kzt wrote:David has mentioned, more than once, that most of the SL has no SDF. Those that do are mostly only light units, like CA on down. They are something well less than 100 of the 1700 (iirc) SL members that have one or more SDs.
So basically, FF can show up with a single BC squadron to about 2/3rds of the SL and suggest they might want to rethink their plans and that system can't do squat about it.
While that's entirely true, I'm also saying that those most likely to secede in the initial waves are those systems with more than just a token SDF, and will require a more substantial investment in force to keep in.
Plus, Frontier Fleet is also going to be stretched and possibly overextended because they're supplying the ships for the League's planned commerce raiding operations against the Grand Alliance, and maintaining the League and OFS's hold over the Protectorates - the MAlign's been setting up sectors to attempt to/successfully secede/rebel and other places to revolt and just get stomped on.
I'm not arguing that any one system can't be forced back in, but I'm suggesting that there are going to be a lot more places trying to leave and/or that will be causing problems than the League can free up the forces to deal with simultaneously. Take an OFS sector that the MAlign's set up to successfully break away - that's basically the entire FF detachment assigned to the sector gone, which means retaking the sector will require probably substantially more force than was assigned, and will mean taking losses.