MATC

I'm not sure that hubris is the right word for Albrecht. Isabel and others are advisors. Albrecht is the decision maker and finally people in his position have to go with what they think needs to be done, advisors or no. Abraham Lincoln was once in a meeting where a certain course of action was being proposed which he favored but his cabinet opposed. So they had a vote. Lincoln called out the results: the yeas, one; the nays, nine. The yeas have it unanimously. There were nine advisors, but only decision maker...be he right or wrong.

I do agree with the term hybris for the group as a whole. The notion that they have the right to make choices everybody else is outrageous. And I think they live in a bubble where their worldview alone is seriously considered to the exclusion of others. This has been going on for generations and Albrecht is included in that. That is indeed hubris.

Don

n7axw wrote:I'm not sure that hubris is the right word for Albrecht. Isabel and others are advisors. Albrecht is the decision maker and finally people in his position have to go with what they think needs to be done, advisors or no. Abraham Lincoln was once in a meeting where a certain course of action was being proposed which he favored but his cabinet opposed. So they had a vote. Lincoln called out the results: the yeas, one; the nays, nine. The yeas have it unanimously. There were nine advisors, but only decision maker...be he right or wrong.

I do agree with the term hybris for the group as a whole. The notion that they have the right to make choices everybody else is outrageous. And I think they live in a bubble where their worldview alone is seriously considered to the exclusion of others. This has been going on for generations and Albrecht is included in that. That is indeed hubris.

Don

Great topic gang -- loved reading the thread. It's stuff like this that made me want to join the forum!

Would anyone consider that the Detwillers (or Albrecht in particular) are simply not "good on their feet" (i.e. improvisation)? The quote earlier in the string recalled that Detwiller had a plan for "this" .... even though "this" wasn't in their worst nightmares. However, they had a PLAN -- they're not thinking or improvising, they're still sticking with a PLAN, that is part of The Plan. And that, to me is their downfall.

Much of what we celebrate from the GA's POV is their ability to improv. Manticore and Haven bury the hatchet, and Pritchart proposes an alliance vs. the Sollies. Total improv -- and they make it work. Want to form a Grand Alliance and put Honor in charge of the fleet? Again, total improv. Divvy up the Mantie recovery effort by having Beowulf produce the missles while Haven builds the ships? Sure, why not? Sounds like a good idea -- make it work! While there may be a general, overall strategic goal in mind (survival being a good one), everything else is going on the fly to a large extent because of the overall trust in their key personnel to get it done.

Detwiller & Co don't seem to have that ability -- or don't trust their subordinates to essentially get it done. Or maybe they're not "wired" that way in their ultimate genie development. They're so focused on the total, ultimate outcome that improvising is either out of the question or so messy/costly that it's an extreme measure. Yes, the MA might adjust aspects of the plan -- timing, etc. -- but there's still that adherence to The Plan to an almost zealot levels.

Or am I totally off base here?

warspite1515 wrote:Great topic gang -- loved reading the thread. It's stuff like this that made me want to join the forum!

Would anyone consider that the Detwillers (or Albrecht in particular) are simply not "good on their feet" (i.e. improvisation)? The quote earlier in the string recalled that Detwiller had a plan for "this" .... even though "this" wasn't in their worst nightmares. However, they had a PLAN -- they're not thinking or improvising, they're still sticking with a PLAN, that is part of The Plan. And that, to me is their downfall.

Much of what we celebrate from the GA's POV is their ability to improv. Manticore and Haven bury the hatchet, and Pritchart proposes an alliance vs. the Sollies. Total improv -- and they make it work. Want to form a Grand Alliance and put Honor in charge of the fleet? Again, total improv. Divvy up the Mantie recovery effort by having Beowulf produce the missles while Haven builds the ships? Sure, why not? Sounds like a good idea -- make it work! While there may be a general, overall strategic goal in mind (survival being a good one), everything else is going on the fly to a large extent because of the overall trust in their key personnel to get it done.

Detwiller & Co don't seem to have that ability -- or don't trust their subordinates to essentially get it done. Or maybe they're not "wired" that way in their ultimate genie development. They're so focused on the total, ultimate outcome that improvising is either out of the question or so messy/costly that it's an extreme measure. Yes, the MA might adjust aspects of the plan -- timing, etc. -- but there's still that adherence to The Plan to an almost zealot levels.

Or am I totally off base here?

I think you've got a finger on something.

Part of it may be mindset. But part of it - maybe the reason they have that mindset - is a matter of their strategic situation.

