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Mesa is the boogy man it wasn't meant to be

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Re: Mesa is the boogy man it wasn't meant to be
Post by n7axw   » Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:57 pm

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Scuffles wrote:See I'm with SWM on this one. Open conflict as a means to dominating the galaxy is impractical at best and impossible at worst. There's just way too much galaxy out there to take, and if you do go about subduing everybody you're going to have the problem of keeping them subdued.

I'm not saying that the Alignment aren't perfectly happy to shoot people in the face, I'm just saying that they're also pretty smart and they have to recognize how bad it would be to have to pacify a hostile galaxy.

If they go conquistador they're going to start finding blocks of individual systems - many of which are going to have an industrial base equal to what Manticore had - banding together to fend them off. That's not surmountable for the Alignment because they don't have the military tech advantage that the GA has and they can't stand off hundreds of battle fleet SDs, let alone Haven sector warships.

The Alignment wants to position themselves by having large groups of systems sign up with them willingly. In an ideal galaxy (where they didn't accidentally create a massive alliance of sworn foes that just happens to be militarily capable enough to paste the navies of the entire galaxy at once) they wouldn't take a single system by force with the exception of any would-be warlords that can serve as examples of their goodness and peace-keeping skills.

Trying to conquer the galaxy just guarantees that a large portion of it will shoot back at you. Uniting the galaxy under your banner is not the same thing.


I agree that MAlign is not going to try to conquer the whole galaxy militarily for precisely the reasons you suggest. What I have said is that as the RF's military capability improves, they will become more willing to use overt military action to advance their ends. I will add by noting that those ends, while expansionist at any one moment in time will of necessity be limited. Nor will overt action be their only tool. They will still use covert action when they believe that will advance their goals. They will also use politics and diplomacy. Their goal is not conquest, but dominance. They will seek that by whatever vehicle seems best expedient.

Don
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Re: Mesa is the boogy man it wasn't meant to be
Post by Amaroq   » Tue Jul 22, 2014 10:37 am

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SWM wrote:I'm not going to wade back into the discussion. But I'd like to point out that some people are talking about what the Alignment's plans were originally, and some are talking about what the Alignment will have to do now that Manticore is throwing their plan off. To keep the discussion productive, it will be important to distinguish these two, and not accidentally cross the arguments, like crossing the streams in Ghostbusters. :) I recommend that people make clear which situation they are discussing in each post, to prevent accidental confusion (combustion?).


Good point. When we think of the Alignment's plans we tend to lump both the pre-GA and post-GA parts together but unexpected developments out Manticore and Haven's way have disrupted the original plans.

Without Manticore and the GA, how did the Alignment plan to splinter the SL? Just through orchestrated uprisings in crucial systems with RF members poised to take control?
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Re: Mesa is the boogy man it wasn't meant to be
Post by tonyz   » Tue Jul 22, 2014 5:32 pm

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n7axw wrote:Abnother thing that RFC hints at is the potential willingness and capacity of the Alignment to wage bio warfare. As far as I know, we haven't hashed this out here on the forums, but this has some truly nasty potential, bringing back one of the worst sides of old Earth's final war.


Yes. We've had at least two references, including one of Albrecht Detweiler's wife looking over a review of weaponized nanotechnology, to this. And there was Ellen D'Orville's fate in House of Steel, too. I suspect that somebody is going to deploy something nasty fairly soon, perhaps as a false flag operation...
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Re: Mesa is the boogy man it wasn't meant to be
Post by n7axw   » Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:25 pm

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tonyz wrote:
n7axw wrote:Abnother thing that RFC hints at is the potential willingness and capacity of the Alignment to wage bio warfare. As far as I know, we haven't hashed this out here on the forums, but this has some truly nasty potential, bringing back one of the worst sides of old Earth's final war.


Yes. We've had at least two references, including one of Albrecht Detweiler's wife looking over a review of weaponized nanotechnology, to this. And there was Ellen D'Orville's fate in House of Steel, too. I suspect that somebody is going to deploy something nasty fairly soon, perhaps as a false flag operation...


I suspect that when it happens, it will be a covert op but everyone will know who did it. And the hunt for the Alignment will really heat up.

Don
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Re: Mesa is the boogy man it wasn't meant to be
Post by Zakharra   » Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:41 pm

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n7axw wrote:
Scuffles wrote:See I'm with SWM on this one. Open conflict as a means to dominating the galaxy is impractical at best and impossible at worst. There's just way too much galaxy out there to take, and if you do go about subduing everybody you're going to have the problem of keeping them subdued.

