--snipping--
Theemile wrote:SharkHunter wrote: Very good points on the "cash flow" problem, but that's all of Manticore right now, and Beowulf seems to be buying a lot of war bonds, which will get all of the major shipbuilders back in action.
Meanwhile... I think the Hauptman Cartel is likely still doing pretty well. They've still got all of the Silesian trade routes which were previously listed as a major revenue source [and is likely a stabilizing market, plus an abundance of any withdrawn ships from the SL they can use to serve new markets in the Haven system(s), or up-serve markets in the Andermani empire, more trade with the Talbott, Maya, and Madras Sectors, etc.
I'd think the second tier ship builders, etc. are pretty much toast for a longer term, however.
Silesia (~65 planets)and the Andermani (~30 planets) were already in the RMMM's basket - Haven and former planets are ~300 in number. The SL is just shy of 1800 heavily populated planets and the protectorates are somewhere between 200 and 1000 strong. So gaining Haven gains the RMMM a market <1/10 the size of the SL. Talbott is quickly maturing, but that's only 16 sparcely to moderately populated worlds.
The SL contained almost 2/3rds of Humanity (from The Universe of Honor Harrington), and the RMMM moved ~40% of it's trade. Nothing is going to make that all up. In a "real world" senario, I don't know how any of the RMN conglomerates would survive in a recognizable form.
I think we mostly agree, except for I would say "only the largest few would be able to survive". By example, in the US FedEx and UPS wouldn't totally dry up and disappear if we couldn't ship to the East and West Coasts for a while, though that's 50%+ of the population. Alot of VP's might get furloughed or go to low salary levels, mid level management promotions would suck for a while, they'd mothball a bunch of airplanes, etc. and offer great shipping deals to make sure their remaining planes, trains, and trucks are fully loaded with high-profit shipments, maybe offer additional services to Canada, the Caribbean, and South/Central America.
Similarly, the Hauptman Cartel and maybe the next two or three down would underwrite poor routes OR undercut a competitor on a marginal route that is worth developing, but not currently significant. Klaus & Co.'s hulls can dominate everywhere in GA space and just move to much lower profit margins per route and still survive.