Manticore and Haven have huge fleets, hundreds of worlds, and hundreds of billions of people behind strategic goals they can articulate publicly. They can make things happen with overt means. They may have to be tricky about using them compared to the Solarian League, because they would be overwhelmed if they met pure force with pure force, but they can still work toward those strategic goals using open force of various kinds in an open fashion. Think it up, agree among the principals, make it happen - and you've got every competent person on call to make that happen, and you can be totally honest with every one of them.

The Mesan Alignment isn't a star nation. It's only a ruling class in a generous sense. It's a conspiracy. It can influence a handful of SDF's; it can nudge the SLN somewhat with a whole lot of prep-work for specific purposes; and it has what amounts to a SDF worth of ships that can generate decisive results solely when they have the time for prep work and can get by unseen and unsuspected. That's less a conventional fleet than some space ninjas on retainer.

So they don't really have the means to improvise all that well. They've got things set up carefully, so adjusting the plan on the fly - without abandoning it or paring it down radically - is so much less of an option than it would be for a proper star nation. "Improvising" really is mostly a matter of pushing elements forward or backward in time, or delaying some indefinitely until the preparations go stale. Albrecht's reached for pushing forward as the go-to response, and I do think that's both a mistake and a result of thinking too little of the opposition and of Murphy. But in his defense, maybe I at least have been considering his alternatives as a bit more wide than they really are.

Of course, that may just mean that the call to abandon the darn Plan when things go badly enough off the rails - like Haven and Manticore cottoning to what you're up to and allying for kittens' sake - is all the more imperative. The Alignment just hasn't got the means to tweak their way out of where they've gotten to.

JeffEngel wrote:

warspite1515 wrote:Great topic gang -- loved reading the thread. It's stuff like this that made me want to join the forum!

Would anyone consider that the Detwillers (or Albrecht in particular) are simply not "good on their feet" (i.e. improvisation)? The quote earlier in the string recalled that Detwiller had a plan for "this" .... even though "this" wasn't in their worst nightmares. However, they had a PLAN -- they're not thinking or improvising, they're still sticking with a PLAN, that is part of The Plan. And that, to me is their downfall.

Much of what we celebrate from the GA's POV is their ability to improv. Manticore and Haven bury the hatchet, and Pritchart proposes an alliance vs. the Sollies. Total improv -- and they make it work. Want to form a Grand Alliance and put Honor in charge of the fleet? Again, total improv. Divvy up the Mantie recovery effort by having Beowulf produce the missles while Haven builds the ships? Sure, why not? Sounds like a good idea -- make it work! While there may be a general, overall strategic goal in mind (survival being a good one), everything else is going on the fly to a large extent because of the overall trust in their key personnel to get it done.

Detwiller & Co don't seem to have that ability -- or don't trust their subordinates to essentially get it done. Or maybe they're not "wired" that way in their ultimate genie development. They're so focused on the total, ultimate outcome that improvising is either out of the question or so messy/costly that it's an extreme measure. Yes, the MA might adjust aspects of the plan -- timing, etc. -- but there's still that adherence to The Plan to an almost zealot levels.

Or am I totally off base here?

I think you've got a finger on something.

Part of it may be mindset. But part of it - maybe the reason they have that mindset - is a matter of their strategic situation.

Manticore and Haven have huge fleets, hundreds of worlds, and hundreds of billions of people behind strategic goals they can articulate publicly. They can make things happen with overt means. They may have to be tricky about using them compared to the Solarian League, because they would be overwhelmed if they met pure force with pure force, but they can still work toward those strategic goals using open force of various kinds in an open fashion. Think it up, agree among the principals, make it happen - and you've got every competent person on call to make that happen, and you can be totally honest with every one of them.

The Mesan Alignment isn't a star nation. It's only a ruling class in a generous sense. It's a conspiracy. It can influence a handful of SDF's; it can nudge the SLN somewhat with a whole lot of prep-work for specific purposes; and it has what amounts to a SDF worth of ships that can generate decisive results solely when they have the time for prep work and can get by unseen and unsuspected. That's less a conventional fleet than some space ninjas on retainer.

So they don't really have the means to improvise all that well. They've got things set up carefully, so adjusting the plan on the fly - without abandoning it or paring it down radically - is so much less of an option than it would be for a proper star nation. "Improvising" really is mostly a matter of pushing elements forward or backward in time, or delaying some indefinitely until the preparations go stale. Albrecht's reached for pushing forward as the go-to response, and I do think that's both a mistake and a result of thinking too little of the opposition and of Murphy. But in his defense, maybe I at least have been considering his alternatives as a bit more wide than they really are.

Of course, that may just mean that the call to abandon the darn Plan when things go badly enough off the rails - like Haven and Manticore cottoning to what you're up to and allying for kittens' sake - is all the more imperative. The Alignment just hasn't got the means to tweak their way out of where they've gotten to.