I'm not saying that the Alignment aren't perfectly happy to shoot people in the face, I'm just saying that they're also pretty smart and they have to recognize how bad it would be to have to pacify a hostile galaxy.

If they go conquistador they're going to start finding blocks of individual systems - many of which are going to have an industrial base equal to what Manticore had - banding together to fend them off. That's not surmountable for the Alignment because they don't have the military tech advantage that the GA has and they can't stand off hundreds of battle fleet SDs, let alone Haven sector warships.

The Alignment wants to position themselves by having large groups of systems sign up with them willingly. In an ideal galaxy (where they didn't accidentally create a massive alliance of sworn foes that just happens to be militarily capable enough to paste the navies of the entire galaxy at once) they wouldn't take a single system by force with the exception of any would-be warlords that can serve as examples of their goodness and peace-keeping skills.

Trying to conquer the galaxy just guarantees that a large portion of it will shoot back at you. Uniting the galaxy under your banner is not the same thing.


I agree that MAlign is not going to try to conquer the whole galaxy militarily for precisely the reasons you suggest. What I have said is that as the RF's military capability improves, they will become more willing to use overt military action to advance their ends. I will add by noting that those ends, while expansionist at any one moment in time will of necessity be limited. Nor will overt action be their only tool. They will still use covert action when they believe that will advance their goals. They will also use politics and diplomacy. Their goal is not conquest, but dominance. They will seek that by whatever vehicle seems best expedient.

Don



I'd like to add these in as a possibilities; covert agents get one of the successor states to attack the RF, then the RF can be all righteous and justified in taking the war to that state since they were attacked first. Another option is allying to one of the successor states to help defend it from an attacker. That gives the RF a good inroad to weave their tentacles into their ally and a more forceful hand in reforming the societies of the worlds they defeated.

Both of these put the RF in a good light as being one of the harbingers of peace and order to the chaos in SL space since in the first, it's the RF that was attacked and in the second, they only aided an ally. Several incidences of that happening and the RF will have a good public face, especially if their covert ops is actively working to destabilize and make any tough neighbors seem like the aggressor. This way the RF could be seen as expanding only because other states won't leave them alone, and it would justify the RF building a large battle fleet.
Last edited by Zakharra on Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mesa is the boogy man it wasn't meant to be
Post by hanuman   » Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:20 am

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Scuffles wrote:See I'm with SWM on this one. Open conflict as a means to dominating the galaxy is impractical at best and impossible at worst. There's just way too much galaxy out there to take, and if you do go about subduing everybody you're going to have the problem of keeping them subdued.

I'm not saying that the Alignment aren't perfectly happy to shoot people in the face, I'm just saying that they're also pretty smart and they have to recognize how bad it would be to have to pacify a hostile galaxy.

If they go conquistador they're going to start finding blocks of individual systems - many of which are going to have an industrial base equal to what Manticore had - banding together to fend them off. That's not surmountable for the Alignment because they don't have the military tech advantage that the GA has and they can't stand off hundreds of battle fleet SDs, let alone Haven sector warships.

The Alignment wants to position themselves by having large groups of systems sign up with them willingly. In an ideal galaxy (where they didn't accidentally create a massive alliance of sworn foes that just happens to be militarily capable enough to paste the navies of the entire galaxy at once) they wouldn't take a single system by force with the exception of any would-be warlords that can serve as examples of their goodness and peace-keeping skills.

Trying to conquer the galaxy just guarantees that a large portion of it will shoot back at you. Uniting the galaxy under your banner is not the same thing.


Scuffles, no one is saying that the Alignment (or the Factor, as its public face) is going to go into conquistador mode now or even tomorrow. What we are saying is that it will become inevitable, eventually.

Now that the GA knows of the Alignment's existence, its various members will be far more alert for any covert attacks. Covert operations can take you only so far, and if the Alignment wishes to eliminate the GA's members as future opponents to its plans, it will have to challenge them militarily at some point. The same goes for some, if not all, of the League's successor states. Just because the League is playing ostrich wrt the news of the Alignment's existence and manipulation of League policy, does not mean that the League's successor states will all be equally unwilling to disregard that news. Some of them will take it seriously and will be willing to be advised by the GA as to how to counteract the Alignment's known covert tactics and methods, which will force the Alignment to act overtly against them, as well, in time.
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Re: Mesa is the boogy man it wasn't meant to be
Post by SWM   » Wed Jul 23, 2014 8:45 am

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hanuman wrote:Scuffles, no one is saying that the Alignment (or the Factor, as its public face) is going to go into conquistador mode now or even tomorrow. What we are saying is that it will become inevitable, eventually.

