down the tubes.

Louis R wrote:It occurs to me that it might help to clarify thinking on this if it's pointed out that Firebrand's ops are _not_ aimed at the Grand Alliance, but specifically at Manticore. The GA was still inconceivable when he was sent out - in fact, I suspect that their denouement was originally intended to synchronise with the final defeat of the SKM by Haven following Oyster Bay. The fact that he's now scrambling to move up the schedule is likely a response to Haven not leaping on Manticore's back as expected, but I don't _think_ there had been time to factor in the GA the last time we saw him.

Firebrands ops are aimed at getting protectorate systems to revolt. discrediting manticore is actually a secondary benefit, but unless you know the entire picture (which the GA doesn't) it would be easy to reverse the two. agreed however that it is manticore and not the GA that is the firebrands secondary target.

It would not surprise me to find that when firebrand replaced clambake, that clambake went to another sector of space and is doing the same with haven as the secondary target.

Alternatively, the Mesans are going to need to retreatr deep into interstellar space to their number two bolthole, and develop an opposing culture based on massive genetic enhancement, perhaps better designed than the last time. Or one of the RG planets will start supplying legitimate medical services that also remove dangerous mutations, thus elevating humanity by improving at the bottom rather than the top.

Darius and Beowulf? I mean, sure, Beowulf isn't a RF member, but legitimate biomedical science is the basis of its economic and political clout in the galaxy.

The RF still has a good chance of creating a substantial block of Systems which follow- in general- the Alignment program without announcing the fact to the universe at large. What they can't do is overtly use Alignmenet tech to accomplish their goals.

The Alignment is looking to 1st subvert the various institutions- medical, social, political- for the Systems that fall under the RF cover to Alignment ways of thinking. If they stick to the "saving" systems and helping them either fend off conquests or being prey in economic warfare and reduced to some version of colonialism, they will be able to insert Alignment values.

The RF really doesn't need to or want to directly engage the GA in combat nor expand their direct control (through alliances) into systems which get into trade agreements with the members of the GA. Even if the initial systems of the RF only create bubbles of four or five partnered systems (for self defence and interior trade zones) for each of the original RF systems, in the next 20 years, they will end up having massive influence. Remember that they will be "educating" another generation of children in each affected system with the world view of the Alignment even if it is not described as such. The Alignment doesn't really care how many systems are driven to economic destruction and or fall under dictatorships etc because they are supposed to be looking at a very long term goal. IF there are 3000 known systems which have access to star travel now (even if just passing freighters) it is going to take a LONG time to reeducate the populations to the Alignment philosophy and worldview. That it doesn't actualy start in 2000 systems for the next 50 years, "what difference does it make?". The goal is to subsume the SURVIVORS in the Alignment control, they don't care what actualy happens to the people.

Brigade XO wrote:The RF still has a good chance of creating a substantial block of Systems which follow- in general- the Alignment program without announcing the fact to the universe at large. What they can't do is overtly use Alignmenet tech to accomplish their goals.

The Alignment is looking to 1st subvert the various institutions- medical, social, political- for the Systems that fall under the RF cover to Alignment ways of thinking. If they stick to the "saving" systems and helping them either fend off conquests or being prey in economic warfare and reduced to some version of colonialism, they will be able to insert Alignment values.

The RF really doesn't need to or want to directly engage the GA in combat nor expand their direct control (through alliances) into systems which get into trade agreements with the members of the GA. Even if the initial systems of the RF only create bubbles of four or five partnered systems (for self defence and interior trade zones) for each of the original RF systems, in the next 20 years, they will end up having massive influence. Remember that they will be "educating" another generation of children in each affected system with the world view of the Alignment even if it is not described as such. The Alignment doesn't really care how many systems are driven to economic destruction and or fall under dictatorships etc because they are supposed to be looking at a very long term goal. IF there are 3000 known systems which have access to star travel now (even if just passing freighters) it is going to take a LONG time to reeducate the populations to the Alignment philosophy and worldview. That it doesn't actualy start in 2000 systems for the next 50 years, "what difference does it make?". The goal is to subsume the SURVIVORS in the Alignment control, they don't care what actualy happens to the people.

To some extent I do agree with you. There are so many factors to consider, from economic links to military-political alliances to shared cultural or ideological bonds. It's a nightmare. If we look at just the geopolitical situation in our real world, we should have some perspective on exactly how complex and intricate things would get in a reality where humans have spread out across thousands of worlds and habitats. There is no way that the end of the League will result in a simple interstellar political environment - not with trillions of humans, thousands of polities, who knows how many religions and ideological movements, and innumerable other factors and actors. Connections and power plays will be intricate, multi-layered and unpredictable.