KNick wrote:To KZT and Jonathan_S:
You are both right in your approaches to this topic. But I think KZT is over-estimating the time required and Jonathan_S is under-estimating the time. We are already 6 months into rebuilding the infrastructure with the first results of that due out in the next three to six months. Another year from now to finish that rebuilding to the point that Manticore is ready to start building ships again. 2 years or less after that to start rolling out the first ships. Call it 3 1/2 years from the Yawata Strike to the first new DD or CL, four years for the first CA or BC and five for the first SD. That includes all the time for testing the production lines and QC.
We actually have some numbers from Admiral White Haven, just after the Yawata Strike:
That means that what we have in commission and working up at Trevor's Star now is all we're going to have for at least two T-years. For any capital ships, the delay will be more like four T-years. Minimum.
That was before Beowulf and Haven joined the Grand Alliance, so I assume their worst-case analysis has been avoided. There were comments in ART implying that recovery is proceeding faster than predicted. The phrase "all we're going to have" implies two years to get the first
completed ships rather than two years before ship construction starts. But his forecast probably refers to ships coming off the line, and does not include trials and workup time.
White Haven's conversation took place at the end of February 1922. By the end of SoF, we are up to the end of August 1922. So I did underestimate a bit. If White Haven's forecast is running true, it will be one and a half years before the first ships come out of the yards. Those ships will probably spend even longer in trials and workup than would have been true previously, because the yards and yard crews are all new. But ships working up would be a fine place to put raw spacers fresh out of training (along with old hands to keep things running smoothly). They can learn a lot as the ship works through its trials.