Speculating on the GA-MAlign Conflict

I think it would mean that Tasmania is somewhere out on the edge of the Shell but not on a direct line from Sol to Manticore, probably galactic northeast or northwest from Sol. Either way, any backup force now gathered at Tasmania would be about 200 light years from Beowulf.

A while back someone suggested that there were several months between the end of ART and COG. That would seem to imply that either the raid on Beowulf has already happened and been dealt with or is not happening at all since no one in COG expresses any concern about it... Comments??

Don

Okay, here is what we know:
Tasmania-Manticore: a bit over 400 light-years (59 days by warship)
Manticore-Beowulf: 475 light-years
Manticore-Sol: 512 light-years

From this, we can see that the minimum separation of Sol and Tasmania is 112 light-years, or a minimum of 13.6 days (two weeks) by courier.

From the text Dafmeister cites, we see that from the time Filareta gets his orders to his arrival at Manticore is predicted to be "a little over six weeks". Subtracting the known travel time of 59 days from Tasmania to Manticore, we conclude that Filareta was expected to take about two weeks to between receipt of orders and departure. Combining that with "two and a half months from the date we dispatch them," that means that the travel time for the dispatch is about one month.

So, the minimum distance from Sol to Tasmania is two weeks by courier, but this text implies it is closer to one month. That would be about 250 light-years.

If we assume Beowulf is directly on the Sol-Manticore line (it is close enough for a good approximation), then we can calculate how far Tasmania would be from Beowulf if it is 250 light-years from Sol. It comes out to about 234 light-years, or 34.2 days travel by warship.

So, if Tasmania is on the line between Beowulf and Manticore (i.e. the minimum possible separation with Beowulf), a dispatch from Sol can get the fleet to Beowulf in 13.6+10.5= 24.1 days (plus preparation time). But if Tasmania is 250 light-years from Sol, then a dispatch from Sol can get the fleet to Beowulf in 30.5+34.2= 64.7 days (plus preparation time).

Filareta had not expected to be sent out to fight a battle, so they allowed him 2 weeks preparation (though he actually took longer). The new fleet does expect to receive orders for imminent battle, so they will presumably be ready to move within days. That means that with the 250 ly Sol-Tasmania distance, the fleet could be in Beowulf in less than 70 days. If it takes two months to put Mycroft online, that's cutting it really close. It could be a race to see whether it is ready on time. Interesting story potential.

Guys, I'm not a mathematician or an astronomer, so I'm not even going to try and get involved in the discussion about distances.

However, there is one point I want to raise, about location. It seems that you all are working on the assumption that Manticore, Beowulf, Sol and Tasmania are all located on the same plane. Just a reminder that although it LOOKS like a plane on a two-dimensional map, the Honorverse is a three-dimensional sphere. Tasmania isn't necessarily located on the same plane (or even close to it) as Manticore, Beowulf and Sol.

As for any SLN forces being assembled to attack Beowulf, I'd imagine that there is a sizable Battle Fleet detachment based in the Sol system itself - probably several hundred active superdreadnoughts besides the thousands in reserve stationed at Mars. That's only slightly over a week away from Beowulf, although I'd also think that the Mandarins would hesitate to weaken Earth's defences. They're bureaucrats, after all. Notoriously against taking risks.

hanuman wrote:Guys, I'm not a mathematician or an astronomer, so I'm not even going to try and get involved in the discussion about distances.

However, there is one point I want to raise, about location. It seems that you all are working on the assumption that Manticore, Beowulf, Sol and Tasmania are all located on the same plane. Just a reminder that although it LOOKS like a plane on a two-dimensional map, the Honorverse is a three-dimensional sphere. Tasmania isn't necessarily located on the same plane (or even close to it) as Manticore, Beowulf and Sol.

As for any SLN forces being assembled to attack Beowulf, I'd imagine that there is a sizable Battle Fleet detachment based in the Sol system itself - probably several hundred active superdreadnoughts besides the thousands in reserve stationed at Mars. That's only slightly over a week away from Beowulf, although I'd also think that the Mandarins would hesitate to weaken Earth's defences. They're bureaucrats, after all. Notoriously against taking risks.

I hate to tell you this, but the Honorverse IS a plane. Up until a few years ago, RFC didn't have any 3D mapping software, and all the transit times work out assuming everything is in the same plane.

I believe there's some ongoing work to change this, and I've heard a stray comment or two that the new movie series might redo it so it's actually 3 dimensional, but I've also heard that RFC has no intention of retconing the books.

That doesn't mean that some future systems might be off the plane, but everything up to a few years ago certainly isn't.

hanuman wrote:Guys, I'm not a mathematician or an astronomer, so I'm not even going to try and get involved in the discussion about distances.

However, there is one point I want to raise, about location. It seems that you all are working on the assumption that Manticore, Beowulf, Sol and Tasmania are all located on the same plane. Just a reminder that although it LOOKS like a plane on a two-dimensional map, the Honorverse is a three-dimensional sphere. Tasmania isn't necessarily located on the same plane (or even close to it) as Manticore, Beowulf and Sol.

As for any SLN forces being assembled to attack Beowulf, I'd imagine that there is a sizable Battle Fleet detachment based in the Sol system itself - probably several hundred active superdreadnoughts besides the thousands in reserve stationed at Mars. That's only slightly over a week away from Beowulf, although I'd also think that the Mandarins would hesitate to weaken Earth's defences. They're bureaucrats, after all. Notoriously against taking risks.

As JohnRoth said, David Weber's original maps were 2-dimensional, and all his distance measurements were taken from these 2-dimensional maps.

But an even bigger point is that we know the distance between Beowulf and Manticore, Sol and Beowulf, and Manticore and Sol. If you examine the numbers, you see that they are not merely in a plane, they are nearly in a line.

SWM wrote:As JohnRoth said, David Weber's original maps were 2-dimensional, and all his distance measurements were taken from these 2-dimensional maps.

But an even bigger point is that we know the distance between Beowulf and Manticore, Sol and Beowulf, and Manticore and Sol. If you examine the numbers, you see that they are not merely in a plane, they are nearly in a line.

For the simple problem of distance to Tasmania from Beowulf, it doesn't really matter whether the map is 2D or 3D -- the only difference is that the distance describes a circle instead of two points (the intersection of two spheres instead of two arcs.) It isn't until you add the distance from a third star from Tasmania and one of the other known points that elevation positioning becomes relevant.