Now that the GA knows of the Alignment's existence, its various members will be far more alert for any covert attacks. Covert operations can take you only so far, and if the Alignment wishes to eliminate the GA's members as future opponents to its plans, it will have to challenge them militarily at some point. The same goes for some, if not all, of the League's successor states. Just because the League is playing ostrich wrt the news of the Alignment's existence and manipulation of League policy, does not mean that the League's successor states will all be equally unwilling to disregard that news. Some of them will take it seriously and will be willing to be advised by the GA as to how to counteract the Alignment's known covert tactics and methods, which will force the Alignment to act overtly against them, as well, in time.

That's not what everyone has been saying. Here's an example of what I was talking about before--confusion between original plans and current/future necessities. Some have been arguing that it was the Alignment plan all along that they would go conquistador, even before the Haven Sector became a problem. That's what I and some others had been arguing against, and Scuffles was agreeing with me. You are talking about something different.
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Re: Mesa is the boogy man it wasn't meant to be
Post by hanuman   » Wed Jul 23, 2014 12:28 pm

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Amaroq wrote:
SWM wrote:I'm not going to wade back into the discussion. But I'd like to point out that some people are talking about what the Alignment's plans were originally, and some are talking about what the Alignment will have to do now that Manticore is throwing their plan off. To keep the discussion productive, it will be important to distinguish these two, and not accidentally cross the arguments, like crossing the streams in Ghostbusters. :) I recommend that people make clear which situation they are discussing in each post, to prevent accidental confusion (combustion?).


Good point. When we think of the Alignment's plans we tend to lump both the pre-GA and post-GA parts together but unexpected developments out Manticore and Haven's way have disrupted the original plans.

Without Manticore and the GA, how did the Alignment plan to splinter the SL? Just through orchestrated uprisings in crucial systems with RF members poised to take control?


Actually, I think the Alignment's planners would have had to plan for eventual overt military action right from the start. There is simply no way that it could possibly implement its grand design throughout human space without resorting to open military operations - human-occupied space is simply too extensive and complex for the Alignment to depend solely on covert operations and methods to achieve its goals.

Also, only an imbecile - and whatever else, the Alignment's leaders ain't idjits - could launch such a complicated and comprehensive conspiracy without allowing for the very real likelihood that a similar scenario to the one now pertaining would exist at the time (or shortly after) it finally moved into the end game phase of its conspiracy. (By that I mean, a scenario where a number of strong star nations exist that are aware of the Alignment's existence and general goals).
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Re: Mesa is the boogy man it wasn't meant to be
Post by hanuman   » Wed Jul 23, 2014 12:39 pm

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SWM wrote:
hanuman wrote:Scuffles, no one is saying that the Alignment (or the Factor, as its public face) is going to go into conquistador mode now or even tomorrow. What we are saying is that it will become inevitable, eventually.

Now that the GA knows of the Alignment's existence, its various members will be far more alert for any covert attacks. Covert operations can take you only so far, and if the Alignment wishes to eliminate the GA's members as future opponents to its plans, it will have to challenge them militarily at some point. The same goes for some, if not all, of the League's successor states. Just because the League is playing ostrich wrt the news of the Alignment's existence and manipulation of League policy, does not mean that the League's successor states will all be equally unwilling to disregard that news. Some of them will take it seriously and will be willing to be advised by the GA as to how to counteract the Alignment's known covert tactics and methods, which will force the Alignment to act overtly against them, as well, in time.

That's not what everyone has been saying. Here's an example of what I was talking about before--confusion between original plans and current/future necessities. Some have been arguing that it was the Alignment plan all along that they would go conquistador, even before the Haven Sector became a problem. That's what I and some others had been arguing against, and Scuffles was agreeing with me. You are talking about something different.


SWM, I am one of those who think that the Alignment's been planning for overt conquest all along. What I might not have been so clear about, is that I do not reject the 'covert option' outright. I simply feel that covert operations can go only so far, before it becomes necessary to use open military force to achieve the Alignment's goals. Human space (and the League) is simply too huge, and human beings are simply too complex, for even something like the Alignment to plan for all contingencies - or, for that matter, for covert means to deal with all possible scenarios.
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