Agreed ... the problem is that we go back to the "bubble theory" -- does anyone have the wherewithal to just say to Albrecht "screw The Plan" and provide some alternatives?

You raise an interesting point vis-a-vi star nation and conspiracy. Wouldn't the conspiracy allow for greater flexibility in terms of abandoning The Plan since the only folks who would know that happened are the ones making the decision? Or has the MA crossed their Rubicon so to speak?

JeffEngel wrote:

warspite1515 wrote:Great topic gang -- loved reading the thread. It's stuff like this that made me want to join the forum!

Would anyone consider that the Detwillers (or Albrecht in particular) are simply not "good on their feet" (i.e. improvisation)? The quote earlier in the string recalled that Detwiller had a plan for "this" .... even though "this" wasn't in their worst nightmares. However, they had a PLAN -- they're not thinking or improvising, they're still sticking with a PLAN, that is part of The Plan. And that, to me is their downfall.

Much of what we celebrate from the GA's POV is their ability to improv. Manticore and Haven bury the hatchet, and Pritchart proposes an alliance vs. the Sollies. Total improv -- and they make it work. Want to form a Grand Alliance and put Honor in charge of the fleet? Again, total improv. Divvy up the Mantie recovery effort by having Beowulf produce the missles while Haven builds the ships? Sure, why not? Sounds like a good idea -- make it work! While there may be a general, overall strategic goal in mind (survival being a good one), everything else is going on the fly to a large extent because of the overall trust in their key personnel to get it done.

Detwiller & Co don't seem to have that ability -- or don't trust their subordinates to essentially get it done. Or maybe they're not "wired" that way in their ultimate genie development. They're so focused on the total, ultimate outcome that improvising is either out of the question or so messy/costly that it's an extreme measure. Yes, the MA might adjust aspects of the plan -- timing, etc. -- but there's still that adherence to The Plan to an almost zealot levels.

Or am I totally off base here?

I think you've got a finger on something.

Part of it may be mindset. But part of it - maybe the reason they have that mindset - is a matter of their strategic situation.

Manticore and Haven have huge fleets, hundreds of worlds, and hundreds of billions of people behind strategic goals they can articulate publicly. They can make things happen with overt means. They may have to be tricky about using them compared to the Solarian League, because they would be overwhelmed if they met pure force with pure force, but they can still work toward those strategic goals using open force of various kinds in an open fashion. Think it up, agree among the principals, make it happen - and you've got every competent person on call to make that happen, and you can be totally honest with every one of them.

The Mesan Alignment isn't a star nation. It's only a ruling class in a generous sense. It's a conspiracy. It can influence a handful of SDF's; it can nudge the SLN somewhat with a whole lot of prep-work for specific purposes; and it has what amounts to a SDF worth of ships that can generate decisive results solely when they have the time for prep work and can get by unseen and unsuspected. That's less a conventional fleet than some space ninjas on retainer.

So they don't really have the means to improvise all that well. They've got things set up carefully, so adjusting the plan on the fly - without abandoning it or paring it down radically - is so much less of an option than it would be for a proper star nation. "Improvising" really is mostly a matter of pushing elements forward or backward in time, or delaying some indefinitely until the preparations go stale. Albrecht's reached for pushing forward as the go-to response, and I do think that's both a mistake and a result of thinking too little of the opposition and of Murphy. But in his defense, maybe I at least have been considering his alternatives as a bit more wide than they really are.

Of course, that may just mean that the call to abandon the darn Plan when things go badly enough off the rails - like Haven and Manticore cottoning to what you're up to and allying for kittens' sake - is all the more imperative. The Alignment just hasn't got the means to tweak their way out of where they've gotten to.

There is no question but what they are struggling with improvision. Having Zilwicki and Cachat escape and lay bare the existence of the Alignment was a real body blow, esp. since their operational MO depended on them being in the shadows, also forcing a premature execution of Houdini.

But the biggest mistake so far was the premature launching of OB. I recently reread SftS where Albrecht's logic in making that decision is explained. What it all seemed to amount to was that Albrecht panicked after hearing that Manticore had introduced new toys at Lovat that would once more give Manticore a decisive advantage over Haven.

Whether or not Albrecht and company can regain their footing remains to be seen. I agree with the school of thought that thinks that the best course for the Alignment right now would be to retreat back into the shadows as far as possible and stop making waves. The League is coming unglued. The RF is coming into being. There is no real need for further Alignment action at this time. If they let it alone and stay in their hidey hole at Darius, time will eventually allow them to get back on track.

Now we will see if the custodians of a centuries old conspiracy have the patience to do that. Maybe, but my bet would be no.

Don

n7axw wrote:"JeffEngel"]"warspite1515"]Great topic gang -- loved reading the thread. It's stuff like this that made me want to join the forum!

Would anyone consider that the Detwillers (or Albrecht in particular) are simply not "good on their feet" (i.e. improvisation)? The quote earlier in the string recalled that Detwiller had a plan for "this" .... even though "this" wasn't in their worst nightmares. However, they had a PLAN -- they're not thinking or improvising, they're still sticking with a PLAN, that is part of The Plan. And that, to me is their downfall.

Much of what we celebrate from the GA's POV is their ability to improv. Manticore and Haven bury the hatchet, and Pritchart proposes an alliance vs. the Sollies. Total improv -- and they make it work. Want to form a Grand Alliance and put Honor in charge of the fleet? Again, total improv. Divvy up the Mantie recovery effort by having Beowulf produce the missles while Haven builds the ships? Sure, why not? Sounds like a good idea -- make it work! While there may be a general, overall strategic goal in mind (survival being a good one), everything else is going on the fly to a large extent because of the overall trust in their key personnel to get it done.

Detwiller & Co don't seem to have that ability -- or don't trust their subordinates to essentially get it done. Or maybe they're not "wired" that way in their ultimate genie development. They're so focused on the total, ultimate outcome that improvising is either out of the question or so messy/costly that it's an extreme measure. Yes, the MA might adjust aspects of the plan -- timing, etc. -- but there's still that adherence to The Plan to an almost zealot levels.

Or am I totally off base here?

I think you've got a finger on something.

Part of it may be mindset. But part of it - maybe the reason they have that mindset - is a matter of their strategic situation.

Manticore and Haven have huge fleets, hundreds of worlds, and hundreds of billions of people behind strategic goals they can articulate publicly. They can make things happen with overt means. They may have to be tricky about using them compared to the Solarian League, because they would be overwhelmed if they met pure force with pure force, but they can still work toward those strategic goals using open force of various kinds in an open fashion. Think it up, agree among the principals, make it happen - and you've got every competent person on call to make that happen, and you can be totally honest with every one of them.

The Mesan Alignment isn't a star nation. It's only a ruling class in a generous sense. It's a conspiracy. It can influence a handful of SDF's; it can nudge the SLN somewhat with a whole lot of prep-work for specific purposes; and it has what amounts to a SDF worth of ships that can generate decisive results solely when they have the time for prep work and can get by unseen and unsuspected. That's less a conventional fleet than some space ninjas on retainer.

So they don't really have the means to improvise all that well. They've got things set up carefully, so adjusting the plan on the fly - without abandoning it or paring it down radically - is so much less of an option than it would be for a proper star nation. "Improvising" really is mostly a matter of pushing elements forward or backward in time, or delaying some indefinitely until the preparations go stale. Albrecht's reached for pushing forward as the go-to response, and I do think that's both a mistake and a result of thinking too little of the opposition and of Murphy. But in his defense, maybe I at least have been considering his alternatives as a bit more wide than they really are.

Of course, that may just mean that the call to abandon the darn Plan when things go badly enough off the rails - like Haven and Manticore cottoning to what you're up to and allying for kittens' sake - is all the more imperative. The Alignment just hasn't got the means to tweak their way out of where they've gotten to.[/quote]


There is no question but what they are struggling with improvision. Having Zilwicki and Cachat escape and lay bare the existence of the Alignment was a real body blow, esp. since their operational MO depended on them being in the shadows, also forcing a premature execution of Houdini.

But the biggest mistake so far was the premature launching of OB. I recently reread SftS where Albrecht's logic in making that decision is explained. What it all seemed to amount to was that Albrecht panicked after hearing that Manticore had introduced new toys at Lovat that would once more give Manticore a decisive advantage over Haven.

Whether or not Albrecht and company can regain their footing remains to be seen. I agree with the school of thought that thinks that the best course for the Alignment right now would be to retreat back into the shadows as far as possible and stop making waves. The League is coming unglued. The RF is coming into being. There is no real need for further Alignment action at this time. If they let it alone and stay in their hidey hole at Darius, time will eventually allow them to get back on track.

Now we will see if the custodians of a centuries old conspiracy have the patience to do that. Maybe, but my bet would be no.

Don[/quote]

----------------

Don & all --

I do believe I agree with you -- Detweiller and the Onion Core's BEST move is to drop back into the shadows for a century or so with the RF as the new public puppet that no one else knows about.
I think, though, that
(1) they will NOT retreat enough into the shadows.
(2) the RF / MA collection of unpublished wormholes will one by one be discovered
(3) their hidey holes will be discovered, especially if Zachariah McBryde can be captured ALIVE (since he doesn't have a GAUL guard anymore)

-- Stewart